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Bitcoin Failed in El Salvador. The President Says the Answer Is More Bitcoin

foreignpolicy.com

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Re: Bitcoin Failed in El Salvador. The President Says the Answer Is More Bitcoin

#241
post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2% annual inflation over a 40 year career amounts to 40% less earnings. Inflation is theft. Bitcoin fixes this. Try living with deflation. To paraphrase Churchill: an inflationary regime is the worst monetary system, except for all the others that have been tried. > Bitcoin is honest sound money with a fixed inflation policy forever that cannot be manipulated by any central actors. Not being able to manipulate the…

From the article, the two charts referenced don’t say what I think you were hoping they say. The first chart claims to show how CPI fluctuated wildly on the gold standard, except if you read the * and footnote in the article you will see it discloses that the US actually went off the gold standard at the same time as the increase in inflation. The second chart aims to show how low and stable CPI has been under the cu…

> except if you read the * and footnote

…it says:

> These restrictions on gold exports continued until June 1919, at which point we returned to the full gold standard. I have started from this last date, because there is no question that we were operating under the gold standard at this point.

So the gyrations were occurring when the gold standard was full-on.

See also:

* https://www.vox.com/2014/7/16/5900297/case-against-gold-stan...

> However the chart is old and doesn’t include the recent CPI readings of 6.4% and 6.8% annualized inflation that were reported in the most recent 2 months by the BLS.

The chart is "old" because the article was written in 2012. It was written during a period when QE was going on and there was much tearing of garments about 'money printing':

> We believe the Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchase plan (so-called "quantitative easing") should be reconsidered and discontinued. We do not believe such a plan is necessary or advisable under current circumstances. The planned asset purchases risk currency debasement and inflation, and we do not think they will achieve the Fed's objective of promoting employment.

* https://economics21.org/html/open-letter-ben-bernanke-287.ht...

And for the next decade the CPI was doing not a whole lot. So much for Friedman's "always a monetary phenomenon"—which he was wrong about even in the 1980s when Volcker was doing his thing.

Further a spike in inflation was expected and predicted, and that a number of folks said it could last a year, like happened during the Korean War:

* https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/in...

In the fact last month's numbers were not surprising because of their value, but because they so closely matched predictions:

> The consumer price index increased 0.8% last month, the government said Friday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.7% advance.

* https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-u-s-consumer-pri...

* https://www.reuters.com/business/biden-says-inflation-data-d...

> you will see it discloses that the US actually went off the gold standard

Being "on" the gold standard will take as much political will as not printing money. Probably more, because of the economic suffering that deflation causes… as was seen Greece in the 2010s (Gold Dawn), and Japan and Germany in the late 1930s.

> I don’t buy your argument that allowing a handful of central bankers to manipulate the money supply and print money out of thin air, is a good thing.

Not being able to print money when it is needed in the economy can cause depressions:

* https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/financial-markets-an...

And the folks who like the gold standard tend to also like balanced budgets and austerity, which is another bad idea:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austerity:_The_History_of_a_Da...

It should be noted that historically 'printing money' has mostly not the cause of (hyper)inflation, but rather printing money was the effect of something else:

* https://clintballinger.com/2021/01/12/the-myth-of-hyperinfla...

> In this paper I will argue why the common misconception that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” cannot be used to explain most historical hyperinflations. I will argue that “money printing” is often the response to exogenous and unusual events and not the direct cause of the hyperinflation.

* https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1799102

Further, "printing money" isn't what people think it is:

> This paper provides a general understanding of the workings of the modern fiat monetary system in the United States within the context of the global economy. The work is primarily descriptive in nature and takes an operational perspective of the monetary system using the understandings of Monetary Realism.

* https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1905625

If anyone is still thinking about bank reserves and multipliers then they are severely out of date. Tobin described this as the "Old View" in 1963:

* https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d01/d0...

Re: Bitcoin Failed in El Salvador. The President Says the Answer Is More Bitcoin

#242
post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some kind of crypto IS necessary in the end. Not for the micropayment[1] itself but for funding/withdrawing. If this is done over traditional banking system it excludes half the world with access to the internet + adds fees that go to the bank. If its implemented trough internet mega corps instead of banks they get even more power than they already have + they will take a cut too + they will fight it to ever become a…

Crypto isn't a currency so you still need exit nodes to fiat at some point, and these are banks (or exchanges using banks on your behalf). New fintech services like Cashapp, Venmo, Paypal, Sofi, etc have done much more to improve banking access with technology than any crypto so far.

