India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman • Hacker News Board

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#311

Post by lotsofpulp » Thu, Dec 16, 2021, 10:00 PM UTC

glitchc wrote: post #298

closeparen wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prices show that people in the US have a goal of living lower-footprint lifestyles in walkable urban areas. We can't always get what we want. But which goals are attainable depends on policy choices.

They very much show the opposite over the past couple of years, ever since the pandemic. Housing prices in suburban and rural areas have exploded across North America. People seem to want their own slice of land distant from others.

Also, the most popular vehicles are pick up trucks.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#312

Post by rzanella » Thu, Dec 16, 2021, 10:00 PM UTC

pradn wrote: post #86

zpeti wrote: post #48

Global population will basically top out at 9-10bn. I look forward to the problems we will face then, and the apocalyptic narratives the media will invent about this new problem. Here's my shot at a few: - Even with better quality of life its going to be hard to make people who are over 70 work productively. But without children less and less people will need to take care of this large old age group. And they will ne…

There's certainly better opportunities for well-trained professionals in developing countries, but there's still a large pay differential. On top of that, immigrants to wealthier Western countries seek the low levels of day-to-day corruption, well-maintained infrastructure, good air quality, safety from violent crimes and theft, and access to leading universities and companies, where cutting-edge research and product…

Yep, I had a pretty comfortable salary and life back in Brazil, fear of violence around every corner made me leave.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#313

Post by decremental » Thu, Dec 16, 2021, 10:02 PM UTC

frosted-flakes wrote: post #297

woodruffw wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An incentive that is completely offset by the professional and career consequences of leaving one's industry for nearly two decades. Many women struggle to resume their careers after just a year or two of absence -- are we supposed to seriously believe that Hungarian employers will shrug off an entire child's development worth of absence? There is always an incentive to re-enter the workforce, in the sense that you (…

Better than stay-at-home mothers not re-entering the workforce. Which is the alternative.

I don't get why mothers not being at home is seen as bad. As though it's a greater good for society that instead they're punching in numbers into a spreadsheet at a widget factory. Sounds to me like the only winner there is the widget factory. It didn't used to have to be this way and maybe we should figure out why it has to be that way now, then fix that.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#314

Post by littlestymaar » Thu, Dec 16, 2021, 10:04 PM UTC

zpeti wrote: post #48

Global population will basically top out at 9-10bn. I look forward to the problems we will face then, and the apocalyptic narratives the media will invent about this new problem. Here's my shot at a few: - Even with better quality of life its going to be hard to make people who are over 70 work productively. But without children less and less people will need to take care of this large old age group. And they will ne…

> Already eastern europe are becoming rich enough that much much less people want to emmigrate.

Oh dear I wish it was true, but it isn't. Eastern Europe is facing a dramatic brain drain and it isn't slowing down. For instance, Romania has lost 15% of its population in the past 30 years (3.5M people!), most of the loss coming after 2000 and the decline being pretty much constant between 2000 and today. Czech Republic and Slovakia are the only country in the region with a growing population (a few percent in 30 years, even the aging Germany looks dynamic by comparison), and Poland is stagnating. Evey other country is losing population every year.[1] This is an ongoing demographic catastrophe for these countries.

[1]: https://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/cartes/fractures-est-ouest (In French, and the infographics is paywalled, but you can access an animated gif by right clicking on the image and opening it in a new tab)

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#315

Post by rhacker » Thu, Dec 16, 2021, 10:11 PM UTC

closeparen wrote: post #233

lotsofpulp wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I assume people not consuming as much as the people in the EU and USA have a goal of consuming as much as the people in the EU and USA.

Prices show that people in the US have a goal of living lower-footprint lifestyles in walkable urban areas. We can't always get what we want. But which goals are attainable depends on policy choices.

You're definitely in a filter bubble.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#316

Post by tshaddox » Thu, Dec 16, 2021, 10:14 PM UTC

downWidOutaFite wrote: post #189

baybal2 wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They very much do, but now they have to pay "carbon tax" invented by people who were responsible for most of the pollution until China

History isn't fair but this resentment is going to destroy humanity.

Well, no, it wouldn’t be the resentment destroying humanity, it would be the people who caused all the emissions destroying humanity.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#317

Post by X6S1x6Okd1st » Thu, Dec 16, 2021, 10:14 PM UTC

zpeti wrote: post #48

Global population will basically top out at 9-10bn. I look forward to the problems we will face then, and the apocalyptic narratives the media will invent about this new problem. Here's my shot at a few: - Even with better quality of life its going to be hard to make people who are over 70 work productively. But without children less and less people will need to take care of this large old age group. And they will ne…

> apocalyptic narratives the media will invent about this

The media did not invent the worry about "population bombs". That was thanks to what environmentalism was at the time & trotting out the same tired Malthusianism

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#318

Post by X6S1x6Okd1st » Thu, Dec 16, 2021, 10:15 PM UTC

akudha wrote: post #211

mastax wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many European countries have extremely generous benefits for raising children, but it has been broadly ineffective at raising birth rates - with the possible exception of the Czech Republic. I agree though that governments are going to try, and they may find a way to do it. There was a good episode of The Weeds podcast, "Baby making vibes," which talked about this. Some of it is focused on the American political lens…

Today we are at over 7 Billion. Suppose the population falls to say, 2 Billion or something like that. Is that a big problem? Like, what is the optimal number of people that this planet can support, without wreaking havoc on other species that also live here? 2 Billion is still a very large number... This might sound cruel, but the less humans the better.

Through what mechanism?

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#319

Post by Andrew_nenakhov » Thu, Dec 16, 2021, 10:18 PM UTC

zpeti wrote: post #48

Global population will basically top out at 9-10bn. I look forward to the problems we will face then, and the apocalyptic narratives the media will invent about this new problem. Here's my shot at a few: - Even with better quality of life its going to be hard to make people who are over 70 work productively. But without children less and less people will need to take care of this large old age group. And they will ne…

> But without children less and less people will need to take care of this large old age group. And they will need a bigger and bigger slice of the economy to survive.

Covid was fixing this, but then some renegade scientists came up with the vaccines and ruined everything. Again.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#320

Post by woodruffw » Thu, Dec 16, 2021, 10:22 PM UTC

frosted-flakes wrote: post #297

woodruffw wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An incentive that is completely offset by the professional and career consequences of leaving one's industry for nearly two decades. Many women struggle to resume their careers after just a year or two of absence -- are we supposed to seriously believe that Hungarian employers will shrug off an entire child's development worth of absence? There is always an incentive to re-enter the workforce, in the sense that you (…

Better than stay-at-home mothers not re-entering the workforce. Which is the alternative.

No, that isn't the alternative. The alternative is having an incentive for having a sufficient number of children to prevent population decline, combined with separate subsidies for child support (professional childcare, etc.). Even better, drop the emphasis on mothers: allow either parent to claim the tax deduction, or devise a structure in the deduction is graduated with a return to the workforce.

There are plenty of reasonable ways to incentivize people to have children, nearly all of which are applied elsewhere in Europe while also helping (if not outright avoiding) attrition in the workforce. Hungary's approach represents the significant deviation here.