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Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

economist.com

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Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#361

Post by Swizec »

defaultprimate wrote: post #324
fourtrees wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is one of my big take-aways from the article. My great-(great?-)-grandparents from Eastern Europe armed with nothing but excellent numeracy, some English, and the clothes on their backs. They could reliably expect to enter move out of post-immigration poverty based on skills cultivated for the purpose of success in the US. My great-x-grandfather ended up a bank manager. And they passed money and knowledge along…

>But that sort of outcome seems almost impossible in America today Then you don't know enough about how well, for example, African and central Asian refugees or immigrants do in a single generation. Same for Hispanic immigrants within a generation or two.

> Then you don't know enough about how well, for example, African and central Asian refugees or immigrants do in a single generation.

In a generation? I moved here from Europe and within ~6 years accumulated as much wealth as my parents did in a lifetime.

The American dream is still alive and kicking for many if not most immigrants.

But my american friends have a fun joke they like to say: "Wow look at that immigrant work ethic! Wish I could work that hard" ... you could

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#362

Post by ianbutler »

DarylZero wrote: post #351
ianbutler wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are multiple people I’ve known who do the bare minimum to continue their existence and from the ones I’ve known I’m sure they’d contribute nothing if they were able to. I don’t consider it a particularly valid way to live. There are a lot more who do try to make their lives better though.

>who do the bare minimum to continue their existence So not nothing. > I’m sure they’d contribute nothing if they were able So they're not even _able_ to do nothing.

Effectively nothing. You’re splitting hairs.

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#363

Post by Jensson »

DarylZero wrote: post #354
Jensson wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But people who think that their own modern lifestyle is comparable to a medieval king are lying to themselves. Medieval kings still ate poor food, you can see it on their teeth, they often had gravel etc in the bread wearing down the teeths etc. The houses, food and clothing, sanitation etc the kings had back then would be illegal to even offer to poor people toady.

According to historian André Castelo, on one particular occasion, [Napoleon's] cuisiniers roasted no fewer than 23 chickens in close succession (Napoleon couldn’t possibly dine on reheated food) until the emperor finally deigned to put his quill down and spare a few minutes for his meal.

Having lots of raw resources doesn't mean you had high quality end products. Also Napoleon wasn't a medieval king, the medieval ages ended 500 years ago, things were much better 200 years ago when Napoleon lived.

When I lived on the minimum my government allows I could still buy higher quality raw ingredients than kings had access to 500 years ago and cook my own meals that are higher quality than was possible back then. It wont be as fancy, no, but it is better in every other regard, and I got access to the different wares year round while they had to account for seasons, spices basically non existent etc.

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#364

Post by WalterBright »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #347
WalterBright wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All those immigrants streaming over the border with nothing manage to do it. Nobody said it was easy, but it is possible.

You've got data on how many southern-border-crossing immigrants make it into the US middle class? I couldn't find any. Most immigrants in the US do not "stream over the border", more are arriving from Asian countries than Latin American countries. Those that arrive by air from another country typically have more than "nothing" on arrival.

So, for example, all those news stories about DACA immigrants are fake news?

"With the granting of work authorization and the imminent threat of deportation removed, DACA recipients have experienced pronounced upward mobility in their socioeconomic status."

https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/deferred...

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#365

Post by WalterBright »

danaris wrote: post #334
WalterBright wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it inane? Handsomeness is something you're born with, and most people assert that wealth is, too.

My handsomeness cannot, in any meaningful way, be taken away to help you be more handsome, no matter how handsome I am or how ugly you are. Your wealth can absolutely be taken away to help me afford food, shelter, and healthcare. Furthermore, my handsomeness does not in any way directly gain me the aforementioned things needed to survive and thrive. Your wealth absolutely does.

Handsome people statistically make significantly more money than others. Statistically, people in jail are much less handsome than the general population. Salaries are statistically higher for taller people as well, by the inch.

Forcing Hollywood to hire fewer attractive actors and more unattractive actors will meaningfully transfer lucrative roles to less attractive people.

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#366

Post by jwommack »

Things of possible note:

* This is a survey published in 2018 with (survey) data gathered in two months of 2016

* mobility data comes from a different source for each country and they vary wildly in the period covered. Notable Italy and US data is post 2008 and the others pre 2008. Looks like there’s as much as a 12 year difference in child earning data across countries.

