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Bird populations declining fast across North America

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Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#221

I've noticed an even more disturbing trend of learned helplessness and misanthropic Malthusianism in these threads over the years. Not a single comment, at time of writing, has had a positive tone, and there are very few actionable suggestions. No consideration is given to the many positives in modern life, nor to realistic, productive tradeoffs. Everyone wants to wail in dismay at the perceived impending doom and do…

>there are very few actionable suggestions.

The actionable suggestions of a carbon tax and land-value tax have been proposed to deal with our largest environmental problems since decades ago and the progress has been agonizingly small. It's not surprising people are frustrated [1].

You can't preserve the atmosphere, oceans [2] and wilderness -- which by their nature are not owned -- within the legal-economic framework of ownership and exchange. Even if something happens to be both profitable and climate-friendly (like electric cars), the benefit to emissions is accidental, and this kind of coincidence does not provide a path to a general solution to the problem, because we cannot simply hope that happy accidents will occur whenever we want them to. It's a textbook tragedy of the commons, but there's no practical way to "de-commonize" and sell shares of ownership in the atmosphere, and anyway exercising control over those shares would just turn into a second government, because practically nobody does anything that doesn't involve the atmosphere.

There are all sorts of interesting innovations that might replace contemporary technologies in a more sustainable future, but since the market price of those technologies does not reflect the environmental benefits they offer, there is no guarantee they will be successful in the present economic system.

I think one misleading historical phenomenon was that around the '70s a bunch of left-wing activists started to raise alarms about running out of various resources: hazards which would fail to materialize. But capitalism is pretty good at managing resources when the availability of those resources follows a smooth price-supply curve, which is true of almost all natural resources which are not byproducts of other resources. However, the same was not true with ozone, it wasn't true with sulfur dioxide, and it won't be true with carbon dioxide either. Even Hayek admitted air pollution was a problem.

[1] These are the wonkish eco-capitalist approaches, which earn the ire of populists because they can sometimes put pressure on people who are sympathetic, or seem to be unfair when contrasting a few anecdotal experiences. But if you are going to talk about "hacker spirit" and "realistic, productive tradeoffs", these are precisely the kind of ideas you asked for, and you are precisely the kind of person who should be advocating for them. Obviously the crunchy crowd wants green jobs or whatever.

[2] The absence of a corresponding tax (cf. carbon, land-value) suggests a new Pigouvian tax: some kind of liquid efflux tax. But this is extraordinarily hard to quantify.

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not what the original paper says. This is why you want to read the actual scientific paper and not the article about it. The researchers, in the article's text, state: > "Steep declines in North American birds parallel patterns of avian declines emerging globally (14, 15, 22, 24). In particular, depletion of native grassland bird populations in North America, driven by habitat loss and more toxic pesticide use…

This illustrates why it's a terrible shame that the overpopulation topic has effectively been silenced and demonized in science conservationism and environmentalism. I frequently get people becoming wildly irrational and upset at me when I suggest that the current population is not supported by the earth sustainably, let alone a much larger one. They'll angrily insist that the earth's "carrying capacity" is 20, 50, 1…

> I frequently get people becoming wildly irrational and upset at me when I suggest that the current population is not supported by the earth sustainably

Irrationality is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Arguing about how many people the earth can sustain is pointless without defining what kind of life you expect people to be living. How many billions can capitalism + western rates of consumption sustain and for how long vs a simpler way of life. Not really, 10 billion "simpler way of life" people have huge catastrophic footprints as well. Farming being a major one. But the point was not to come to a precise figure…

They probably get upset as they assume you are implying some moral judgment against having kids. Most people want kids, just like those before us for untold hundreds of thousands of years.

There’s a difference between one kid, two kids, three kids, and that guy who had 150 kids or somesuch.

There isn’t an infinite carrying capacity to any planet, nor is it reasonable to have excess of a singular species for it is at the expense of others.

Some may have hurt feelings if you explain that more than 2 kids increases the population, but then “go forth and multiply” is probably not currently sound guidance, given what we now know, vs what we knew, say, 5 thousand years ago. It was arguably bad judgment to completely finish the great grazing herds and the Mastodons but try telling that to a hungry lot of humans.

The more we come to grips with the human as another animal species, one of many on earth, the easier it is to see how our own hubris is the issue everytime.

To the person above who thought 7 billion humans above wasn’t pushing any planetary limits: while no individual human wants to feel like excess, and certainly homicide is never what is being suggested, the fact remains that a wise human race that wishes to have a healthy planet and lots of resources per capita will steer their population over generations to be healthy.

I’m rather convinced that the same way a rabbit population without predators will suffer disease if it blooms too much, that this is what we are starting to encounter as we brush with the limits of our host in terms of our reckless dominance and destruction on the only known home to life so far…

No one wants to hear about limits or rules but hey, reality called…

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#224

I think this and many of the similar problems plaguing the earth will only be solved with a drastic reduction of people on the planet. Get the population down to 1 or 2 billion of us and a lot of these issues go away. Deforesting, not an issue if the demand for lumber is cut down by 80%. Same for coal, oil, paving, lithium... It all gets solved with just less people. 8 billion people is just too much, even if we all…

How many birds make it through the winter because humans help to feed them.

Surely if humans are the cause, they can be the solution too. Planting more forests is possible. Breeding Elephants, Giraffes, Hippos, and other large mammals we displaced is possible and is bing done now. Making land more hospitable to wild animals is also possible. Perhaps we need more people to be born not less to fill these roles.

Even large ultra modern cities like Dubai, are not all bad. They terraformed the desert. All kinds of plants, birds and animals live in Dubai that never could before. New York is home to billions of rats.

