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Ask HN: How many jabs needed for Omicron?

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Ask HN: How many jabs needed for Omicron?

#1

Post by dustinmoris »

In the UK our scientists and politicians tell us a clear message:

> Two COVID-19 jabs don't work against Omicron, but 3 do, which is why we must get boostered.

That makes sense to me and I've already booked an appointment for my 3rd jab. However, I would like to understand this a bit deeper to know what to expect for the rest of my life.

Are we saying that people who only get their first or second jab now are essentially very very little to nothing protected against Omicron until they get their third one? If they do have protection after a recent 1st or 2nd then are we saying that the jab count doesn't really matter and it's about time? Does it mean the mRNA vaccines only seem to work for about 3-4 months after the jab and then fade very rapidly? So we will need a 4th, then 5th, etc.?

I read not long ago that Israel is already preparing for a 4th vaccine rollout which would kind of support that idea.

Which one is it and what does that mean for the future?

Re: Ask HN: How many jabs needed for Omicron?

#4

Post by iExploder »

I'm in no way an expert. however, its pretty much common knowledge that viruses mutate, given that it makes sense that vaccines need to be updated. i see two scenarios:

1. forever taking vaccines at periodic intervals, probably enforced by law, judge dredd style

2. this particular virus will become less severe once everyone had it + was vaccinated and overly aggressive mutations died out, vaccines will be recommended not enforced

Re: Ask HN: How many jabs needed for Omicron?

#7

Post by thomascgalvin »

We simply don't know. Omicron hasn't been around long enough to make declarative statements. That being said, I think there is still reason for hope:

1. Omicron seems more infectious, but less lethal. Science still needs to collect more data, but the evidence seems to be leaning in this direction. [1]

2. Two shots of an mRNA vaccine still seem to show some protection against hospitalization and death. [2]

3. Three shots of an mRNA vaccine seem to be nearly as effective against Omicron as two shots were against previous strains. [3]

So, from my reading, the best case scenario is that Omicron becomes the dominant strain, is less lethal in unvaccinated populations, and no more dangerous to vaccinated populations, assuming booster shots are administered. If this is all true, it's a very good development.

The caveat is that all of these links are news reports, not scientific papers. I'm not a doctor, and neither are the people who wrote these, so they might be blowing smoke.

Also, it's common for vaccines to require multiple boosters before immunity "takes hold." The polio vaccine is given at 2 months, 4 months, 6-18 months, and 4-6 years, but then you're pretty much good. COVID might be defeated by a three-shot course. It might require yearly vaccinations. We don't know yet.

[1]: https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/omicron-covid-variant-...

[2]: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/...

[3]: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-study-find...

Re: Ask HN: How many jabs needed for Omicron?

#8

Post by reureu »

We don't know.

That's part of what's made COVID so difficult to manage - it's a new virus being fought with relatively new vaccine technology. Most of us are used to doctors giving us advice that's pretty stable and based on decades of research. But, in this case, most doctors don't have that much more information than what's being reported in the media (but they have a clinical background that helps interpret the results generally better than the public). Further, your doctor is going through the same emotional hurdles you're going through (e.g., wanting to get back to normal asap).

Jab count probably does matter, but I'm not sure anybody definitely knows how this plays out with these vaccines specifically (and, nobody can predict how the vaccines will respond to yet-unknown variants). In general, multiple exposures can impact antibody durability, the amount and types of antibodies you produce and even cause changes to the antigens your body will respond to. These aren't unique mRNA issues -- immunity issues exist with all types of vaccines.

So, it's great you're getting your third shot. It's probably safe to assume there'll be more shots in the future; what/when those future shots are isn't known... any specifics you get from anybody right now is just their guess.

Re: Ask HN: How many jabs needed for Omicron?

#9

Post by gus_massa »

The other replies are good, but I want to add another possibility. Perhaps most people have some level of immunity due to vaccines or previos infections, we may change to s schedule similar to the flu. I.E., people in risk groups get an anual customized shot. Perhaps we can mix other coronavirus in the jab.
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