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As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

fundamentalinvestor.substack.com

41–50 of 193 posts

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#41
post #7

It’s not entirely the same but transaction fees paid to the platform can be considered revenue.

Transaction processors provide a service consisting in processing transactions, and transaction fees are a good estimate of how much utility such services provide. But this does not not tell us anything about the 'value' of cryptocurrencies.

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#42
post #28

Crypto is worthless. All the VCs pouring money into crypto/web3 (a16h, sequoia) are worthless. All the companies pivoting to web3 are worthless (square). All the companies building up web3 teams are worthless (stripe, mastercard). All the fastest growing startups (coinbase, ftx, opensea) are worthless. All the devs who get started in crypto/web3 and won't go back, are worthless.

Everything is worthless in itself. We give value to things subjectively and mediate this valuation through intersubjective consensus mechanisms. I'm glad that now we are in a position where a personal decision and valuation really counts, this is why I'm only taking web3 related jobs from now on.

Everything that doesn't serve a human basic need, of which there are many. Food is not worthless in itself, nor is shelter, security, human contact, etc.

Extreme subjectivism never fed nobody nor kept them worm. It only made them think they are smart.

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#43
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know if you’re serious. Your username does check out at least. I also believe crypto itself is worthless. Only the networks behind them and actually providing a service (transaction validation) have some value. The question is: can the networks survive a crypto crash. How do you pay miners with near zero value crypto? I can see a (sad) future where we will be left with central bank digital currencies only (CB…

Pretty sure the parent was being sarcastic (and provocative). In real terms it’s worth whatever the next buyer is willing to pay. It annoys me that people cite the run-up over the last decade as evidence of it’s brilliance when it’s nothing of the sort, but I’d just sound like a loon screaming into the wind. Personally I think it’s worthless. Honestly I suspect Satoshi Nakamoto (if they’re still alive) probably think…

> In real terms it’s worth whatever the next buyer is willing to pay.

Yes, that's how scams and con games are played too. I personally can't tell the difference between a cryptocurrency and the classic gold brick scam.

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#44
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know if you’re serious. Your username does check out at least. I also believe crypto itself is worthless. Only the networks behind them and actually providing a service (transaction validation) have some value. The question is: can the networks survive a crypto crash. How do you pay miners with near zero value crypto? I can see a (sad) future where we will be left with central bank digital currencies only (CB…

The "Networks behind them" are also worthless, if you mean blockchain. Consider the oracle problem, the fact that running Hello World requires mining a block, that software contains errors and cannot be patched on the blockchain, the curious absence of real world applications of blockchain after all those years, and the inevitable precedence of the Law in the real world that makes any "the code is the law" ideas moot…

You could never ever patch log4j.

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#45
post #5

The author looks at this from the perspective of making money. Bitcoin is a form of money. It's like HTTP/HTTPS vs IPv4/IPv6. Bitcoin operates at a lower level than stocks, looking at it from that perspective is like looking at the facebook home page and trying to understand the value of IPv6. Investing/speculating is all about increasing a counter. Here we are talking about another separate counter.

Investing is about increasing production capacity or production efficiency, with the expectation of getting a positive return on investment in the future. Everything else is not investing, but speculation.

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#46
post #18

Crypto is worthless. All the VCs pouring money into crypto/web3 (a16h, sequoia) are worthless. All the companies pivoting to web3 are worthless (square). All the companies building up web3 teams are worthless (stripe, mastercard). All the fastest growing startups (coinbase, ftx, opensea) are worthless. All the devs who get started in crypto/web3 and won't go back, are worthless.

I don’t know if you’re serious. Your username does check out at least. I also believe crypto itself is worthless. Only the networks behind them and actually providing a service (transaction validation) have some value. The question is: can the networks survive a crypto crash. How do you pay miners with near zero value crypto? I can see a (sad) future where we will be left with central bank digital currencies only (CB…

> I can see a (sad) future where we will be left with central bank digital currencies only (CBDC).

And you can take a guess of which cryptocurrencies are going to be the ones powering these CBDCs?

Stellar [0], and XRP [1].

The other useless cryptocurrencies with no other use cases such as the memecoins, meme tokens, etc will wither away.

[0] https://resources.stellar.org/stellar-for-cbdcs

[1] https://ripple.com/insights/ripple-joins-the-digital-pound-f...

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#48
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to someone who has had civil asset forfeiture experience.

Things can have high utility without any actual value. Toothpicks, eating utensils, screwdrivers, etc. The problem comes when people mistake one for another. IOW, buying a bunch of screwdrivers isn't a great retirement strategy.

If you buy quality screwdrivers you'll be able to resell them for a good price.

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#49
Crypto is not hard to value. Valuation is the estimation of the present value of future free cash flows. Since most crypto tokens produce negligible free cash flows relative to their market cap, they have approximately zero intrinsic value relative to their market price.

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#50
Most "cryptos" are just affinity scams riding on the coattails of the true innovation of Bitcoin. They offer nothing significantly new or important over Bitcoin. Most people in the space understand this and why. Institutional investors starting to come in understand this. State governments are starting to understand this. The energy sector is starting to understand this.

Yes crypto is a bubble, and it will pop. When it does Bitcoin will likely get dragged down with it for a while, but at the end of the day it will be one of the few left standing.

Save yourself time, money, and effort. Ignore all other cryptos, and just buy Bitcoin (i.e. dollar cost average), and hold it for 4+ years.

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