I'm not even sure that human activity has in anyway reduced the biomass of the earth. Cities provide ideal habitat to all kinds of birds, plants and animals. And Carbon emissions are good for plants, CO2 is needed for photosynthesis.

Forests have been converted to farms, and we grow way too much corn, that is used for fuel. A terribly inefficient and wasteful process. So I'm a big proponent of Nuclear Energy technology, which would greatly reduce our need for fossil fuels.

I also think Farms should be surrounded by treed buffers, and we should build green forested corridors that span the continent.

All of that might require more people not less to accomplish. That rare genius that will bring us break through energy technology might be someone in the next billion people not yet born.

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#225
post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You say "a free market does [calculation] fine," but it has obvious deficiencies that I have already remarked upon. As I have said before, the optimization problem can be solved on modern computers without the problems of the market. The inputs and outputs of individual processes are known in a market system, so logically this information can be centrally recorded for use by the planning process. If a production cent…

> You say "a free market does [calculation] fine," but it has obvious deficiencies that I have already remarked upon. And as I have already remarked, central planning does not fix those deficiencies, it makes them worse. > the optimization problem can be solved on modern computers without the problems of the market. I strongly disagree, for the reasons I've already stated, but it doesn't seem like we're going to reso…

> central planning does not fix those deficiencies, it makes them worse

How would the system I'm describing make inequality and the resulting conflict worse?

> you have to count the communication between the nodes as part of the computation.

But surely the nodes themselves must be the ones to perform the physical computation in the end? If the computing power of distributed systems scales exponentially with the number of nodes, why doesn't the computing power of a supercomputer scale exponentially with its number of cores?

> Every time socialism fails, socialist ideologues say it's because it wasn't true socialism.

Don't be ridiculous. There are plenty of countries with much better safety nets than the U.S. The U.S. government is just especially dysfunctional.

> I am not saying that governments never do beneficial things. I am saying that governments, on net, will do worse than a free market would do.

I guess we just disagree about this.

> in many situations there may simply be no way of achieving an optimal result

If you take "optimal result" to mean "best possible result," then there is, by definition, always a way of achieving an optimal result.

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not what the original paper says. This is why you want to read the actual scientific paper and not the article about it. The researchers, in the article's text, state: > "Steep declines in North American birds parallel patterns of avian declines emerging globally (14, 15, 22, 24). In particular, depletion of native grassland bird populations in North America, driven by habitat loss and more toxic pesticide use…

This illustrates why it's a terrible shame that the overpopulation topic has effectively been silenced and demonized in science conservationism and environmentalism. I frequently get people becoming wildly irrational and upset at me when I suggest that the current population is not supported by the earth sustainably, let alone a much larger one. They'll angrily insist that the earth's "carrying capacity" is 20, 50, 1…

"the appointed time came to bring to ruin those ruining the earth" Rev 11:18

I find it interesting that ruining of the earth by humans was predicted approx 2,000 years ago.

Sadly we have lived up to the hype.

And, we show no signs of making the wholesale changes needed to turn this ship around.

But, if you're interested in an often pooh-poohed alternative, you may find some comfort reading this: https://www.jw.org/en/bible-teachings/peace-happiness/save-e...

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems like this is just narrative based judgment. Everyone is all about how reintroduced wolves are so great for XYZ because predators do so many good things for environments and prey dynamics but cats in the environment are bad for ABC and they kill all the birds, etc. Most of the places which aren’t islands had predators in roughly the housecat niche before human civilization and many of those are lost. I think…

There's a lot going on here to try and avoid the statement that introducing predators to a given area's biome changes the balance of things. This is especially true when you prop up that predator's existence by feeding it (and not letting its population remain harmonious with available food supply/prey).

He most likely is a cat owner. They get very defensive when this issue comes up. Probably too much toxoplasmosis.

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#229
post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure what you mean by "information channels". Wouldn't a factory mainly just need to communicate its inputs and outputs the computer or computer cluster doing the calculation? Similarly for distribution centers. In particular, would much more information need to be transmitted in a planned economy than in a market economy? Remember that, while there are millions of products in the economy, any given center of…

> I'm not sure what you mean by "information channels". I mean information channels to and from the central computer. > Wouldn't a factory mainly just need to communicate its inputs and outputs the computer or computer cluster doing the calculation? If that's all it's doing, a free market does that fine. There is no need for any additional computation. Similarly for any other economic actor. If the central computatio…

> I mean information channels to and from the central computer.

This makes no sense to grow exponentially then. Information channels grow exponentially in a peer-to-peer network but only linearly in a centralised one. You can trivially see this in computer networks. One server with eight clients will have 8 connections. Eight peers will have 64 connections. Adding one more node will make the centralised solution add one more connection. Adding one more node to the peer-to-peer solution adds 17.

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not what the original paper says. This is why you want to read the actual scientific paper and not the article about it. The researchers, in the article's text, state: > "Steep declines in North American birds parallel patterns of avian declines emerging globally (14, 15, 22, 24). In particular, depletion of native grassland bird populations in North America, driven by habitat loss and more toxic pesticide use…

This illustrates why it's a terrible shame that the overpopulation topic has effectively been silenced and demonized in science conservationism and environmentalism. I frequently get people becoming wildly irrational and upset at me when I suggest that the current population is not supported by the earth sustainably, let alone a much larger one. They'll angrily insist that the earth's "carrying capacity" is 20, 50, 1…

Antinatalism is a thing, yes.

You're not alone and it doesn't matter if something is popular.

Apart from the adoption rate (no pun intended)

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