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Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#81
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a little optimistic? Sure, for this immediate wave [more transmissible less virulent] is better than [more transmissible more virulent]. But that's awfully myopic. What happens after that? Since mutation rate is a function of the number of viral particles, and more transmission means many more hosts incubating many more particles, we should expect to see more new variants, faster. So the probability just went up th…

It's a miracle that the human race has survived this long, and COVID is clearly not driving us to extinction.

Is it optimism to settle for any outcome that's better than extinction?

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#82
Omicron has been found in 38 countries and there are still no deaths caused by it. [1] The media are running with the story that the first death from Omicron just happened in the UK, but read Boris Johnson's quote:

"Sadly at least one patient has now been confirmed to have died with Omicron," Johnson told reporters [2]

This sounds batshit crazy, because it is, but in the UK, if you die from something unrelated while infected with SARS-COV-2, it's counted as a COVID death. [3] The key word in Boris' announcement is "with".

1: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/3/new-york-becomes-fo...

2: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-says-omicron-spread...

3: https://ukhsa.blog.gov.uk/2020/08/12/behind-the-headlines-co...

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#83
post #56
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> COVID clearly isn't going away at this point, so by all means try to replace it with something weaker! Probably naive to think we could totally eradicate it within a couple of years, particularly as far as vaccine fearmongering is concerned. Would be nice to see it join Smallpox and Polio though. That said, we've accepted an annual winter uptick in flu infections and we just tell people most vulnerable to get their…

> I would still call that a victory overall. Humanity declared victory over every single pathogen to date (eradicated, contained or seasonal) because we are still here and thriving. We should go on with our lives.

In the mean time we should do whatever we can to avoid filling hospitals to capacity.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#84
post #70

Yes. Covid will continue to mutate to become more contagious and less deadly. This is the natural progression of endemic viruses, they don't want to kill their hosts and they want to spread.

By the time people die of covid they've already spread the virus. Generally by the time people die they've cleared the virus. It's the inflammatory response that kills them. There's really no evolutionary pressure for covid to become less virulent since people can spread it prior to being symptomatic.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#85
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would suspect that most people who are were already vulnerable have already passed or built immunity if the virus is equally dangerous, resulting in a lower than equal death rate despite equivalent risk. Although... Can we never, not even once, be a little optimistic? To me, the news that we may be replacing COVID with a less severe strain is some of the best news of the year. COVID clearly isn't going away at this…

> I would suspect that most people who are were already vulnerable have already passed or built immunity if the virus is equally dangerous, resulting in a lower than equal death rate despite equivalent risk. You are forgetting about the most vulnerable group of all: immunosuppressed people. They cannot mount a sufficient immune response, in severe immunosuppression like after a transplant event months or years after.…

This may come off wrong but... COVID is not the first virus. Immunosuppressed people for all of human history have been falling victim to the common cold, the flu and other infections most humans can deal with safely. You can't stop the world economy and the benefit that brings to the majority of society to save a fraction of a percentage point of the population that is Immunocompromised.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#86
post #21

I have a question for anyone who has a serious level of knowledge on virus evolution: As viruses evolve over time is there any correlation to severity - do they have trade offs as they evolve? I am hoping that it would be some kind of trade off that the virus makes in that it can spread more easily but not be as severe (I understand that it is unlikely nature requires a trade-off). I ask as my concern is that while t…

Sort of. Sometimes. Viruses evolve according to evolutionary pressures. I'm surprised we don't see Covid mutations that invalidate PCR tests - perhaps it's too soon, or even, who knows, maybe they are there and we don't know? The common trope is that if the virus is too deadly, then it doesn't have a chance to find new hosts. This is kind-of what happened to "SARS-1" - it tended to kill its hosts before they could pa…

Apparently there are some variants of Omicron that can't be detected with current PCR tests. We may need to update the list of primers at some point.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/07/scientists-fin...

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#87

The data on severity is still difficult to transfer across countries. What seems reasonably certain is that vaccinations and previous infections do protect reasonably well against hospitalization and death. It is still not clear how the unvaccinated and not infected will fare. And the speed of this variant is enormous. We're seeing a doubling time between 2 to 3 days in several countries like Denmark or the UK. That…

You gotta be careful with those doubling times. Is that due to the raw number of tests being done increasing substantially? If it is unnormalized raw reported numbers then they can't exactly be used to infer the doubling time without more information. I know this is something everyone must know by now, but you will still see incorrect comparisons in media.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#88
post #70

Yes. Covid will continue to mutate to become more contagious and less deadly. This is the natural progression of endemic viruses, they don't want to kill their hosts and they want to spread.

By the time people die of covid they've already spread the virus. Generally by the time people die they've cleared the virus. It's the inflammatory response that kills them. There's really no evolutionary pressure for covid to become less virulent since people can spread it prior to being symptomatic.

There absolutely is pressure because you spread it for longer & to more people if you’re not horribly symptomatic or dead.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#89
post #13

The title is misleading. It is possible that Omicron is just as severe and that the effect in the study is because a large percentage of the population had some immunity from a previous infection or vaccine. > South Africa has a quite high seroprevalence of prior infection, particularly after delta, and in some parts of South Africa up to 80 percent of people were exposed to previous infection. We don’t think it’s a…

I would suspect that most people who are were already vulnerable have already passed or built immunity if the virus is equally dangerous, resulting in a lower than equal death rate despite equivalent risk. Although... Can we never, not even once, be a little optimistic? To me, the news that we may be replacing COVID with a less severe strain is some of the best news of the year. COVID clearly isn't going away at this…

Hoping it's mild is great. Betting your life it's mild is dumb.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#90
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would suspect that most people who are were already vulnerable have already passed or built immunity if the virus is equally dangerous, resulting in a lower than equal death rate despite equivalent risk. Although... Can we never, not even once, be a little optimistic? To me, the news that we may be replacing COVID with a less severe strain is some of the best news of the year. COVID clearly isn't going away at this…

> a little optimistic? Sure, for this immediate wave [more transmissible less virulent] is better than [more transmissible more virulent]. But that's awfully myopic. What happens after that? Since mutation rate is a function of the number of viral particles, and more transmission means many more hosts incubating many more particles, we should expect to see more new variants, faster. So the probability just went up th…

This. When omicron and delta mate and produce offspring, we’re going to be screwed. Deltas virulence + omicron transceptability = the Great Wave of summer 2022. It will be a good year for Pfizer investors and Russia.
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