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Groups never admit failure

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Re: Groups never admit failure

#271

Post by Mulpze15 »

jameslk wrote: post #56

> A group will never admit they were wrong. A group will never admit, “We made a mistake,” because a group that tries to change its mind falls apart. I’m hard pressed to find examples in history of large groups that said, “We thought A, but the answer’s actually B.” Just because the author can't think of an example doesn't make it true. In fact groups of people, typically businesses, admit failure all the time. And i…

Sports teams. Many admit failures collectively. Not always for sure, depending on the circumstances, but it happens very frequently. Small group though.

Re: Groups never admit failure

#272

Post by ArnoVW »

Eelongate wrote: post #205
Symmetry wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In extreme cases you have evaporative heating of groups where after some major setback all the more moderate members leave and the remainder are on average more attached to the group and more fanatical. This is pretty common to see when religious cults have prophesies that fail to pan out.

*Evaporative cooling

I think he meant to write heating. Because the moderate (slow) parts leave, keeping the 'hot' members.

Re: Groups never admit failure

#274

Post by Fnoord »

ancode wrote: post #156
renewiltord wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, Germany had to be made to do that. We had to remake the nation into one that has changed its dogma from "we were right" to "we were wrong". The fact that the populace accepted it is awesome, actually, but it needed to be done to them.

Pretty sure it took two tries also

Blaming WWI entirely on Germany is myopic, and is in part what set the social unrest in the Weimar Republic in the first place. The huge debt was put on Germany, and they were heavily dependent on loans. When the US economy crashed in 1929, they were done for. If Germany did not take the full blame for WWI, WWII arguably never happened. Because someone like Hitler wouldn't have been able to rise to power via a massive social unrest.

Re: Groups never admit failure

#275

Post by passion__desire »

derbOac wrote: post #77
Animats wrote: post #3

A group will never admit they were wrong. A group will never admit, “We made a mistake,” because a group that tries to change its mind falls apart. I’m hard pressed to find examples in history of large groups that said, “We thought A, but the answer’s actually B.” Now that is a useful insight. It's a big problem for voluntary associations. Companies can sometimes change their culture, but it usually requires replacin…

I think the essay is strongly written — never is a strong word — but it resonated with me because of a personal experience. In that experience part of the problem was that those who disagreed with the group were purged out of the group one way or another, either because they chose to exit out of disgust or because they were driven away, or something in between. So there was a "survivorship bias" in the group, where "…

Just like it takes time for probabilites to flow from one atomic orbital to another, I would assume this could form basis for the analogy for why it takes time for groups to change their mind.

Atomic Orbitals, Visualized Dynamically - https://youtu.be/BPkcDWLBsrI?t=412

Re: Groups never admit failure

#276

Post by dotancohen »

ProjectArcturis wrote: post #188
Marazan wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The astonishing thing was that the UK had just sustained a massive bombing campaign by Germany whixh had veeu obviously and singularly failed to break the civilain spirit and make the UK sue for peace. So, obviously, the UK airforce proposed that a massive bombing campaign would clearly break the German civilian spirit and force Germany to sue for peace.

Well yes, but the Blitz was never all that effective. London was never burned like Dresden, let alone Hiroshima. In any case, the aim was absolute destruction of production, not civilian demoralization.

The bombing of Dresden was very late in the war. Those making decisions in 1942 would not have had the insight to see how the bombing would (fail to) break the civilian spirit. On the contrary, in fact, for the Germans Dresden was as much of a propaganda win as are dead children for Hamas today, even when Hamas kills the children themselves.

Re: Groups never admit failure

#277

Post by ComodoHacker »

hcarvalhoalves wrote: post #69
Animats wrote: post #3

A group will never admit they were wrong. A group will never admit, “We made a mistake,” because a group that tries to change its mind falls apart. I’m hard pressed to find examples in history of large groups that said, “We thought A, but the answer’s actually B.” Now that is a useful insight. It's a big problem for voluntary associations. Companies can sometimes change their culture, but it usually requires replacin…

After a large organization is structured, it's objective will shift to the survival of the organization itself when the original (legitimate) objective is made irrelevant by internal or external factors ("winning", or a change in the context that required the objective in the first place). I would expect an adage about this to already exist – if it doesn't, I'm claiming it. :)

Can we apply this to Google-sized megacorps, when the original goal 'make money' has been overachieved?

Re: Groups never admit failure

#278

Post by Fnoord »

madaxe_again wrote: post #102
derbOac wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the essay is strongly written — never is a strong word — but it resonated with me because of a personal experience. In that experience part of the problem was that those who disagreed with the group were purged out of the group one way or another, either because they chose to exit out of disgust or because they were driven away, or something in between. So there was a "survivorship bias" in the group, where "…

Indeed - my personal experience of this was at my business - I would admit my and our mistakes to the extent that the perception became that I was the source of all of our failures. My partner was and is a person who is never wrong, never fails, never makes a mistake - it’s always someone else who stymied his ambitions, or circumstance, or just bad luck. Never an error. I left, after a decade. It was partly of my own…

Would you say, in hindsight, that your partner was the wrong fit for you?

Re: Groups never admit failure

#279

Post by coolandsmartrr »

Interesting. Peer pressure is very strong in Japan, and the failure to admit failure is considered one of the reasons why Japan lost WWII[1]. Likewise, there are many failures in Japan today, where organizations in general struggle to point out and correct flaws in executive plans. This usually stems from hierarchy, and junior members of orgs experience pressure to accept initiatives set by their seniors.

[1] At least by a Japanese book called "The Essence of Failure" https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/4122018331

Re: Groups never admit failure

#280

Post by superjan »

kashyapc wrote: post #89
Animats wrote: post #3

A group will never admit they were wrong. A group will never admit, “We made a mistake,” because a group that tries to change its mind falls apart. I’m hard pressed to find examples in history of large groups that said, “We thought A, but the answer’s actually B.” Now that is a useful insight. It's a big problem for voluntary associations. Companies can sometimes change their culture, but it usually requires replacin…

Probably that can be a useful insight in some specific circumstances as you describe, but it falls flat as a generalization. Allow me a snark: maybe a group of venture capitalists (many of whom call themselves "angels") might not admit a mistake. But many groups (not as grandiose as the military, though) jolly well admit and own up non-trivial mistakes. I participate in several open source projects over 13 years now.…

Admitting mistakes is one thing. Admitting that what the organization has set out to do is unachievable is another.
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