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India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

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Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#201

Post by naravara »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #134
gopalv wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> is the least poor and most educated state I think this is the opposite of a "corrected for X factor" we usually see in studies - this is suggesting that economic situation is a bigger factor in fertility than religious practices. That should be a "duh", but having more resources resulting in fewer kids is the opposite of the malthusian hypothesis that this is limited by resources/mortality & is driven by personal c…

I am of the opinion that high birthrates are almost entirely a function of women’s financial independence. Childbirth/breastfeeding is such a costly experience for most women that I doubt many would opt for it more than 2 or 3 times if they had an option by not being dependent on men and/or access to easy and effective birth control.

I don't actually think women mind those costs as much. Once you have your first, assuming no complications, many women aren't so spooked by it.

I think what really happens is women with careers, hobbies, etc. have more opportunities for self-actualization that the demands of motherhood, especially of small children, get in the way of. So if women have the education and resources to pursue vocations outside the home, the opportunity costs of spending more months of your life getting sleep in 2 hour chunks are much higher. If, on the other hand, motherhood and the rearing of children is the only sort of legacy they can pursue because the glass ceiling is so low, they'll be willing to put more into it.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#202

Post by 8note »

tharne wrote: post #29
Swenrekcah wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I’m fairly sure they work their asses off already. Maybe not that gets measured in GDP thought.

I was going to say this. We have this weird habit in the West of trivializing raising one's own children, as if that's not "real work". A lot folks would rather raise their children instead of outsourcing it to strangers just to work a job they hate.

Raising children might not be what people are best at, and it's more efficient to work a job that can pay for this stranger, and to have money left over.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#204

Post by naravara »

bhouston wrote: post #47

This is good to a degree. But it does mean India joins much of the rest of the world with sub-replacement fertility with just a few outliers. The challenge now switches to how to move from sub-replacement to sustainable fertility. Japan and South Korea are leaders in sub-replacement fertility with not that much success in finding a path towards sustainable population. Both I believe are still dropping. This is the gr…

> Japan and South Korea are leaders in sub-replacement fertility with not that much success in finding a path towards sustainable population. Both I believe are still dropping.

Straight line extrapolations of demographic trends based on current rates aren't super reliable. The system is sort of self correcting. Once population gets low enough people will eventually start birthing more. The only place it gets to be an issue is geo-strategic, like small populations can just get overwhelmed by larger ones either culturally, economically, or militarily.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#205

Post by zuminator »

kspacewalk2 wrote: post #174
rmk wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless there are more pandemics and wars that intervene. This pandemic has killed an estimated 10-12 million people, according to the Economist. I think we are perhaps 80% of the way to an endemic with successive mutations becoming less and less lethal, so perhaps the true death toll is in the 15-20 million range. Any large scale war between nation-states can have a pretty high death toll if things escalate out of co…

>This pandemic has killed an estimated 10-12 million people, according to the Economist. Every time I see such claims, I still cringe at the thought of figuring out what it actually means. The details are gory, and can be summarized simplistically by saying "death with COVID ≠ death from COVID". In other words, figuring out true disease toll is a rather ambiguous problem, as stated. Can someone point me to a referenc…

It has nothing to do with PCR tests. The Economist based their estimate on a ML analysis based on excess mortality estimates.

[0] https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-the-economist-globa...

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#206

Post by kderbyma »

jasonhansel wrote: post #93

> the first national family planning program An odd euphemism for a program that, in practice, involved forced sterilizations and eugenics: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-30040790 According to Vox: "In 1975, Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi ordered the declaration of a national emergency. She seized dictatorial powers, imprisoned her political rivals, and embarked, with the help of her son Sanjay, on a…

yeah....I'm getting tired of people praising her...she was a psychopath and horrible horrible person.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#207

Post by Beaver117 »

distances wrote: post #157
ako wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

European countries may have generous benefits for raising children, but they’re not even close to covering the costs of children. I doubt there are many people who will decide to have children based on these benefits.

I agree, I wouldn't talk of extremely generous before the benefits cover a larger apartment to house the kids, and other indirect expenses. Unlikely to happen!

I'm sure some people are happy to move to the countryside for cheap larger housing if the government pays them

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#208

Post by sangnoir »

downWidOutaFite wrote: post #189
baybal2 wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They very much do, but now they have to pay "carbon tax" invented by people who were responsible for most of the pollution until China

History isn't fair but this resentment is going to destroy humanity.

I think it's the "Screw you, I got mine" race-to-the-bottom attitude will destroy us faster. Pointing out this ongoing problem is not resentment - no one wants to talk about per-capita carbon footprint, or have binding targets, because everyone is selfish.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#209

Post by munificent »

kspacewalk2 wrote: post #174
rmk wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless there are more pandemics and wars that intervene. This pandemic has killed an estimated 10-12 million people, according to the Economist. I think we are perhaps 80% of the way to an endemic with successive mutations becoming less and less lethal, so perhaps the true death toll is in the 15-20 million range. Any large scale war between nation-states can have a pretty high death toll if things escalate out of co…

>This pandemic has killed an estimated 10-12 million people, according to the Economist. Every time I see such claims, I still cringe at the thought of figuring out what it actually means. The details are gory, and can be summarized simplistically by saying "death with COVID ≠ death from COVID". In other words, figuring out true disease toll is a rather ambiguous problem, as stated. Can someone point me to a referenc…

The easy way to get a rough answer here is simply to compare the death rate from the same time of year a couple of years back. Assuming no other events that would cause a large swing in death rate, most of the variance can likely be explained by COVID.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#210

Post by bart_spoon »

kspacewalk2 wrote: post #174
rmk wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless there are more pandemics and wars that intervene. This pandemic has killed an estimated 10-12 million people, according to the Economist. I think we are perhaps 80% of the way to an endemic with successive mutations becoming less and less lethal, so perhaps the true death toll is in the 15-20 million range. Any large scale war between nation-states can have a pretty high death toll if things escalate out of co…

>This pandemic has killed an estimated 10-12 million people, according to the Economist. Every time I see such claims, I still cringe at the thought of figuring out what it actually means. The details are gory, and can be summarized simplistically by saying "death with COVID ≠ death from COVID". In other words, figuring out true disease toll is a rather ambiguous problem, as stated. Can someone point me to a referenc…

I'm fairly certain they use excess deaths, not necessary "deaths with COVID".
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