Ask HN: How do I create a social movement to change the world?

I'm in Australia as well, and so I've seen this housing issue first hand. I have two ways of looking at this.

I am complete agreement with you btw, and I don't think your idea is that deeply radical. I've been saying this for years.

I'm not concerned. I don't own a house, I've never bought into the "everyone must own their home, it's the greatest investment possible" mentality. To all the people who say "but real estate has gone up 30% in the last year", that's fine. You can send your condolences to my crypto account (or stocks which are also up more than 30%).

If you look at the people who REALLY did change the world, was it really those who created a social movement? There were a few, Nelson Mandella, Gahndi, etc. But you can also look at those who provided an alternative, or a new way of looking at the world. Of course, our current hero in this realm is Elon Musk, he didn't lobby to put a cap on fossil fuels, he built a solution.

Millennials are purchasing houses at a lower rate than any time before in history, AND people are becoming more mobile (well, before the pandemic anyway). With population collapse, will housing continue to be a good investment over the next 50 years?

I personally believe the real estate as investment will decrease in popularity. Why? Because you can't really sell just part of your house, I can sell a bit of stocks if I want to go on a trip, or buy a new car or something. If all my money is in my house, I have to sell the whole thing. I can only sell it to somebody who wants to buy the whole thing, and that person either wants to live in it, or wants to rent it out. My house is of less value to somebody in Italy (as an example) than it is to someone in Australia. With most other investments, it doesn't matter where geographically the person is, it's the same value. Lastly, a house, has upkeep, taxes, maintenance, and the design goes out of style and needs to be updated.

So, I'd suggest that rather than try to lobby to change society or create a "social movement", you figure out a) what you can do for yourself to improve your investment position without real estate, b) how you can help improve the lives of others.

Some people have said to me that housing in Australia will always be valuable, because as the population shrinks, immigration will just let more people in, but I believe this is also a flawed argument as it ignores the improvements to quality of life that are happening in the places that would normally be the source of immigration, and the fact that these countries will also likely see decreased birth rates as they continue to develop.

I disagree with your prescriptions for a solution, and the pushback on them will be fairly intense from economists, politicians and many others. I could go into detail about the policies, but there are problems with them.

And anyway, there is a much better way of achieving your goals that will get support from almost everyone, which doesn't involve pushing an angry agenda uphill against entrenched interests. Start pushing for Georgism. There's a large amount of theory supporting this, here's a starting point for reading:

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/does-georgism-work-is-...

Now, the reason that we in Australia can push for Georgism is that we already have Georgist taxes (local council rates), it's just that they are too weak to have a major effect on the market.

At the same time, councils are underfunded. Since councils do a bunch of things that everyone connects to, likes and relates to (garbage collection, libraries, parks, local roads and footpaths, etc.), it's actually quite easy to create a slogan "let's fund councils properly" that everyone can get behind. If that just happens to end housing as a financial investment in Australia, oh well, that's just an odd unexpected consequence, isn't it?

In particular, you have a large number of councils that will thouroughly support your message, amplify whatever you have to say, and probably let you have access to facilities for free for events.

Your policy objectives are basically going to be: increase funding for councils by letting them increase rates by 20% per year, with a corresponding decrease in (say) stamp duty until state governments no longer need to subsidise local councils.

Even if Georgism is incorrect, we would start seeing rent and real estate prices start declining (because council rates will make holding property less valuable). Mission accomplished.

(The fun starts when councils are fully self-funded, and you keep pushing for 20% increases: then you can start funding state and federal government from Georgist taxes. If Georgism is correct, this should have a variety of very positive effects.)

The logic of the system means there is nothing surprising to what you see happening. The reasons for doing what is being done are the same as for doing what was done.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indigenous_land_rights_in_Aust...

Solving this problem means providing a workable solution to the people in power, which in this case is homeowners. Can you find a solution which lets them keep their financial gains but also shifts the status quo? If not, they will fight you and win.

One wonky approach might be to introduce some form of government seizure over time, like a scaling progressive rule based on the quantity of property owned that is actually a forced sale to the local housing authority. So over a period the extra housing equity would be owned by the authority and redistributed, while the existing homeowner gets cash but not the property. This particular concept feels flawed but something which produces wins all around is easier to get moving.

As for building the movement, a crisp rallying cry and lines of communication to local stakeholders is key. You probably need to search around for the location with the right mixture of local activism and receptive leadership, in the same way that many startups benefit from specific locations.