Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant • Hacker News Board

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#681

Post by logifail » Thu, Dec 09, 2021, 5:27 AM UTC

timr wrote: post #680

microtherion wrote: post #624

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if the numbers scale up, they'd mean that you'd avoid roughly 1 hospitalization for every 2285 people who got immunity from being infected instead of from being vaccinated. Unfortunately, to obtain that immunity, about 1 in 30 had to be hospitalized, 1 in 250 died, and a significant number suffered serious complications. Nobody in their right mind would choose such a tradeoff.

Nobody here is making this argument. You're setting up a straw man. The point is: people who have recovered from the illness are immune, and should be treated as such.

> people who have recovered from the illness

I'm not sure the guy on the street is actually interested in properly understanding the risks associated with Covid.

My neighbour is in his 70s, he had Covid in November 2020 and (in his words) he wasn't particularly poorly with it. He subsequently had his vaccinations.

He and a couple of friends have been having blood tests to check on antibody titres. His antibodies are still really high, his friends (who haven't had Covid) have antibodies which have dropped significantly since they were vaccinated. He told me he wasn't sure why.

We were talking out on the street, my kids were out and around on their bikes, he told me he thought it was really important that children (like mine) should get vaccinated in order to keep people like him "safe".

What do you say at that point? I'm honestly not sure where we go from here.

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#682

Post by spurgu » Thu, Dec 09, 2021, 6:08 AM UTC

ethbr0 wrote: post #573

hcurtiss wrote: post #520

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That paper was a meta-study from July of last year based on papers even older, and it's loaded with problems. This paper in the Lancet [1] and this paper in BMJ on Delta [2] both have mortality at significantly lower. World-o-meter has the mortality rate in New York at 0.28%. [3] [1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... (Among RT-PCR-confirmed cases tested by Oct 1, 2020, 342 (2·4%; 95% CI…

You're confusing case fatality rate (detected infection denominator) with infection fatality rate (total population denominator). The study I cited was (broadly) CFR. That Lancet study is (broadly) IFR. If you proactively surveillance test 13.5% of Madurai's population, you're going to get a different class of people in your denominator, and your calculated mortality is going to decrease. The BMJ study is probably th…

> This [0] has SARS-CoV-2 at somewhere between 0.26% and 0.83% IFR. Which for context, is compared to respiratory flu at 0.0088% (estimated total population EMR due to flu) [1]

Isn't this disregarding (or generalizing) the fact that age plays a significant role with SARS-CoV-2? Those numbers are vastly different between, say, teenagers and 60+ year olds.

I don't see many 60+ running around protesting. Mostly it's the 0.01% IFR crowd.

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#683

Post by spurgu » Thu, Dec 09, 2021, 6:13 AM UTC

merrywhether wrote: post #478

jaspax wrote: post #440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. Every time I read a post like the grandparent I move closer to full-blown antivaxx.

Pedantically, basing your stance purely on being tired of being told what to do _isn’t_ an intelligent strategy. Not saying that’s your entire stance, but emotional contrarianism is not a good reason to update your priors.

It doesn't help when that thing you're being told to do is constantly changing, and in addition doesn't seem to change where it matters. It seeds doubt and uncertainty, which is surely what we're seeing all around us. No one knows what to do with Covid. And those who claim they do for certainty are sure as hell full of shit.

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#684

Post by spurgu » Thu, Dec 09, 2021, 6:16 AM UTC

potta_coffee wrote: post #648

edmundsauto wrote: post #609

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except you aren’t going to risk getting very sick (pneumonia) from the vaccinated response. And you aren’t going to give the virus to someone else.

Enjoy your moral superiority, and I'll enjoy not feeling like dog crap for a week after getting the shot.

I find it insane that someone would argue against your personal experience like that.

I've had the feeling all along that once we've started getting people forced into perpetual Covid vaccinations it's gonna move into seasonal influenza vaccines. Judging by this discourse my hunch is not far off.