None of these services can do what crypto can and you should not want to use them anyway. They take a cut, screw you over whenever possible, have zero respect for you privacy and personal data, can exclude you from service without due process and basically put you on a no-fly list but without justification or any feasible way to fight it. Every other week these is some HN post about peoples accounts getting suspended, do you want to live in future where this happens to your "wallet"? I know people who can not open a paypal account since 10+ years. There is no way to appeal it.

Also within 10 years they will all be bought up by the largest 2-3 players creating another mega corp oligopoly that makes everything worse for everyone. Wait until they exchange their "no-fly lists" and a AI gets to ruin peoples life because of statistically anomalies or something.

If you dont want that you should root for crypto even if today crypto is mostly garbage and scams the tech can be used to do better.

Re: Bitcoin Failed in El Salvador. The President Says the Answer Is More Bitcoin

#243
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) Why do people buy "pro" apps to remove ads but would not do that for content on the web? Also the micro fraud argument is kinda funny since everyone knows the ad business is full or fraud and everyone somehow involved with ads pays a huge junk for this. I think micropayment is far move fraud resistant because all the bots pretending to be humans and clicking ads do not work anymore. 2) That true. but it doesn't ha…

Every model has been tried from standard subscriptions to bundled subscriptions (Mogul, Subscribd) to ads replacement (Google Contributor, Sterling) to pay-per-article (Blendle) and they've all found limited success. 1) Most people do not value written content and news the same as other forms of entertainment. 2) There's too much decision friction and it gets worse when you have to decide per article. 3) Ads subsidiz…

Check out coil.com

Also who said content has to be written? If the demand for written paid content is low there is no way to fix this. Demand for stuff changes over time and certain business go obsolete. This has nothing to do with the topic, those who dont adapt die out. No one claims that somehow crypto would magically make people earn money with stuff no one want to pay for.

>3) Ads subsidize far more than most people could afford to pay for directly.

That is mathematically impossible every ad is paid by thous who buy the product. Thous who just see ads but never buy factually dont pay and dont ad any value at all they just force thous who buy to pay more.

There are many people who dont use ad-blockers because they think its the morally right thing to do, to support the content creators through ads. They make this logic mistake all the time. There is nothing morally right about raising the product pirce for others so ad companies get more revenue and a tiny but also goes to the content creator. Its a best Robin Hood like moral gymnastics, it does not ad value to the system and you dont pay for the content you consumes.

Re: Bitcoin Failed in El Salvador. The President Says the Answer Is More Bitcoin

#244
post #240
post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean it already works like that in cryptocurrency today. Look at the rates paid on stablecoins. For example look at UST a US dollar stablecoin. It currently pays 19.4% APY on savings. There are risks but for 2% on Nexus Mutual you can be insured against a failure of the dollar peg or a failure in the smart contract. The net yield on a USD pegged stablecoin with insurance is 17.4% - handily beating inflation risk-fr…

Where do you think the zero-risk interest comes from?

Similar to other stablecoins, over-collateralized lending against the value of staked crypto assets.

See here for details on UST (Anchor protocol) https://www.anchorprotocol.com/docs/anchor-v1.1.pdf

Re: Bitcoin Failed in El Salvador. The President Says the Answer Is More Bitcoin

#245
post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the article, the two charts referenced don’t say what I think you were hoping they say. The first chart claims to show how CPI fluctuated wildly on the gold standard, except if you read the * and footnote in the article you will see it discloses that the US actually went off the gold standard at the same time as the increase in inflation. The second chart aims to show how low and stable CPI has been under the cu…

> except if you read the * and footnote …it says: > These restrictions on gold exports continued until June 1919, at which point we returned to the full gold standard. I have started from this last date, because there is no question that we were operating under the gold standard at this point. So the gyrations were occurring when the gold standard was full-on. See also: * https://www.vox.com/2014/7/16/5900297/case-ag…

I can see you subscribe to modern monetary theory and believe that central bankers and their ability to freely print money without limit are essential to a functioning modern economy.

Further, I see that you don’t share my concerns about increasing inflation. In your eyes, if economists can predict inflation we don’t actually need to prevent or stop inflation.

In my mind inflation is theft by central powers, stealing the most from those with the least leverage (aka the poor and middle class). A 2% annual rate of inflation over a 40 year career will steal 40% of the purchasing power of the wage-earner. We are currently experiencing 6.4% inflation based on official data.

Re: Bitcoin Failed in El Salvador. The President Says the Answer Is More Bitcoin

#246
post #244
post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where do you think the zero-risk interest comes from?

Similar to other stablecoins, over-collateralized lending against the value of staked crypto assets. See here for details on UST (Anchor protocol) https://www.anchorprotocol.com/docs/anchor-v1.1.pdf

OK. And what if the borrower defaults?

