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As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

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Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#51
post #3

The value of cryptocurrency is 0.

Not to someone who has had civil asset forfeiture experience.

Is this really something that people in the USA spend their days worrying about? Serious question, as it is not part of the law over here in the part of the world where I live. Also, with every crypto transaction recorded on the public ledger and the vast majority of wallets held in exchanges, why wouldn't the police just acquire the crypto too?

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#52

Crypto is worthless. All the VCs pouring money into crypto/web3 (a16h, sequoia) are worthless. All the companies pivoting to web3 are worthless (square). All the companies building up web3 teams are worthless (stripe, mastercard). All the fastest growing startups (coinbase, ftx, opensea) are worthless. All the devs who get started in crypto/web3 and won't go back, are worthless.

I must congratulate on your excellent demonstration of Poe's Law.

Nonetheless, to the extent that you are being serious and not sarcastic, I largely agree with you.

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#53

Crypto is worthless. All the VCs pouring money into crypto/web3 (a16h, sequoia) are worthless. All the companies pivoting to web3 are worthless (square). All the companies building up web3 teams are worthless (stripe, mastercard). All the fastest growing startups (coinbase, ftx, opensea) are worthless. All the devs who get started in crypto/web3 and won't go back, are worthless.

Money is hard to value. Fundamentally, it relies on a consensus that it's useful and valuable, but there's nothing inherent in money that makes it that way. It's a useful collective hallucination.

So is crypto. Some people came up with a collective hallucination that they considered useful and valuable, and convinced some other people that it was, because, hey, we all like valuable things, especially when we can create them out of thin air and sell them to people for other shiny things that we like.

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#54
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know if you’re serious. Your username does check out at least. I also believe crypto itself is worthless. Only the networks behind them and actually providing a service (transaction validation) have some value. The question is: can the networks survive a crypto crash. How do you pay miners with near zero value crypto? I can see a (sad) future where we will be left with central bank digital currencies only (CB…

Pretty sure the parent was being sarcastic (and provocative). In real terms it’s worth whatever the next buyer is willing to pay. It annoys me that people cite the run-up over the last decade as evidence of it’s brilliance when it’s nothing of the sort, but I’d just sound like a loon screaming into the wind. Personally I think it’s worthless. Honestly I suspect Satoshi Nakamoto (if they’re still alive) probably think…

Although I agree with your view there is one aspect you aren't considering - Bitcoin is currently backed by a mining network that is managing to achieve around 200 Exahashes/second or however they measure it. A big number.

While at a theoretical level different crypto tokens are the same that will not be how the market plays out. That sort of computing power isn't easily replaced and while it exists Bitcoin is unique. So it does have value at the moment, but the value is not inherent in the protocol.

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#55
Value is defined by the expected return on investment or equity.

Since there is none in crypto, you're essentially buying into Monopoly money, with the assumption that it's going to get more popular and not less popular or disappear over time.

But make no mistake, to some people it's everything, to others it's a fartcicle. So it's roughly worth between nothing and what you can find an idiot willing to pay for it.

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#56

Most "cryptos" are just affinity scams riding on the coattails of the true innovation of Bitcoin. They offer nothing significantly new or important over Bitcoin. Most people in the space understand this and why. Institutional investors starting to come in understand this. State governments are starting to understand this. The energy sector is starting to understand this. Yes crypto is a bubble, and it will pop. When…

You seem to have some ...

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#57

What I find find interesting is how overwhelmingly negative the responses here are now, when a month ago being a skeptic was a minority position. Does that shift seem recognisable to others? If correct, what's the drastic change driven from? Edit: spelling

A month ago skepticism about crypto was very much not a minority position on HN. AFAICT, it has been the default position for at least several years. Check out this article from 10 months ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26063920 or this other article from 4 years ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16216329 or even this article from 6 years ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10905118.

In all cases people are rather reserved about it, if not outright hostile. I think it is because many on HN have a lot of technical experience and can immediately see that normal databases can do everything blockchains can at a fraction of the cost except the whole trustless thing, while everything interfacing with the real world (ie everything not a currency) will involve a lot of trust anyway. Someone has to enter the data into the oracles, for example.

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#58
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to someone who has had civil asset forfeiture experience.

Is this really something that people in the USA spend their days worrying about? Serious question, as it is not part of the law over here in the part of the world where I live. Also, with every crypto transaction recorded on the public ledger and the vast majority of wallets held in exchanges, why wouldn't the police just acquire the crypto too?

I'm sure they could seize it, since they can and do freeze and sieze bank accounts as well.

However self custody ensures they can never get it even if they kill you, and since it is programmable money there is a way to ensure it gets to a friendly address, maybe years later, perhaps to a loved one.

Seems the market places a worth on a possession that can not be taken from you by force, or even by your death, slightly more than 0.

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#60
You value Bitcoin like every other currency, like US dollar or Turkish lira. However, you have to go back in history to learn what happens when multiple currencies compete in a free market (gold, silver, copper, etc.). People typically want to save the money which has the lowest expected dilution and get rid of all other forms of money. On top of that, people want to save the money which everyone else is saving. You can't predict the value, but you can predict the direction where wealth is flowing.
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