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Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#341

Post by magneticnorth »

patentatt wrote: post #310
laluser wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, as long as it is out there, it means it can continue to mutate.

But doesn't this demonstrate that the selective pressures tend toward higher contagiousness but less severe disease? So if there were a new variant, wouldn't it likely be just more of what makes this one favorable?

I think we aren't very confident yet that there's much selective pressure toward less severe disease - the reason being that the virus does a lot of its spreading before symptoms get to be their worst, so the severity of "worst" doesn't seem to factor into the evolutionary fitness of the virus. And this is supported by the fact that delta was both more contagious and more severe.

We seem to have gotten lucky that omicron is even more contagious but less severe; fingers crossed that bolsters worldwide immunity.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#342

Post by spookthesunset »

sjg007 wrote: post #202
iso1631 wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's interesting how Scotland, which kept a mask mandate, and England, which dropped it, affected cases. From start to end of October, cases per 100k, 7 day average Glasgow -- 300->220 Edinburgh -- 210->250 Manchester -- 290->220 Birmingham -- 250->280 4 similar cities, two with mask mandates, two without. And smaller ones Aberdeen -- 267->330 Southampton -- 300->410 Perth -- 320->260 Hereford -- 290->580 So there ma…

There are plenty of scientific studies showing that masks work.

All conducted in the heat of the moment where saying anything that gives the slightest wiff of "masks don't work" gets you shunned, your career destroyed, and all social media platforms labeling your content as "misinformation".

Yeah... I'm sure all these studies done post-2019 are totally legit though.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#343

Post by JamesBarney »

mohanmcgeek wrote: post #257
JamesBarney wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The doctor who found it, isn't a psychic. She doesn't have any information the rest of us don't. She's just describing her personal experience. And her experience is entirely consistent with Omicron appearing less virulent because it's infecting the previously infected and vaccinated who already have some degree of immunity.

> because it's infecting the previously infected and vaccinated who already have some degree of immunity. The doctor isn't a psychic but how do _you_ know this

How do I know "her experience is entirely consistent with Omicron appearing less virulent because it's infecting the previously infected and vaccinated who already have some degree of immunity."

1. We know that break through infections are less serious than infections to the unvaccinated and uninfected. 2. We determine virulence by # of hospitalizations (or other serious outcome) / # of infections 3. If we add more infections that don't have serious outcomes (because they are break through cases) that greatly increases the denominator without affecting the numerator. 4. This is how you could have Omicron be just as virulent as the original but look less virulent to a doctor. (Because of the break through cases)

Does that make sense?

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#344

Post by spookthesunset »

jkubicek wrote: post #236
Karsteski wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Not arguing with you, just genuinely interested on how long you would advocate for mask mandates? Would you be willing to accept mask mandates in perpetuity? This is the problem, isn't it? For how long will these mandates be in place for? Right now, it's clear that they won't end until populations start revolting.

> Right now, it's clear that they won't end until populations start revolting. That's not at all clear. My very cautious Northern California county dropped the mask mandates when cases started dropping this summer and only re-implimented them when cases and hospitalizations started to rise again. I don't see any reason for them not to drop the mandates again when infection/hospitalization rates drop down to acceptabl…

> acceptable levels

Define acceptable levels? And does this suggest we continue masking every winter when "cases surge"? There will always be a variant of covid. Always. It's never going away. Basing mask mandates of any metric, be it cases, hospitalizations or deaths means every winter you'll be wearing a state mandated mask.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#345

Post by spookthesunset »

mitigating wrote: post #132
AustinDev wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This may come off wrong but... COVID is not the first virus. Immunosuppressed people for all of human history have been falling victim to the common cold, the flu and other infections most humans can deal with safely. You can't stop the world economy and the benefit that brings to the majority of society to save a fraction of a percentage point of the population that is Immunocompromised.

How does wearing a mask hurt the economy?

I personally go out a heck of a lot less with these insane mask mandates. I hate wearing a mask.

Plus many of these people arguing to keep them around forever forget that actual living humans work at these businesses. It takes a lot of privilege to suggest employees should continue wearing masks forever to make a small set of extremely fearful customers feel "safe". I bet 99% of the "pro mask" people on are not in a place requiring them to wear a mask 40 hours a week.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#347

Post by ok123456 »

jpambrun wrote: post #333
ok123456 wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Data shows otherwise. In ZA over 85% of cases are omicron from not existing last month.

There is literally ~90% more cases per day compared to 2 weeks ago in South Africa..

Vast majority of those are mild illness or where it was a secondary finding. There's been a sharp decline in the number of hospitalizations requiring additional oxygen.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#348

Post by spookthesunset »

ceejayoz wrote: post #171
aantix wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you attend the game if it were 11 people? Because that's what you do every time you drive. 11 crash fatalities per 100,000 people. https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state...

Driving has benefits. Getting infected with COVID does not.

> Getting infected with COVID does not.

Going to a live game has benefits. Do those not matter?

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#349

Post by spookthesunset »

sjg007 wrote: post #287
gjsman-1000 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would suspect that most people who are were already vulnerable have already passed or built immunity if the virus is equally dangerous, resulting in a lower than equal death rate despite equivalent risk. Although... Can we never, not even once, be a little optimistic? To me, the news that we may be replacing COVID with a less severe strain is some of the best news of the year. COVID clearly isn't going away at this…

Hope is not a strategy.

Nor is irrational panic

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#350

Post by Mindwipe »

fshbbdssbbgdd wrote: post #326
roody15 wrote: post #175

This is honesty good news. The best case scenario is a new less deadly highly contagious strain that become the most dominant and spreads worldwide. Way too many comments and articles that try and keep the fear train running full steam. A mild strain of covid that is contagious, leads to natural immunity and doesn’t require a vaccine is an absolute win win for the world.

The big question is whether the disease is genuinely milder, or whether the mild cases are just a consequence of the virus infecting people who are partially immune (due to the immune escape properties). We’ll learn the answer in a few weeks when the strain has had a chance to infect the old and unwell and we will see if the hospitalizations and deaths increase.

Hospitalisations and deaths will likely increase regardless, as so many more people will be infected, even if it's proportionately less dangerous to a given individual. But I agree, more data in the next few weeks are what we need to make genuine determinations.
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