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Defund the Police meets the crime wave

bariweiss.substack.com

251–260 of 365 posts

Re: Defund the Police meets the crime wave

#251

Sorry, but I haven't seen any evidence for a "crime wave" in 2020-2021. FBI stats show a slight uptick in violent crimes. These rates haven't been seen since... gasp ... 2017. If police-civilian interactions really decreased 80% (as quoted in the article), and in exchange violent crime only raised 5.6% [0], personally that shows even dramatic reductions in police presence don't lead to complete "anarchy". I fear, giv…

That data doesn't show 2021. It only goes up to 2020. You don't have to try very hard to find data that supports a massive uptick in violent crime in 2021. Dozens of cities have reported all-time-high murder rates. Even cities like Philedelphia, which was already pretty high to begin with. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/27/us-murder-ra... I don't think it is due to defunding the police, however. As has…

> Dozens of cities have reported all-time-high murder rates

I call bullshit if you're meaning actual cities aka 500k+ people and using rate to mean rate.

We're not even remotely close to the 90s.

Re: Defund the Police meets the crime wave

#252
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except they're still paying for it and the police weren't defunded https://www.ktvu.com/news/oakland-didnt-cut-any-money-from-t...

Threatening to defund the police generally lowers the quality of your existing police. Pretend you run a business and say you are cutting salaries. Employees will look for other jobs or just be demotivated in general. Couple that with an increasing hostile work environment, you have the situation at hand. Do you work as hard when you know management is gunning for your job?

So the excuse is that the police are allowing shootings and other crimes because they aren't motivated enough? Because they might be held to a higher standard? Because they might not get their awesome new toys? Stop treating them like children. I'm amazed when people will go to any lengths to excuse the police.

Re: Defund the Police meets the crime wave

#253

I read most of the article, in which the author implies that defunding the police increases crime, and blames the people in charge of Oakland with this crime. Yet I recalled hearing that police budgets in Oakland were steady to up this year, despite the protests. A quick search seems to confirm this: https://www.ktvu.com/news/oakland-didnt-cut-any-money-from-t... >Despite claims to the contrary, the Oakland City Coun…

His main point is that defunding the police without an alternative that has been proven to reduce crime does the opposite. It increases crime over time. What he outlines is true. I hear a lot about cutting the police but little to nothing about what will replace it as a proven way to reduce crime. Also, all budgets need to increase just to keep up with inflation. So just because a budget is increased or it stays the…

Maybe that's their point, but it's not convincing if it's using made-up information, which is my point.

The inflation argument is not very convincing to me either. Both of those measures (inflation, budget) are objective facts that are absent from the article. Also "police budgets not quite keeping up with inflation is causing chaos in my neighborhood" is not very convincing.

Re: Defund the Police meets the crime wave

#255
> The shooting didn’t even make the local news. Apparently, in the Bay Area right now, you can walk up a residential street firing your gun into houses, and you still won’t be able to compete for attention with all of the other sensational crimes.

The Bay Area includes San Jose (25 murders a year), Oakland (normally 110 murders a year), San Francisco (50 murders a year), and dozens of other cities which are mostly more peaceful but contribute several dozen more murders a year to the total. So it has roughly one murder every day. There's a nice historical overview of the statistics at https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/Homicides-increase..., explaining that Oakland's murder rate has gone up 45% in 02021. The Merc has a great homicide map at https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/01/06/bay-area-homicides-20...

A murder a day is plenty for the local news most of the time. So it's hardly surprising that a drive-by shooting that failed to actually shoot anybody wouldn't make the news, because things like that happen every day, and have been for thirty or forty years. This is not, in itself, a symptom of anything unusual in the SFBA this year.

(Of course, there are many unusual things in the SFBA this year, since it's the second year of the pandemic, but a crime wave doesn't seem to be one of them, except in Oakland.)

scrollbar points out in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29503928 that in fact Oakland increased their police budget this year by US$39 million. So, if we're supposed to infer a causal relation from police defunding to homicide rates from these data, it would be the opposite of the one Weiss (or Leighton?) arrived at: increased police funding "caused" a huge jump in the homicide rate. This is not entirely implausible, but it seems unlikely to pan out on further investigation (for reasons Leighton mentions later in the story).

You can see from the SF Chron story I linked above that Oakland's murder rate has mostly been between 20 and 40 per 100,000 residents per year for half a century, peaking above 40 from the leaded-gasoline crime wave just after 01990. This is very much in conflict with Leighton's portrayal of Oakland as being full of "areas where crime and violence are more of an abstraction than a daily reality", as is the Merc's map. The corresponding number for the US as a whole from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intention... is 5.0. Oakland is more like Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria, and South Africa than it is like the US; its spectacular murder rate puts it in the neighborhood of the top 50 cities in the world: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_murder_rate. On https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b..., it was #23 by murder rate among US cities in 02019, before the current crime wave, with a historically very low rate of 16.24 (and #3 for robbery, and #2 for motor-vehicle theft.)

