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India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

science.org

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Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#101

Post by lotsofpulp »

mastax wrote: post #76
bhouston wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I predict these issues will cause bigger problems than population expansion ever did. I think that unfettered population growth would have caused massive issues -- you could say that global warming is one of its legacies. But there will be a whole host of new issues as we face this new challenge of moving towards sustainable fertility. I suspect we will see a lot of government intervention with incentives towards l…

Many European countries have extremely generous benefits for raising children, but it has been broadly ineffective at raising birth rates - with the possible exception of the Czech Republic. I agree though that governments are going to try, and they may find a way to do it. There was a good episode of The Weeds podcast, "Baby making vibes," which talked about this. Some of it is focused on the American political lens…

I am curious what the market rate for pregnancy, giving birth, and breastfeeding will end up being.

After seeing what it is like, if I was a woman, even the best current European benefits would not be enough.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#102

Post by renewiltord »

Callmenorm wrote: post #2

Isn't this going to create another problem. Where the country gets old before it gets rich?

There is no amount of wealth that will help. Increasing societal wealth leads to increasing power to the old, who will use it to transform the young into a slave class.

This is most visible in America’s response to COVID but also in Prop 13 etc.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#103

Post by mpol »

zpeti wrote: post #48

Global population will basically top out at 9-10bn. I look forward to the problems we will face then, and the apocalyptic narratives the media will invent about this new problem. Here's my shot at a few: - Even with better quality of life its going to be hard to make people who are over 70 work productively. But without children less and less people will need to take care of this large old age group. And they will ne…

The dark horse in this race will be climate changes. These predictions look natural, as extrapolation from the current situation with decreasing growth in population.

I hope we (the politicians) don't hold tight to a strict plan, because if and when climate changes start to have a big impact, millions of people might have to move to different countries. These two things combined, decreasing population and massive movements of people, are hard to predict and will require a new way of dealing with these issues.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#104

Post by arkj »

> But religion is a small factor in fertility today, Muttreja says. “Hindus in Uttar Pradesh, for example, have a much higher fertility than Muslims in Kerala. There is no Hindu fertility or Muslim fertility.”

This is really strange he could have compared fertility rate of Muslims vs Hindus in Utter Pradeep and the same in Kerala. Instead he compares Muslims in Kerala vs Hindus in Utter Pranesh. Kerala is the least poor and most educated state in India and Utter Pradesh is one among the poorest and least educated states.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#105

Post by bhouston »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #101
mastax wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many European countries have extremely generous benefits for raising children, but it has been broadly ineffective at raising birth rates - with the possible exception of the Czech Republic. I agree though that governments are going to try, and they may find a way to do it. There was a good episode of The Weeds podcast, "Baby making vibes," which talked about this. Some of it is focused on the American political lens…

I am curious what the market rate for pregnancy, giving birth, and breastfeeding will end up being. After seeing what it is like, if I was a woman, even the best current European benefits would not be enough.

In Hungary, if you do it four times you are exempt from paying taxes for the rest of your life:

"Hungarian women with four children or more will be exempted for life from paying income tax, the prime minister has said, unveiling plans designed to boost the number of babies being born." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47192612

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#106

Post by nynx »

ElectronShak wrote: post #100

"Be fruitful and increase in number; fill the earth and subdue it. Rule over the fish in the sea and the birds in the sky and over every living creature that moves on the ground" [1] From the above portion of scripture, I wonder why we humans, are so concerned about population growth. Children are a blessing from God, have as many as you'd like. 1. https://biblehub.com/genesis/1-28.htm

Most people have a completely different mental framework than you and have more evidence-based ways of deciding whether something is good or not.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#107

Post by toomuchtodo »

raxxorrax wrote: post #72
toomuchtodo wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China’s birth rate is arguably declining because basic needs (housing) and child needs (education and child care) became expensive, applying back pressure on fertility (which is why the CCP and Xi is pushing “common prosperity” hard). People are selective on children already, which I don’t see a problem with; this is a natural result of a free society with healthcare where you can selectively terminate pregnancies yo…

People did abort girls more than boys so that there now are about 30% more boys than girls. Aborting girls was mainly done due to cultural and financial issues. This is nothing short of a catastrophe for the younger generation.

“What is the future owed?” is a complex issue. It’s an intergenerational compact, and the scope boundary is going to be fuzzy. I would argue future generations are owed robust human rights, a reasonably clean and non polluted environment, and the opportunity to live a purposeful life with dignity. Ensuring someone has a partner would fall out of scope.

I admit we’ve sort of painted ourselves into a corner and the deleveraging is going to be a bit wild over the next few decades.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#109

Post by fred_is_fred »

ElectronShak wrote: post #100

"Be fruitful and increase in number; fill the earth and subdue it. Rule over the fish in the sea and the birds in the sky and over every living creature that moves on the ground" [1] From the above portion of scripture, I wonder why we humans, are so concerned about population growth. Children are a blessing from God, have as many as you'd like. 1. https://biblehub.com/genesis/1-28.htm

https://biblehub.com/galatians/5-12.htm

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#110

Post by nsxwolf »

klyrs wrote: post #18
wavefunction wrote: post #3

My "modest proposal" for humane population reduction is: every individual is born with the right to have one child. A couple then, can have two children, which is below the natural replacement rate of 2.1 leading to a gradual reduction in human population naturally. People who don't want to have kids or can't for whatever reason could sell their right to others who want to have more than their normal allotment while…

What's your proposal for handling births that exceed allotment?

The Chinese had effective ways of dealing with excess births during the 1 child policy era.
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