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Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

economist.com

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Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#31

Post by booleandilemma »

rpmisms wrote: post #23

Social mobility is very different than economic mobility. It's not hugely difficult to earn six figures in the US if you're committed, work hard, and pick a good field. Heck, I did it without any college. Social mobility is a different story. I was raised in a rural area, which is essentially a social class of its own. Since becoming an adult, I've found myself gravitating towards working-class people. I like the blu…

Is six figures really that much any more? I’m talking about 1xx,xxx, which is what most people mean when they say six figures. If you’re living in a place like New York, California, or even say, Jersey, what does a low 6 figures really get you?

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#32

Post by rfrey »

rpmisms wrote: post #23

Social mobility is very different than economic mobility. It's not hugely difficult to earn six figures in the US if you're committed, work hard, and pick a good field. Heck, I did it without any college. Social mobility is a different story. I was raised in a rural area, which is essentially a social class of its own. Since becoming an adult, I've found myself gravitating towards working-class people. I like the blu…

This is not your main point, but in the spirit of Americans overestimating social mobility, you may be overestimating "family values" among the working class. According to the 2015 US census, the share of people who have been divorced at least once is 46% (poor), 41% (working class) and 30% (middle and upper class). Similarly, people who report they are "very happy" in marriage are 54% (poor), 56% (working class) and 65% (middle and upper class). (https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-marriage-divide-how-and-why-w...).

I wasn't able to turn up any stats on lawn care though.

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#33

Post by jeffbee »

RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote: post #15

I think perhaps the US makes it hard for a single person to move from bottom to top quintile. But I bet that the US is the country that makes it the easiest for you to be in the bottom quintile and have grandchildren in the top quintile. Basically, I think the US is likely the best for generational family mobility. I have seen this story many times with immigrants. The immigrants come over and work often very menial…

Literally the entire point of the paper is that the U.S. has the worst intergenerational bottom-to-top quintile probability among the five nations, U.K., France, Italy, and Sweden being the others, but Americans believe that the probability is much higher than it really is, as you have just amply demonstrated.

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#34

Post by notacoward »

jackcosgrove wrote: post #14

The article measures mobility based on one's percentile movement across the income distribution. There are more rungs to climb in the US because there's a wider income range, whereas in Europe income differences are compressed. The same income increase in absolute terms gets you more social mobility in Europe than in the US. I'm initially skeptical of studies that imply large-scale misunderstanding among the public a…

> there's a wider income range

...and that's why such comparisons should be done using percentiles instead of absolute values. Which they did.

> The conclusion of the article is in part a reflection of the methodology.

The biggest methodological flaw points in quite a different direction than you seem to be suggesting. Change in percentile across the income distribution is less informative than change in percentile across the wealth distribution, and that should be the age adjusted wealth distribution as well. Comparing my retirement income to somebody who's still working is practically useless. Comparing it to what my age peers have in the bank compared to when we were all much younger tells something close to the true story.

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#35

Post by rpmisms »

postpawl wrote: post #30
rpmisms wrote: post #23

Social mobility is very different than economic mobility. It's not hugely difficult to earn six figures in the US if you're committed, work hard, and pick a good field. Heck, I did it without any college. Social mobility is a different story. I was raised in a rural area, which is essentially a social class of its own. Since becoming an adult, I've found myself gravitating towards working-class people. I like the blu…

Only 8% of people in the United States make more than $100k: https://graphics.wsj.com/what-percent/ Don't know if I'd call it easy if it's something only 8 out of 100 people do. It also depends on the area. $100k in SF is a lot different than $100k in the mid-west.

I definitely have survivorship bias, but I also know many people who've done similar things in different fields. I think knowing other people who make plenty of money helps, but often only by way of example. Knowing it's possible means you'll work harder.

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#36

Post by twoodfin »

jackcosgrove wrote: post #14

The article measures mobility based on one's percentile movement across the income distribution. There are more rungs to climb in the US because there's a wider income range, whereas in Europe income differences are compressed. The same income increase in absolute terms gets you more social mobility in Europe than in the US. I'm initially skeptical of studies that imply large-scale misunderstanding among the public a…

This comment is 100% correct but somehow got shuffled to the bottom and greyed.

It doesn’t make sense to measure income mobility in anything but absolute terms: Would you rather move one quintile in a wide income distribution or two within a much narrower one?

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#37

Post by ravitation »

atoav wrote: post #27
VWWHFSfQ wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think it would be easier to become "filthy rich" for a poor person when they start in a nation with free healthcare and education. Poor people in USA have both free healthcare and education. If they're willing to fill-out some forms. Edit: Yes, contrary to the popular belief, poor people in USA do, in fact, get free health care and education.

> If they're willing to fill-out some forms. How does that part work in practise? Are these forms something someone from a poor uneducated background can actually realistically fill out? The way I see it many Americans I had the chance to talk with either take a gamble on their health or they spend not unsignificant time and energy to find their ways through the system. The first choice can turn out just fine, or (in…

The larger problem is not simply getting access to medicaid, it's also that the US defines poverty essentially based on access to medicaid... Where a non-trivial portion of the population does not qualify for medicaid, but are also far from being financially secure.

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#39

Post by pm90 »

hn8788 wrote: post #16
ipeefreely wrote: post #3

Social mobility is really hard to measure, but all else equal, I think America is the best place in the world for a poor person to become filthy rich (top 0.1%) but not the best place in the world for a poor person to simply transition to middle/upper class.

It could definitely be better, but I think there are more opportunities than most people realize. Joining the military is a big one; you get paid to learn a marketable skill, usually have your college tuition paid for, and you get to move out of your hometown. I knew a few people who joined because it was a quick way to get out of their shitty hometown where the options were sell drugs, or be poor. Knowledge of what'…

Joining the Military shouldn’t be the primary path to a better life; that seems incredibly dystopian.

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#40

Post by chrisseaton »

postpawl wrote: post #30
rpmisms wrote: post #23

Social mobility is very different than economic mobility. It's not hugely difficult to earn six figures in the US if you're committed, work hard, and pick a good field. Heck, I did it without any college. Social mobility is a different story. I was raised in a rural area, which is essentially a social class of its own. Since becoming an adult, I've found myself gravitating towards working-class people. I like the blu…

Only 8% of people in the United States make more than $100k: https://graphics.wsj.com/what-percent/ Don't know if I'd call it easy if it's something only 8 out of 100 people do. It also depends on the area. $100k in SF is a lot different than $100k in the mid-west.

> Only 8% of people in the United States make more than $100k

How does the percentage change when you look at people with full-time jobs? With full-time professional jobs? Who are actively trying to optimise their income instead of for example prioritising family? I'd guess it becomes much larger very quickly.

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