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#685

Post by spurgu » Thu, Dec 09, 2021, 6:26 AM UTC

rixed wrote: post #674

potta_coffee wrote: post #532

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's my choice not to take shots that make me sick, and no I won't take them again. It's unfortunate that some people have fragile health, but it's not really my problem. No amount of brow-beating will make it my problem. No, I'm not a calloused individual that doesn't care about others. I don't believe that anyone is required to undergo medical procedures in order to benefit me, and I will not undergo medical proced…

Mind you, you sound 100% like someone who do not care about others. But your decision to not take flu shots sounds totally reasonable given you apparently get a bad adverse reaction every time. You therefore belong to that group of people whose health is too weak to get vaccinated, I guess. I hope you won't catch the flu, and will keep getting vaccinated whenever I get the chance since I'm lucky enough that I've neve…

I don't know what high horse bubble you live in, but in my almost 40 years on this planet I've only met one single person who has ever had a flu shot and he's younger than me. Granted I have to live in another kind of bubble. My currently 70+ year old parents and aunt, as well as my 80+ old mother-in-law, have never had a flu shot (until my aunt this winter).

It definitely has nothing to do with "not caring about others". What a malicious human being you seem to be. The vast majority of people just aren't that worried about the flu. It's a natural part of life for most people. For old people and immunocompromised it's relevant, and for them it's obviously their choice to defend against it - and I've started recommending elders in my community to get flu shots (if they want!), even though it only has around 40% efficacy.

Vaccinating kids or young people? Wow. I was sacked for 2 days both with my first and second jab. Next one I'm just gonna let my immune system ride it out. Arrogant people like you convince me.

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#686

Post by spurgu » Thu, Dec 09, 2021, 6:33 AM UTC

stolenmerch wrote: post #146

If I'm reading this correctly, this is "protection against severe disease" and has little to do with transmission. The National Airport Data from Israel seems to suggest "the absolute number of infected individuals in the Vaccinated (boosted) group is likely to be at least as high as in the Unvaccinated" [0] So it seems to me that as long as we all remain obsessed with case numbers and not actual hospitalizations and…

Yeah I stopped looking at case numbers a long time ago. They're completely irrelevant, with the amount of hysteria going around. Hospitalization is the only thing that matters at this point (and in fact has been since the beginning).

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#687

Post by spurgu » Thu, Dec 09, 2021, 6:42 AM UTC

microtherion wrote: post #628

freeflight wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why would you want to control a system with 2-3 weeks of additional lag in your input data when case numbers (a thing that is somewhat easy to measure) correlates so well future deaths? Because case numbers are actually not easy to measure. I'm basing this of my personal experience working in a German healthcare company, we took up testing during the pandemic; All the tests we do are on unvaccinated people. That's…

I'm sure you're right regarding sampling bias, but the vaccinated people I know have not turned off their phone contact tracing alerts, and get tested if they receive a tracing notice.

People get tracing alerts? I've had the apps of three different countries now for some 1.5 years running now and never received even a single blip.

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#688

Post by tim333 » Thu, Dec 09, 2021, 7:21 AM UTC

stolenmerch wrote: post #146

If I'm reading this correctly, this is "protection against severe disease" and has little to do with transmission. The National Airport Data from Israel seems to suggest "the absolute number of infected individuals in the Vaccinated (boosted) group is likely to be at least as high as in the Unvaccinated" [0] So it seems to me that as long as we all remain obsessed with case numbers and not actual hospitalizations and…

Omicron is so infectious it may infect everyone available and die off quite rapidly.

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#689

Post by robbedpeter » Thu, Dec 09, 2021, 7:24 AM UTC

q1w2 wrote: post #556

1cvmask wrote: post #2

This is the scientific meat of the press release where it claims a 25 times neutralizing antibody titers against the Omicron strain with a third dose of Pfizer-BionTech: The sera were collected from subjects 3 weeks after receiving the second dose or one month after receiving the third dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine. Each serum was tested simultaneously for its neutralizing antibody titer against the wi…

This is the meat in the meat... > Neutralization against the Omicron variant after three doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine was comparable to the neutralization against the wild-type strain observed in sera from individuals who received two doses This means that the vaccine is still effective - but very clearly LESS effective than it was against earlier variants. We need UPDATED booster shots each year. Th…

Is there any evidence for covid reinfection?

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#690

Post by tim333 » Thu, Dec 09, 2021, 7:25 AM UTC

roody15 wrote: post #353

Interesting. So far the Omicron variant has shown itself to be mild with minimal hospitalizations and 0 reported deaths worldwide. Is there even a need to vaccinate at all? It would seem this is the variant we would want to spread worldwide and let it take over the more dangerous strains.

Some provisos - it can be non mild in the unvaccinated so it's still worth having a jab even if it doesn't stop you catching it. Also there's a bit of uncertainty - there probably have been some deaths. However I'm optimistic it may spread and replace delta.