I remember one afternoon, early in the current millennium, when I went to visit a friend in Oakland. I was having a hard time finding a place to park on her block. Her neighbor across the street was practicing martial arts with weapons in his yard, but he was kind enough to interrupt his practice long enough to push someone else's car along the curb a few meters, making space for mine. For me, that memory defines Oakland more than the memories of lovely afternoons on the grass at Lake Merritt.

Re: Defund the Police meets the crime wave

#256
post #235
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I was surprise there was no return fire, then I saw it was CA. I'm in CA and am surrounded by neighbors with guns, for better or worse. If you think CA is devoid of gun owners you're sorely mistaken.

It depends where you are in CA, I specifically moved to a place where I would know people around me don't own guns (SF). I have a hard time seeing myself live anywhere where people are allowed to carry or buy guns liberally.

> I have a hard time seeing myself live anywhere where people are allowed to carry or buy guns liberally.

you're not safe from these people in SF unfortunately due to new jurisprudence around 2A post-heller.

Re: Defund the Police meets the crime wave

#257
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main item in certain states is not prosecuting crime. We recently had a smash and grab robbery that made news here in SoCal. The suspects were quickly apprehended, but it turns out they were released on bail almost immediately afterwards. Due to the non-prosecution of criminal acts, these people will probably never do any jail time. People are definitely cognizant of this at this point, and it's eroding peoples t…

Related to OPs point, Proposition 47 in California reclassified certain thefts under $950 to a misdemeanor instead of a felony. There is evidence that this has resulted in increases in such crimes.

I don’t believe this argument. The dollar amount was $400 previously. Most shoplifting was already under $400 and I’m being asked to believe, from unreliable sources, that changing it to $950 alone changed things?

Misdemeanors still carry punishment and possible jail time.

What’s missing?

Re: Defund the Police meets the crime wave

#258
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not op. When the call for reform is "defund" and that seems like the wrong thing to do, then people don't support sensible reform. One would imagine that many if not most police officers support some kinds of sensible reform but probably hesitate to support "defunding" their wages and have their and their colleagues jobs cut, which is what "defund" really sounds like. It's a total us and them mentality which is not t…

My point is that it doesn’t make sense to say “you called for defunding the police, we didn’t defund the police, things got worse, therefore your slogan is bad.”

The slogan is bad because it channels the energy initiated by real problems into the worst idea possible. True, in many - though not all - cases this terrible idea was recognised as such even by the woke city managers and kept at the level of bloviating without doing much. That's still bad and the slogan still bad, and the opportunity wasted still bad. Not as bad as when this idea is actually implemented (not in Oakland but happened in other places afaik).

Re: Defund the Police meets the crime wave

#259
Except police budgets have been increasing for decades, and the amount of crime has as well.

The biggest problem is every time there’s any suggestion that maybe the police aren’t actually doing a good job, police stop working and then blame any change in crime of lack of money.

This is ignoring the non-theft crime caused by police (pedofile ring in Oakland PD, fraud, murders, etc). they also change their reporting of crimes to inflate or deflate the rate of crime as necessary.

Hell they’ll even create their own crime wave if necessary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Boston_arson_spree

Despite being the most significant cause of theft in the US.

Re: Defund the Police meets the crime wave

#260
post #233

I combined https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b... and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mayors_of_the_50_large... (proxy for political party), and found that the top 13 cities with the highest crime rate in that combined data set were democratic. 7 out of 9 republican cities were in the half with the lower crime rate. Interestingly, all 3 cities with independent party mayors were in the l…

no offense, but that feels like a useless statistic. All the large cities in the US are blue, and large cities attract the most crime.

No offense taken, I myself conceded "this is totally unscientific" and noted that large cities tend to be democratic. The crime statistics are per capita, but again, you would still expect larger cities to have higher crime rates.

Edit: Actually, I was surprised to find that the cities with the highest populations didn't necessarily have the highest per capita crime. Compare Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York to Detroit, Baltimore, and Kansas City. The latter are all smaller but have higher per capita crime.

Also, to control for size somewhat, I compared cities in the dataset with population between 390K and 500K (6 democratic cities / 6 republican). Again, dividing in half by per capita crime rate, 5 of 6 top crime cities are democratic, and 5 of 6 low crime cities are republican. The ordered list for anyone curious (low to high crime) is: Virginia Beach Mesa Colorado Springs Omaha Sacramento Miami Atlanta Wichita Tulsa Minneapolis Oakland Kansas City

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