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The Great Bifurcation

stratechery.com

11–20 of 168 posts

Re: The Great Bifurcation

#11
post #2

I agree with the thrust of this article, especially this line: "For a long time I felt somewhat unique in this regard, but COVID has made my longstanding reality the norm for many more people. Their physical world is defined by their family and hometown, which no longer needs to be near their work, which is entirely online; everything from friends to entertainment has followed the same path." The unbundling of physic…

I think the author is stretching the separation of the online world from the 'real world' to support the bifurcation thesis. The online world isn't a separate reality or separate world.

'This is a place with no need for traditional money, or traditional art; the native solution is obviously superior. To put it another way, “None of this real world stuff has any digital world value” — the critique goes both ways.'

The Metaverse isn't a computer game, or at least isn't only a computer game made up of entirely imagined content. As an extension of the internet it's primary purpose is to do away with the physical separation and distance between real world people and resources.

Fundamentally networks are communication systems, whether it's a telephone network, the Web or the Metaverse. It's about taking resources that are physically distributed all around the world and making them function as though they were right next to each other, re-composing them in different ways.

The first phase was to allow you to log on to a server anywhere in the world, instead of only the one in your building. The next step with the Web 1.0 was to link and re-compose documents regardless of what server they were located on. The next step with web 2.0 was to give access to applications running on any server anywhere, rather than just applications installed on your local computer. Social media was another phase which did for interpersonal relationships and communication what the original web did for documents.

The Metaverse doesn't really add any new capabilities here, it's just a new user interface. It's a VR browser instead of a web browser. It's not a new world anymore than the combination of facebook and twitter are a new world, they're not, they're just a way for real world people to talk to each other. With the Metaverse they will virtually stand next to each other instead. My kids already do this in Minecraft, Valorant and LoL.

The bifurcation thesis works in terms of businesses, and that's what Stratechery is about, but the article doesn't actually analyse the business implications of any of this.

Re: The Great Bifurcation

#12

As the online world socially envelopes our subjective view of reality, is anyone else who grew up predominantly online simply dropping out? I've been spending more time on my meatspace hobbies, watching TV and movies, and generally avoiding interactions with the internet outside of work. I feel better for it and like I had been wasting so much time before on internet arguments and getting dopamine-hits from outrage b…

I experienced a similar transition, albeit this was over 10 years ago. I've come to realize that a balance between both meatspace and hyperspace ends up being most satisfying. For me, the former was very valuable in introducing new experiences (learning and playing music, construction projects, hobbies like hiking and surfing), but the lack of cognitive and 'online' stimulation will make itself apparent over time.

Re: The Great Bifurcation

#13
post #2

I agree with the thrust of this article, especially this line: "For a long time I felt somewhat unique in this regard, but COVID has made my longstanding reality the norm for many more people. Their physical world is defined by their family and hometown, which no longer needs to be near their work, which is entirely online; everything from friends to entertainment has followed the same path." The unbundling of physic…

It wasn't until you mentioned texting your daughter in the next room that I realized that I've been doing the same with my wife. On several occasions I'll be in the living room, she'll be in the bedroom, and we'll text each other about what to eat for dinner. It never occurred to me to ponder about that sudden change in behavior.

I had been doing this way before the pandemic. Sometimes family members are wearing headphones and such, it just seemed polite.

Re: The Great Bifurcation

#14

I still cannot see any reason I'd want to connect any identifier or avatar across different online worlds apart from gaming. Am I missing something? For sure Meta wants to connect everything so it has a whole picture of its users so it can serve ads but why would people be compelled to connect their discords/linkedin/facebook or whatever personas when a key part of the web is anonymity, I don't even use the same hand…

Because you might want to leverage the reputation, credibility and following you built in one online community to another. Example: I learned about patio11 here on HN and was impressed by him actions in this community which lead me to follow patio11 on Twitter.

I agree that one of the great things about the internet is that you don't have to have the same identity in different communities. It's optional. Facebook's business model gives them a strong incentive to remove that optionality.

Re: The Great Bifurcation

#15
My two cents. Great proclamations of vaporware often come before a tech reset - be they VR, AI over reach, future money, or some other boondoggle that everyone is meant to love but actually sucks and people hate.

Facebook is pivoting to a non existant technology, and no one even knows whether anyone would want it if it existed. Everyone is dumping dollars on self driving cars and other AI tech that Keeps missing deadlines.

As long as there is free money, tech companies will burn it trying to invent the future. But at some point, if the illusion is pierced, everyone will just see a money pyre.

Re: The Great Bifurcation

#16
post #2

I agree with the thrust of this article, especially this line: "For a long time I felt somewhat unique in this regard, but COVID has made my longstanding reality the norm for many more people. Their physical world is defined by their family and hometown, which no longer needs to be near their work, which is entirely online; everything from friends to entertainment has followed the same path." The unbundling of physic…

> Before COVID, I would never dream of calling my daughter in the next room, but now I do it all the time - not (only) because I am lazy, but because the call or text is less intrusive than knocking on the door and therefore has better UX.

Back in the mid-to-late 20th century, it used to be a luxury to have a whole-home intercom system. Eventually, the functionality was subsumed by cordless telephone systems.

Texting someone in the next room over just feels like the next step in the evolution of intercom.

Re: The Great Bifurcation

#17

As the online world socially envelopes our subjective view of reality, is anyone else who grew up predominantly online simply dropping out? I've been spending more time on my meatspace hobbies, watching TV and movies, and generally avoiding interactions with the internet outside of work. I feel better for it and like I had been wasting so much time before on internet arguments and getting dopamine-hits from outrage b…

Yes, but I'm not entirely sure it is related. The reason I think I've taken up more real-world hobbies and moved farther away from online stuff is that it seems like everything online these days is trying to sell me something. If not a product, then a scam, or FOMO about some new fad, or the latest conspiracy theory, or outrage about some thing or another. I don't think it used to be this way, it used to be a place I could go to hang out with people who had similar interests and talk about them. Theoretically that's what this place is and it still seems like people are trying to sell me shit all the time (mostly blockchain nonsense, web frameworks, and cloud services).

Has it gone this way because of the ever-increasing monetization of it? I'm inclined to think so, but it's also possible it's just the natural result of becoming more widely used. Tragedy of the commons and all that.

Re: The Great Bifurcation

#19
Agree with the idea that the physical and digital worlds are bifurcating.

The main way I see it is in discourse, and particularly the way in which people seem to believe "their way" is the only way, when actually they're just in a bubble.

Comments here allude to it. Many people have been diving into the virtual world since lockdowns became mainstream. But many others have gone the complete other way - many of the groups I'm in have been rejecting technology more and more because they now value human experience far more.

This is only one example, but as far as I can tell, these two groups are almost completely at loggerheads now, the other side just seems baffling to them.

Re: The Great Bifurcation

#20
I am utterly confused about the visions for the Metaverse. Would it be a parallel economy where people can find work, start businesses, buy and sell "3D" property, talk to audiences in an imaginary 3D world? Or probably some kind of a channel that substitutes in-person meetings and social life? In both ways it looks like a dangerous proposition where some arbitrary company defines your reality and the rules of life, the available forms of expression, the available actions, etc.
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