Groups never admit failure • Hacker News Board

Re: Groups never admit failure

#321

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Dec 09, 2021, 1:25 PM UTC

VLM wrote: post #122

Animats wrote: post #3

A group will never admit they were wrong. A group will never admit, “We made a mistake,” because a group that tries to change its mind falls apart. I’m hard pressed to find examples in history of large groups that said, “We thought A, but the answer’s actually B.” Now that is a useful insight. It's a big problem for voluntary associations. Companies can sometimes change their culture, but it usually requires replacin…

> the ascendancy of drones and the usefulness of the A-10 Its really a popularity problem in that there is a doctrine of "we need something survivable in BVR and active ADA" but we don't like talking about that situation as much as pew-pew A-10s are cool and we always plan to fight the last war where there was no BVR or ADA threat (not after the first few days...) Inevitably we will someday go up against an opponent…

[deleted]

Re: Groups never admit failure

#322

Post by enkid » Thu, Dec 09, 2021, 1:30 PM UTC

nathanyz wrote: post #204

jameslk wrote: post #56

> A group will never admit they were wrong. A group will never admit, “We made a mistake,” because a group that tries to change its mind falls apart. I’m hard pressed to find examples in history of large groups that said, “We thought A, but the answer’s actually B.” Just because the author can't think of an example doesn't make it true. In fact groups of people, typically businesses, admit failure all the time. And i…

Probably more correct to say that: "A group never admits they are wrong about the core identifying belief that defines the group" Groups admit being wrong about non-core beliefs all of the time. But of course if you look at the core belief that actually categorizes whether you are in the group or not, then it cannot admit being wrong or else it ceases to exist. Having said that, I think the author is really making a…

Now that is something that is true for people as well as groups. That's why it's so important to be careful how you assign your identity.

Re: Groups never admit failure

#323

Post by MagnumOpus » Thu, Dec 09, 2021, 1:49 PM UTC

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #266

Animats wrote: post #3

A group will never admit they were wrong. A group will never admit, “We made a mistake,” because a group that tries to change its mind falls apart. I’m hard pressed to find examples in history of large groups that said, “We thought A, but the answer’s actually B.” Now that is a useful insight. It's a big problem for voluntary associations. Companies can sometimes change their culture, but it usually requires replacin…

I love the A-10, but it is really only useful in places like Afghanistan where you have air superiority, combined arms, artillery, mobile infantry, and the enemy is farm boys with AK-47s. Now don't get me wrong, I don't think we should discontinue it, because man we do a lot of oppression of teenagers with AK-47s in the last 50 years. Really the US Military should have an "occupation and oppression" service branch if…

> "occupation and oppression" service branch

The USMC is planned to become that, no? No tanks or artillery anymore and very few jets, but instead lots of helos and drones and mortars and MRAP cars and landing equipment for suppressing insurgents anywhere in the world.

(Not even kidding...)

Re: Groups never admit failure

#324

Post by ChrisMarshallNY » Thu, Dec 09, 2021, 2:19 PM UTC

I'm sorry to read this. It is very cynical.

It's not necessarily wrong, but I perceive it as inductive reasoning (failure to admit failure means failure, as a whole), that may not apply to many application contexts.

I've been in the NPO world for over 40 years (as a side gig). I have family that have been in it for even longer (as a full-time vocation); with varying degrees of success. I have friends that work at some very famous and effective NPOs.

I've had lots of failure; both individually, and as a member of a team, and we have always admitted it. I have also had what might be perceived, in the for-profit world, as "failure," but was actually a form of success, in the long game.

The same kind of thing can be ascribed to academia, and even to a selection of for-profit endeavors. I have seen this behavior many times in my "day jobs."

That said, the NPO/Academia world is pretty crazy, compared to the neat, clean lines of for-profit organizations. The main currencies tend to be passion, reputation, and ego, as opposed to money, and that leads to some "strange" behavior. Also, people can be quite ... driven, so the fights can be ... invigorating.

Re: Groups never admit failure

#325

Post by lazide » Thu, Dec 09, 2021, 2:26 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #3

A group will never admit they were wrong. A group will never admit, “We made a mistake,” because a group that tries to change its mind falls apart. I’m hard pressed to find examples in history of large groups that said, “We thought A, but the answer’s actually B.” Now that is a useful insight. It's a big problem for voluntary associations. Companies can sometimes change their culture, but it usually requires replacin…

The more the change is forced from the outside - either through someone who has them by the purse strings, or by existential threat of death (complete military defeat in the field), the more at stake and the more it is fought. It isn’t impossible however.