* sample characteristics (the income question mentioned in other posts, not clear these are used for quintiles):

* US 20k, 20-40k, 40-70k, 70k+

* UK £1.5k/mo, £1.5-2.5k/mo, £2.5-3k/mo, £3k+/mo

* FR (UK ranges but €)

* IT * SE (SEK) * population samples per bracket differ most between US and EU, EU comparisons are pretty similar. Nearly 2x income bracket 1 pop and sample % in EU(.27-.33) vs US (.16/.18)

* From what I’ve found 2004 (UK data) £ conversion rate to USD was ~1.9. (2012)€ was ~1.34. USD and Italy are from 2011-2012, a 2012 $ is 0.82¢ in 2004 $s. So 70k=57.6k and £3000/mo=04$68.4k=12$83.1k, €3000/mo=12$46.8k

* age dist differs non-UK EU has fewer under 30.(~.2 vs .27)

So the lowest UK rate is ~2x the lowest US rate, the US rate is a smaller portion of the pop/sample, and the US upper rate is nearly 1.5-2x of the sample as the Non-US (.39 vs .17-26). The EU top rate is ~0.56 the US top rate when converted to $ using 2012 numbers.

There’s also another important dynamic here. 2011-2012 was the European debt crisis. Italy, in particular, saw a big unemployment spike over the course of the selected years.

[the study](https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.20162015)

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#367

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

WalterBright wrote: post #364
PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've got data on how many southern-border-crossing immigrants make it into the US middle class? I couldn't find any. Most immigrants in the US do not "stream over the border", more are arriving from Asian countries than Latin American countries. Those that arrive by air from another country typically have more than "nothing" on arrival.

So, for example, all those news stories about DACA immigrants are fake news? "With the granting of work authorization and the imminent threat of deportation removed, DACA recipients have experienced pronounced upward mobility in their socioeconomic status." https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/deferred...

I think most people recognize that a life growing up in the USA followed by the legal right to work and live here is a fairly huge step up in socioeconomic status from where most DACA-covered folk would have been had they not come to the USA.

But TFA was about socioeonomic mobility within the USA, not comparisons with Mexico, Peru or Bolivia. The success of a specific subgroup [0] of undocumented immigrants at moving upwards doesn't refute the general mobility findings cited in TFA, nor does it prove or disprove that their success is about smart work vs hard work vs adversity support. And I didn't mean to imply that neither hard nor smart work play a role in any upward social mobility, but rather that many people forget the role played by adversity support (and it's not a small role).

[0] According the article you cite, DACA covers 832,881 people, which is about 11% of the total undocumented immigrant population in the US at present (and if tales about an uncontrolled wave were correct, even less).

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#368

Post by jfrunyon »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #329
jfrunyon wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's laughably twisted. Just because someone makes a ton of money in a year (i.e. from inheritance, life insurance, or something else) means absolutely nothing about their wealth.

Inheritance NOR life insurance payouts are considered income by the IRS: https://www.irs.gov/faqs/interest-dividends-other-types-of-i... .

Uhh, inheritance definitely counts as income, but I'm not sure what income taxes have to do with what we were discussing. The supposed numbers you pointed to don't come from the IRS.

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#369

Post by shukantpal »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #259
shukantpal wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ahem, your statement assumes people even try - most do not. Especially given the "follow your passion" advice Americans are following nowadays.

The GP was using a quote from the GGP: > According to the 2020 census data linked below the percentage increases to around 24% for individuals who worked full time all year. It said and implied nothing about people trying or not. GP attempted to cast this as "1/4 of people succeed, so it's easily achieveable"

It said and implied nothing about failing either.

Also, if I look at the people around myself and see that 1 / 4 are able to do something, it would probably be easy. So it’s the GPs own self awareness combined with the stat.

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#370

Post by defaultprimate »

Swizec wrote: post #361
defaultprimate wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>But that sort of outcome seems almost impossible in America today Then you don't know enough about how well, for example, African and central Asian refugees or immigrants do in a single generation. Same for Hispanic immigrants within a generation or two.

> Then you don't know enough about how well, for example, African and central Asian refugees or immigrants do in a single generation. In a generation? I moved here from Europe and within ~6 years accumulated as much wealth as my parents did in a lifetime. The American dream is still alive and kicking for many if not most immigrants. But my american friends have a fun joke they like to say: "Wow look at that immigrant…

I'm so happy to hear of your success! Unfortunately not enough people will give you the credit you deserve because you didn't come from a "bad" place.
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