Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

Post by panarky » Wed, Dec 15, 2021, 1:13 AM UTC

mikenew wrote: post #281

panarky wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a little optimistic? Sure, for this immediate wave [more transmissible less virulent] is better than [more transmissible more virulent]. But that's awfully myopic. What happens after that? Since mutation rate is a function of the number of viral particles, and more transmission means many more hosts incubating many more particles, we should expect to see more new variants, faster. So the probability just went up th…

Covid can't just mutate to become more and more transmissible off to infinity. The likelihood of a new variant being able to out compete Omicron is lower than a variant that can out compete Delta. There's also selection pressure towards milder disease, because someone with milder disease is more likely to be out in the world spreading it than they are to be quarantined at home. The probability of a more transmissible…

Post by mrtksn » Wed, Dec 15, 2021, 1:16 AM UTC

spookthesunset wrote: post #727

sjg007 wrote: post #685

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dunno, masks seem pretty effective as are capacity limits. That and rapid testing before gathering seems like a pretty good plan.

Mask and capacity limits until when? And why? What problem is being solved now? What’s the goal?

Post by somewhereoutth » Wed, Dec 15, 2021, 1:20 AM UTC

croes wrote: post #50

bognition wrote: post #9

There are a few important bits here: First: "The study by Discovery Health, South Africa’s largest health insurer, of 211,000 positive coronavirus cases, of which 78,000 were attributed to omicron, showed that risk of hospital admissions among adults who contracted covid-19 was 29 percent lower than in the initial pandemic wave that emerged in March 2020." and second: "At the same time, the vaccine may offer 70 perce…

Don't forget this part: "South Africa has a quite high seroprevalence of prior infection, particularly after delta, and in some parts of South Africa up to 80 percent of people were exposed to previous infection" So it could simply be that the mild cases were previously infected, what happens to an unvaccinated without prior infection is a different story.

Post by Wowfunhappy » Wed, Dec 15, 2021, 1:22 AM UTC

dfabulich wrote: post #768

ericb wrote: post #748

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your reply is totally off-topic for the parent you replied to.

I see why you're saying that, but I think you missed their point. Challenge trials might well allow us to make a safe vaccine available sooner to those who want it, but if we mandate a vaccine that has only undergone challenge trials and then that vaccine kills someone, it would certainly be politically disastrous for challenge trials.

Post by somewhereoutth » Wed, Dec 15, 2021, 1:34 AM UTC

robbedpeter wrote: post #481

chimprich wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A mild strain of covid that is contagious, leads to natural immunity and doesn’t require a vaccine is an absolute win win for the world. There is absolutely no evidence for this variant being less pathogenic. It is quite likely that the milder outcomes observed with this variant so far are because of immunity generated by vaccines and prior infections. The idea that this will make vaccines less essential is a fanta…

There are two primary factors driving virus evolution - not killing the host and defeating the host's immune system. Killing the host, at least with humans, is an evolutionary dead end, since we go out of our way to quarantine the body and destroy or permanently confine it. In humans, viruses typically evolve to be less severe and more infectious over time. There's significant evidence that omicron is less severe. At…