Groups never admit failure • Hacker News Board

Re: Groups never admit failure

#141

Post by azinman2 » Wed, Dec 08, 2021, 10:48 PM UTC

renewiltord wrote: post #133

jameslk wrote: post #56

> A group will never admit they were wrong. A group will never admit, “We made a mistake,” because a group that tries to change its mind falls apart. I’m hard pressed to find examples in history of large groups that said, “We thought A, but the answer’s actually B.” Just because the author can't think of an example doesn't make it true. In fact groups of people, typically businesses, admit failure all the time. And i…

If you want to challenge the YC orthodoxy ask if it's worth giving up 7%. I know people who chose to do YC and didn't. And honestly, the YC-attending guys were steered away from the idea that would make them a billion-dollar company. Only when they disregarded the YC advice and moved on could they prosper. EDIT: Sorry, I'm rate-limited here. Yes, I meant that their current valuation is $1+ billion. They abandoned the…

And did they prosper? There's a cosmic sized gap from a billion dollar idea and actually obtaining a billion dollars.

Re: Groups never admit failure

#142

Post by vanadium » Wed, Dec 08, 2021, 10:49 PM UTC

kashyapc wrote: post #89

Animats wrote: post #3

A group will never admit they were wrong. A group will never admit, “We made a mistake,” because a group that tries to change its mind falls apart. I’m hard pressed to find examples in history of large groups that said, “We thought A, but the answer’s actually B.” Now that is a useful insight. It's a big problem for voluntary associations. Companies can sometimes change their culture, but it usually requires replacin…

Probably that can be a useful insight in some specific circumstances as you describe, but it falls flat as a generalization. Allow me a snark: maybe a group of venture capitalists (many of whom call themselves "angels") might not admit a mistake. But many groups (not as grandiose as the military, though) jolly well admit and own up non-trivial mistakes. I participate in several open source projects over 13 years now.…

I think what separates the two camps is a positive incentive to admit failure, which is where the rarity comes in, as highlighted by other posters. If the group's incentive is integrity and trust, or loyalty and retention, it makes sense as there's a capital (political, monetary, etc.) incentive in doing so.

That's where I think the insight cleanly falls apart and yet holds up pretty well for the vast majority of situations. Rarely are groups actually positively incentivized to admit failure, and therefore they do not, as a cohesive unit, actually admit failure as there's a greater incentive not to, barring force.

Re: Groups never admit failure

#143

Post by azinman2 » Wed, Dec 08, 2021, 10:51 PM UTC

jameslk wrote: post #56

> A group will never admit they were wrong. A group will never admit, “We made a mistake,” because a group that tries to change its mind falls apart. I’m hard pressed to find examples in history of large groups that said, “We thought A, but the answer’s actually B.” Just because the author can't think of an example doesn't make it true. In fact groups of people, typically businesses, admit failure all the time. And i…

Without it the blog post is less interesting. Having listened to Naval on Clubhouse he's extremely confident in everything he says (/said on Clubhouse, which was largely political/covid/government/society/extremely broad categories). For people to find you interesting, unfortunately you usually need to project such confidence even if it's not technically true.

Re: Groups never admit failure

#144

Post by whatshisface » Wed, Dec 08, 2021, 10:52 PM UTC

jjoonathan wrote: post #64

lumost wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An important corollary is that if you mistakenly attempt to rationally evaluate a program when everyone expects backslapping... then it's going to come across as a declaration of abject failure. When stakeholders expect victory to look rosy, and instead it looks balanced then they'll believe something went wrong.

I accidentally killed a very promising project this way. I gave a pitch demonstrating how it could stand up brilliantly to multiple avenues of ruthless investigation and criticism. People didn't listen to the words, they listened to the emotion of the ruthless investigation, and they discarded the idea in favor of one which would have tipped over if someone had brought a similar magnifying glass to within a mile. Onc…

It's a very painful moment in everyone's career when they realize that, no, they're not the only one that has noticed that powerpoints are usually full of fluff, and no, they're not going to get anywhere by changing that, because yes, they got that way for a reason.