But it isn’t like Hitler was waving a white flag and being contrite. I can’t say he was wrong that death was the easy way out with the situation that he had made.

In my experience, the more negative the communication/power style, the more all or nothing the internal politics of the organization tend to be, and the less likely ‘gentle’ change can happen.

Admitting an error in a leader even in most considered positive medium to large organizations is considered a complete failure requiring their removal. At the nation state level, very few countries let a national leader even bow out without the next in line trying to throw them in jail or execute them.

Good luck having a productive shift in policy in that case instead of ‘we WILL make it work’ - including lining people against the wall if they don’t agree.

Re: Groups never admit failure

#326

Post by BurnGpuBurn » Thu, Dec 09, 2021, 2:44 PM UTC

yboris wrote: post #82

Counterpoint: GiveWell has a link "Our Mistakes" directly on the main navigation bar! https://www.givewell.org/about/our-mistakes It's beautiful to see such behavior <3

Looks great, although all their mistakes are minor process mistakes. They never admit something like "We gave these guys money but they wasted it, so we shouldn't have".

Re: Groups never admit failure

#327

Post by rjsw » Thu, Dec 09, 2021, 2:48 PM UTC

valec wrote: post #116

Animats wrote: post #3

A group will never admit they were wrong. A group will never admit, “We made a mistake,” because a group that tries to change its mind falls apart. I’m hard pressed to find examples in history of large groups that said, “We thought A, but the answer’s actually B.” Now that is a useful insight. It's a big problem for voluntary associations. Companies can sometimes change their culture, but it usually requires replacin…

the A-10 is actually the perfect "fighter mafia" plane aside from its weight. the fighter mafia basically wanted more maneuverability, cheaper planes and CAS than interdiction bombing. A-10 is all of those except light. they were vehemently opposed to optimizing planes for beyond visual range (BVR) combat like by improving sensors or stealth because they considered it "a fantasy." problem is missiles fired 100 miles…

The A-10 is too slow even for COIN operations, it can't get to where it is needed fast enough. The most effective smart bomb truck right now is the B-1B. It is fast, has long endurance, large payload and can designate targets itself.

Re: Groups never admit failure

#328

Post by text70 » Thu, Dec 09, 2021, 2:50 PM UTC

Barrin92 wrote: post #111

>I’m hard pressed to find examples in history of large groups that said, “We thought A, but the answer’s actually B.” Being German I would like to think that while there's always opportunity to be more introspective about your history over the last few generations we've done an okay job of correcting some historical mistakes, and that's a pretty decently sized group. >If you want to change the world to a better place…

GPT-3 looks like the best answer here. There are more than a few outliers I can think of A then B logic as written, which indicates a limited training set database of, like you said, a few podcasts and biographies.

Re: Groups never admit failure

#329

Post by raducu » Thu, Dec 09, 2021, 2:53 PM UTC

vanadium wrote: post #142

kashyapc wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably that can be a useful insight in some specific circumstances as you describe, but it falls flat as a generalization. Allow me a snark: maybe a group of venture capitalists (many of whom call themselves "angels") might not admit a mistake. But many groups (not as grandiose as the military, though) jolly well admit and own up non-trivial mistakes. I participate in several open source projects over 13 years now.…

I think what separates the two camps is a positive incentive to admit failure, which is where the rarity comes in, as highlighted by other posters. If the group's incentive is integrity and trust, or loyalty and retention, it makes sense as there's a capital (political, monetary, etc.) incentive in doing so. That's where I think the insight cleanly falls apart and yet holds up pretty well for the vast majority of sit…

Groups can get a life of their own, like a virus. Those who do admit fault can be replaced with others who are vocal about not admitting fault.

The more polarizing, non falsifiable the beliefs of the group, the harder the change.

Re: Groups never admit failure

#330

Post by native_samples » Thu, Dec 09, 2021, 2:58 PM UTC

hef19898 wrote: post #320

native_samples wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This pretty much sums up the last two years of fighting COVID. Governments/media/academics: we will solve the problem by doing X. Sceptics: that won't work / isn't working / hasn't worked. Governments/media/academics: it isn't working because of the unbelievers.

Academics mostly got it right, media thrived on conflict and false-balance while politics, especially German politics, were more concerned about elections than anything else.

How'd you figure that? Academics have been wrong about this from the start, I'd say. Their models are a byword for joke pseudo-science. But I guess your reference to "false balance" means we can infer what your beliefs are here. Groups never admit failure and one way they don't admit it, is by finding clever sounding excuses to not listen to those who were right.