Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 391 posts

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#61

Post by [deleted] »

rpmisms wrote: post #35
postpawl wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only 8% of people in the United States make more than $100k: https://graphics.wsj.com/what-percent/ Don't know if I'd call it easy if it's something only 8 out of 100 people do. It also depends on the area. $100k in SF is a lot different than $100k in the mid-west.

I definitely have survivorship bias, but I also know many people who've done similar things in different fields. I think knowing other people who make plenty of money helps, but often only by way of example. Knowing it's possible means you'll work harder.

[deleted]

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#62

Post by TulliusCicero »

rpmisms wrote: post #23

Social mobility is very different than economic mobility. It's not hugely difficult to earn six figures in the US if you're committed, work hard, and pick a good field. Heck, I did it without any college. Social mobility is a different story. I was raised in a rural area, which is essentially a social class of its own. Since becoming an adult, I've found myself gravitating towards working-class people. I like the blu…

> Social mobility is very different than economic mobility. It's not hugely difficult to earn six figures in the US if you're committed, work hard, and pick a good field. Heck, I did it without any college.

And yet, many people assert that it is indeed hard for them.

The easiest way to compare this between countries is to look at actual economic/social mobility, in the form of poor people becoming affluent, affluent people becoming poor, etc. Rather than theorycrafting or going off anecdotes, see what’s actually happening.

And the data says that the US doesn’t do so well here, IIRC.

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#63

Post by AussieWog93 »

rfrey wrote: post #32
rpmisms wrote: post #23

Social mobility is very different than economic mobility. It's not hugely difficult to earn six figures in the US if you're committed, work hard, and pick a good field. Heck, I did it without any college. Social mobility is a different story. I was raised in a rural area, which is essentially a social class of its own. Since becoming an adult, I've found myself gravitating towards working-class people. I like the blu…

This is not your main point, but in the spirit of Americans overestimating social mobility, you may be overestimating "family values" among the working class. According to the 2015 US census, the share of people who have been divorced at least once is 46% (poor), 41% (working class) and 30% (middle and upper class). Similarly, people who report they are "very happy" in marriage are 54% (poor), 56% (working class) and…

I think his definition of working class is perhaps different to the definition in your study.

It's one of those terms that are loosely defined (at least in certain societies) and mean very different things to different people.

Is an electrician earning US$80k/year middle class because he's well compensated for his work, or working class because he's doing manual labour?

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#64

Post by mitigating »

rpmisms wrote: post #42
rfrey wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not your main point, but in the spirit of Americans overestimating social mobility, you may be overestimating "family values" among the working class. According to the 2015 US census, the share of people who have been divorced at least once is 46% (poor), 41% (working class) and 30% (middle and upper class). Similarly, people who report they are "very happy" in marriage are 54% (poor), 56% (working class) and…

I'm telling an anecdotal story, and in my area the working class is very Catholic, black, or both. YMMV, not valid in California.

California has one of the lowest divorce rates in the entire country https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/states-with...

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#65

Post by stickyricky »

rfrey wrote: post #32
rpmisms wrote: post #23

Social mobility is very different than economic mobility. It's not hugely difficult to earn six figures in the US if you're committed, work hard, and pick a good field. Heck, I did it without any college. Social mobility is a different story. I was raised in a rural area, which is essentially a social class of its own. Since becoming an adult, I've found myself gravitating towards working-class people. I like the blu…

This is not your main point, but in the spirit of Americans overestimating social mobility, you may be overestimating "family values" among the working class. According to the 2015 US census, the share of people who have been divorced at least once is 46% (poor), 41% (working class) and 30% (middle and upper class). Similarly, people who report they are "very happy" in marriage are 54% (poor), 56% (working class) and…

Poor, middle, and upper class are economic distinctions in America. Not social ones. I think OP misstated his alignment to the "working class". He refers to Yuppies in the subsequent sentence which gives a hint that this is a rural/urban divide argument.

But that's just my reading of it.

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#66

Post by systemvoltage »

lmm wrote: post #26
echelon wrote: post #8

America is being attacked by pervasive narratives like this. News rags the whole world over are shitting on us, meanwhile authoritarian regimes are rising to power. It's a narrative dismantling, and we're being played like fools. America is still the best country in the world to start a business and take risks. America still has more freedoms (speech especially) than most of the world. (Side note: The left wants to p…

> America is still the best country in the world to start a business and take risks. Not convinced. Serious illness can happen to anyone at any time, especially under the stress of running a business, and America has one of the weakest safety nets for a developed country. > America still has more freedoms (speech especially) than most of the world. The First Amendment is a great thing, but it can't maintain a culture…

> Not convinced. Serious illness can happen to anyone at any time, especially under the stress of running a business, and America has one of the weakest safety nets for a developed country.

US is at the top of the rung amongst OECD health index. The middle class is not too badly positioned. For the poor, there is Medicare: https://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/topics/health/

> The First Amendment is a great thing, but it can't maintain a culture of free speech on its own. The US's at-will firing (particularly combined with employer-dependent healthcare) means many Americans find it harder to express their views openly than people in other countries.

