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‘Tipping point’ makes partisan polarization irreversible in research model

news.cornell.edu

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Re: ‘Tipping point’ makes partisan polarization irreversible in research model

#11

Post by 9wzYQbTYsAIc »

travisporter wrote: post #4
9wzYQbTYsAIc wrote: post #2

Here is the original research: https://www.pnas.org/content/118/50/e2102144118

Thank you open access! But did I find a typo? "Nevertheless, we make no claims about the model’s predictive accuracy. The model is highly abstract and remains to be empirically calibrated and tested. Nor can we assume that tipping points would obtain in radically different applications, such as affective polarization, voter polarization, or media polarization."

They were documenting the computational model that they used and they did note that it had some predictive success.

Additionally,

“ We see indications of empirical validation in recent events. Prior to 2019, one might have assumed that a global pandemic would bring together those who disagreed on issues for which hot-button righteous indignation was a luxury that could no longer be afforded. Instead, mask wearing became a partisan crest that identified friend and foe on a partisan battlefield. Similar dynamics can be observed in the two impeachment trials of former President Donald Trump. In the first trial, evidence of collusion with a foreign government failed to exert the expected unifying effect. In the second case, an attack on the US Capitol initially elicited bipartisan outrage, followed by a reversal of position among Republican leaders in the weeks leading up to the Senate trial.”

Re: ‘Tipping point’ makes partisan polarization irreversible in research model

#12

Post by 9wzYQbTYsAIc »

malfist wrote: post #6

How could it possible be irreversible? Is there any partisan polarization that's lasted a thousand years? How about even just a couple hundred? Even slavery was abolished in the US and that seemed like an irreversible polarization.

They used Chekoslovakia as an example, as well as climate change.

Re: ‘Tipping point’ makes partisan polarization irreversible in research model

#13

Post by vaidhy »

malfist wrote: post #6

How could it possible be irreversible? Is there any partisan polarization that's lasted a thousand years? How about even just a couple hundred? Even slavery was abolished in the US and that seemed like an irreversible polarization.

Shia-Sunni, Turkey-Greek, Catholic-Reformation are a few that come to mind. Take a look at Middle East and you would see long standing polarization.. Anti-semitism is also another long standing polarization.

Slavery was abolished, but you still have people flying confederate flags and arguing for slavery (in a more modern rendition)

Re: ‘Tipping point’ makes partisan polarization irreversible in research model

#14

Post by dwater »

malfist wrote: post #6

How could it possible be irreversible? Is there any partisan polarization that's lasted a thousand years? How about even just a couple hundred? Even slavery was abolished in the US and that seemed like an irreversible polarization.

Slavery was abolished unilaterally, not as a reversal of the political polarization, and it could be argued that although the explicit practice of slavery is no longer polarizing, Jim Crow laws and their modern antecedents such as The Southern Strategy have been continually polarizing in American politics ever since.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_strategy

Re: ‘Tipping point’ makes partisan polarization irreversible in research model

#15

Post by xupybd »

belval wrote: post #10

I am skeptical of the framing of the original work in the article. If you actually read the original research, it boils down to building a model on willingness to cooperate based on differing views and observing that past a specific point cooperation is no longer possible. This is not uninteresting for the scientist in me, but the kind of large generalization made in the article are simply not supported by the work n…

This might be a positive. Maybe modern society allows for more diversity of thought?

Re: ‘Tipping point’ makes partisan polarization irreversible in research model

#16

Post by blakesterz »

> “If we reach that point, we cannot unite even in the face of war, climate change, pandemics, or other challenges to the survival of our society.”

We no longer have differences in opinion, we have differences of reality. Climate Change, pandemics, January 6th... the list goes on and on now.

Re: ‘Tipping point’ makes partisan polarization irreversible in research model

#17

Post by sneak »

tomlockwood wrote: post #8

[flagged]

Yup, it's crazy. Now we're coming up on a million dead in the USA, many of them entirely preventable, and the culpability stands directly at the feet of the culture warriors on both sides of this partisan divide.

(Does the previous sentence upset you and make you want to point fingers at your opposing partisan group? If so, you may be part of the problem I am describing.)

Only fools try to win an argument with their spouse, or pick an unnecessary fight with their neighbor.

It's really the senseless, avoidable destruction, death, and suffering that bothers me.

People in the USA will cut off their own nose to spite their face.

Today the Times is reporting a bipartisan effort to fund and support the >100k kids who lost a parent or caregiver recently.

The mind reels.

Even before we hit 100k dead, I wondered how many fewer would have to die if the pandemic had broken out in a non-election year.

Re: ‘Tipping point’ makes partisan polarization irreversible in research model

#18

Post by AnimalMuppet »

malfist wrote: post #6

How could it possible be irreversible? Is there any partisan polarization that's lasted a thousand years? How about even just a couple hundred? Even slavery was abolished in the US and that seemed like an irreversible polarization.

Slavery took a civil war with 500,000 dead to end the polarization. Yeah, it ended, and that's good, but... is there a way where we can end that kind of polarization without 500,000 dead?

Re: ‘Tipping point’ makes partisan polarization irreversible in research model

#19

Post by ynth7 »

malfist wrote: post #6

How could it possible be irreversible? Is there any partisan polarization that's lasted a thousand years? How about even just a couple hundred? Even slavery was abolished in the US and that seemed like an irreversible polarization.

Understanding logical fallacy has been shown to act as an “inoculant” against fake news.

I don’t think these things reverse (time doesn’t go backwards) so much as settle as the last generation that held such beliefs dies off.

>80% followed religion in the US in ‘99. Now it’s It’s how it goes; humans were the hard drives and CPUs of our economics until recently, and the costly in real terms old money network winds down with them. A lot of folks will feel disenfranchised, many rightly so, but also of lot rich folks today made it rich in an era of imploding pensions and gambling away others retirements, so if they get hosed, oh well.

In the end all will be forgotten and implicitly I think we know that so we just keep going.

Re: ‘Tipping point’ makes partisan polarization irreversible in research model

#20

Post by DFHippie »

Well, we're at a point where foreign attacks on our elections are a partisan issue, the response to a pandemic which has killed some 770k citizens is a partisan issue, whether or not we can use democratic elections to select our leaders is a partisan issue, to say nothing of catastrophic climate change. But then, for much of the first century of the existence of the US whether or not some humans could own others as slaves was a partisan issue, and then whether you could secede if an election didn't go your way was a partisan issue (hey, history rhymed!). If there are tipping points, we seem to be able to make the phase shift back the other way again, albeit with horrendous casualties. So there's hope.
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