Per https://docs.anchorprotocol.com/protocol/money-market#borrow..., it seems like there'd be zero risk as long as the LTV is >= 1.0, but that sort of defeats the point of loans. ;)

Re: Bitcoin Failed in El Salvador. The President Says the Answer Is More Bitcoin

#247
post #246
post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Similar to other stablecoins, over-collateralized lending against the value of staked crypto assets. See here for details on UST (Anchor protocol) https://www.anchorprotocol.com/docs/anchor-v1.1.pdf

OK. And what if the borrower defaults? Per https://docs.anchorprotocol.com/protocol/money-market#borrow... , it seems like there'd be zero risk as long as the LTV is >= 1.0, but that sort of defeats the point of loans. ;)

There is no magic to make these loans riskless.

These are OVER-collateralized loans.

Like any other collateral backed loan, if the value of the collateral falls to a point where there may be a risk of the collateral value being less than the loan amount, then the borrower must either put up more collateral or their existing collateral is liquidated to pay off the loan, leaving no outstanding balance.

It’s not really much different from a mortgage or another asset-backed loan, except that the borrower must send the collateral to an account controlled by the lender and the lender can instantly liquidate the collateral if the LTV falls below a threshold.

If you think about it, crypto such as Bitcoin or Ethereum are really the most perfect form of capital for a lender to accept as collateral for a loan. Unlike a home mortgage or a car loan the lendor takes full custody of collateral valued greater than the loan. The crypto assets are volatile but they are marked to market in real-time 24/7. At any time if the value of the collateral falls below som safe threshold, the borrower is notified that their collateral is at risk of liquidation and given the opportunity to add collateral. If the LTV ratio isn’t corrected and the market reduces the value of the collateral further, then the lender can instantly liquidate the collateral and unwind the loan.

Re: Bitcoin Failed in El Salvador. The President Says the Answer Is More Bitcoin

#248
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m exhausted by the fiat money scam 2% annual inflation over a 40 year career amounts to 40% less earnings. Inflation is theft. Bitcoin fixes this. No one has ever explained a better solution to inflation than Bitcoin. Fiat money printing is a scam that lets politicians spend more money without directly raising taxes. Bitcoin is honest sound money with a fixed inflation policy forever that cannot be manipulated by a…

Inflation is not caused directly and only by printing. But imagine it was. We'd see inflation apply evenly everywhere. So wages would rise too. Inflation would not eat into your earnings in any compounding fashion.

The reason inflation isn’t applied equally everywhere is called the Cantillon Effect. Here are the details https://azizonomics.com/2012/08/07/the-cantillon-effect/

For a given level of money velocity, what other factors cause inflation - other than money printing? Clearly money printing is the most obvious cause of artificial manipulation of the money supply and in my understanding the primary cause of inflation. What am I missing?

Re: Bitcoin Failed in El Salvador. The President Says the Answer Is More Bitcoin

#249
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m exhausted by the fiat money scam 2% annual inflation over a 40 year career amounts to 40% less earnings. Inflation is theft. Bitcoin fixes this. No one has ever explained a better solution to inflation than Bitcoin. Fiat money printing is a scam that lets politicians spend more money without directly raising taxes. Bitcoin is honest sound money with a fixed inflation policy forever that cannot be manipulated by a…

Inflation is not some unfortunate built-in side effect of fiat but a deliberate policy choice by specific organizations and people. Why would they all of a sudden give up those policies and embrace the crypto-land?

Money-printing has enriched a cohort of corrupt central bankers and their cronies such as politicians. I don’t expect them to give up a policy that has unjustly enriched them for so long.

Luckily we don’t need their support for Bitcoin to work. Bitcoin operates on the game theory that offers individuals a choice to save in a currency that cannot be manipulated. Over time, more and more individuals will choose the better money.

Re: Bitcoin Failed in El Salvador. The President Says the Answer Is More Bitcoin

#250
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m exhausted by the fiat money scam 2% annual inflation over a 40 year career amounts to 40% less earnings. Inflation is theft. Bitcoin fixes this. No one has ever explained a better solution to inflation than Bitcoin. Fiat money printing is a scam that lets politicians spend more money without directly raising taxes. Bitcoin is honest sound money with a fixed inflation policy forever that cannot be manipulated by a…

Have you heard of asking for a raise? Also, last I checked, the price of essential good in Bitcoin, assuming the contra-factual that it were possible to buy such things with Bitcoin, hasn’t exactly been constant for 40 years.

Asking for a raise works for me and you since we have pricing power, but what of those less fortunate? What about those on minimum wage, or fixed salaries or pensions or welfare? They don’t have the ability to continuously increase their prices to match inflation.

TL;DR your solution works for the most in-demand workers in society but it causes greater and greater income inequality over time leading those who are most vulnerable to fall further and further behind.

For more details, see https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

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