US is on par with UK and most OECD nations with regards to civil rights and liberties:

> The jurisdictions that took the top 10 places, in order, were New Zealand, Switzerland, Hong Kong, Denmark, Australia, Canada, Ireland, Estonia, and Germany and Sweden (tied in 9th place). Selected countries rank as follows: Japan (11), the United Kingdom and the United States (tied in 17th place), Taiwan (19), South Korea (26), Chile (30), France (33), South Africa (68), Argentina (70), Mexico (86), Brazil (88), Kenya (93), India (111), Russia (115), Turkey (119), China (129), Saudi Arabia (151), Egypt (157), Iran (158), Venezuela (160), and Syria (162).

https://www.cato.org/human-freedom-index/2020

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#67

Post by jeffbee »

refurb wrote: post #58

Again, it's highly problematic defining mobility as "moving from bottom quintile to top quintile". - Moving from bottom quintile to 2nd highest is significant mobility and completely ignored in this analysis. - The analysis ignores the fact that the highest quintile in the US is higher in absolute terms than other countries. So moving from bottom to 4th may give more income than bottom to 5th in other countries. - Th…

" - [blah blah ignorance] ignored in this analysis"

Q1-Q4 mobility is not ignored, it's right there in Table 2 of the paper. For your information the U.S. is also worst among the five studied nations for Q1-Q4 mobility. Furthermore the U.S. is also worst for Q1-Q3.

HTH.

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#68

Post by stale2002 »

pm90 wrote: post #55
rpmisms wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I definitely have survivorship bias, but I also know many people who've done similar things in different fields. I think knowing other people who make plenty of money helps, but often only by way of example. Knowing it's possible means you'll work harder.

“What I’ve seen contradicts measured statistics across the country” is not a convincing argument. Most users of HN probably live in a bubble; important to look at hard data from reliable sources rather than personal experiences.

> “What I’ve seen contradicts measured statistics across the country” is not a convincing argument.

You are not understanding the other possibilities here.

The other possibility is that yes, it is true that it is not that hard to make it to this level of success, but the stats are still true, and it is simply that people don't do this, for other reasons.

There are a multitude of reasons, as for why someone might not join lucrative fields, even if it isn't that hard to do so.

For example, maybe they simply aren't aware of it, or they incorrectly think it would be difficult. Or maybe there a social reasons why people don't do it.

Or maybe, in order to achieve that level of success they would have to move, and I know that lots of people don't want to do move.

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#69

Post by 1cvmask »

systemvoltage wrote: post #22
echelon wrote: post #8

America is being attacked by pervasive narratives like this. News rags the whole world over are shitting on us, meanwhile authoritarian regimes are rising to power. It's a narrative dismantling, and we're being played like fools. America is still the best country in the world to start a business and take risks. America still has more freedoms (speech especially) than most of the world. (Side note: The left wants to p…

I'd just like to point out one thing I've noticed quite a bit and would love Europeans to chime in - that is - European exceptionalism. We, Americans, were known for American exceptionalism but that has eroded to a point where I haven't heard a single good thing about America in the last decade or so. We're shameful and contemptful of our nation. Slightest positive thing is considered nationalistic and right-wing, so…

That cause we not only own .com we even own ICANN at it’s true root. We have nuclear powered carrier groups with real projection of power. Europe has nothing in real terms to compare. A simple example is two formerly grand colonial European powers both invaded and attacked Libya. They literally ran out of mumitions and ordnance. Obama had to come and save the day to destroy Libya. Another example is we left Afghanistan and Britain protested. They still could not stay there alone. And NATO only exists to serve us and help us sell more arms to client states. Europe is not an empire or close to it by any means. The 20th century was Pax Americana. The 21st started as us being sole game in town.now after multiple lost treasure after multiple wars we are slightly injured. But we are still much more powerful.

As for freedom of speech we don’t really have it when it is against the national security state and imperial ambitions. We jailed Eugene Debs the politician for advocating against entering the first world war. We imprisoned the director of Spirit of ‘76 for making a movie on Yankee Doodle which was supposedly anti-British. We now have multiple tech censorship platforms instructed by politicians and the media to censor and deplatform even more.

We have the dollar as the global reserve currency and we can export our inflation. If a country threatens the dollar as a reserve currency by trying to sell their petrol in different currencies we bomb them to hell.

We have a great medical care system for the rich. The lower and middle class need not apply.

We have more flags on display than anywhere I have traveled to in Europe (maybe I missed their national holidays). Just come to Fleet Week in San Francisco to see the flags and uniforms on full display.

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#70

Post by dataflow »

jeffbee wrote: post #67
refurb wrote: post #58

Again, it's highly problematic defining mobility as "moving from bottom quintile to top quintile". - Moving from bottom quintile to 2nd highest is significant mobility and completely ignored in this analysis. - The analysis ignores the fact that the highest quintile in the US is higher in absolute terms than other countries. So moving from bottom to 4th may give more income than bottom to 5th in other countries. - Th…

" - [blah blah ignorance] ignored in this analysis" Q1-Q4 mobility is not ignored, it's right there in Table 2 of the paper. For your information the U.S. is also worst among the five studied nations for Q1-Q4 mobility. Furthermore the U.S. is also worst for Q1-Q3. HTH.

The paper isn't linked in the article (I think the parent was referring to the article). I think you're referring to the paper here: https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/stantcheva/files/alesina_s...

Looking at it myself now, it doesn't seem like the US is all that different from the other countries examined, e.g. US 12.7% Q1->Q4 vs. 12.9% for UK vs. 12.8% for France. For Q1->Q3 it's somewhat higher (18.7% vs. 19.9% for UK for example) but for Q1->Q2 the US is also higher than the others (e.g., 27.7% US vs. 25.1% UK).

Post reply on HN