Re: Groups never admit failure

#145

Post by varjag » Wed, Dec 08, 2021, 10:52 PM UTC

valec wrote: post #116

Animats wrote: post #3

A group will never admit they were wrong. A group will never admit, “We made a mistake,” because a group that tries to change its mind falls apart. I’m hard pressed to find examples in history of large groups that said, “We thought A, but the answer’s actually B.” Now that is a useful insight. It's a big problem for voluntary associations. Companies can sometimes change their culture, but it usually requires replacin…

the A-10 is actually the perfect "fighter mafia" plane aside from its weight. the fighter mafia basically wanted more maneuverability, cheaper planes and CAS than interdiction bombing. A-10 is all of those except light. they were vehemently opposed to optimizing planes for beyond visual range (BVR) combat like by improving sensors or stealth because they considered it "a fantasy." problem is missiles fired 100 miles…

The only reason A-10 is still flying is gun fetishism of certain senators.

Re: Groups never admit failure

#146

Post by dsizzle » Wed, Dec 08, 2021, 11:00 PM UTC

dredmorbius wrote: post #103

lodi wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The principle claim of this essay is that groups never change their viewpoints. Actually the principal claim is that "a group will never admit they were wrong." I think I agree with both claims.

The general domain is group conflict and change. There's a literature on that. Naval's failed to acknowledge its existence, let alone consult it. https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=7,39&qsp=2&q... Changing a change of mind is a subset of admitting error. Naval's claim is an absolute ("never"), and a single counterexample serves as a sufficient disproof. I've provided multiple.

Corollary: Naval never admits failure?

Re: Groups never admit failure

#147

Post by femiagbabiaka » Wed, Dec 08, 2021, 11:03 PM UTC

irchans wrote: post #94

femiagbabiaka wrote: post #65

there are a lot of funny passages in here, but this one really made me laugh: > If you want to change the world to a better place, the best way to do it is a for-profit because for-profits have to take feedback from reality. Ironically, for-profit entities are more sustainable than non-profit entities. They’re self-sustainable. You’re not out there with a begging bowl all the time. Tech, finance, and the automotive i…

It's interesting to me that you include the Tech industry. I am familiar with bailouts for the auto and financial industry. In what way is the Tech industry "insulated from feedback"?

Venture capital is at its core a vehicle to shield businesses while they’re figuring out PMF — aka, figuring out how to turn ideas into money. At the scale that it operates at today it’s barely distinguishable from bailouts — I’m thinking of examples like Uber and WeWork.

Re: Groups never admit failure

#148

Post by WalterBright » Wed, Dec 08, 2021, 11:06 PM UTC

kashyapc wrote: post #89

Animats wrote: post #3

A group will never admit they were wrong. A group will never admit, “We made a mistake,” because a group that tries to change its mind falls apart. I’m hard pressed to find examples in history of large groups that said, “We thought A, but the answer’s actually B.” Now that is a useful insight. It's a big problem for voluntary associations. Companies can sometimes change their culture, but it usually requires replacin…

Probably that can be a useful insight in some specific circumstances as you describe, but it falls flat as a generalization. Allow me a snark: maybe a group of venture capitalists (many of whom call themselves "angels") might not admit a mistake. But many groups (not as grandiose as the military, though) jolly well admit and own up non-trivial mistakes. I participate in several open source projects over 13 years now.…

I have yet to make a mistake, but when I do I plan on publicly admitting it.

Re: Groups never admit failure

#149

Post by papaver-somnamb » Wed, Dec 08, 2021, 11:08 PM UTC

This is one reason why at the time of group formation I ask that one person be responsible for delivering the desired outcome of the group. By election, by appointment, whatever the circumstances may call for. And, as I learned the hard way, that responsibility needs to be coupled with and balanced by a suitable degree of authority.

Re: Groups never admit failure

#150

Post by dredmorbius » Wed, Dec 08, 2021, 11:10 PM UTC

dsizzle wrote: post #146

dredmorbius wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The general domain is group conflict and change. There's a literature on that. Naval's failed to acknowledge its existence, let alone consult it. https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=7,39&qsp=2&q... Changing a change of mind is a subset of admitting error. Naval's claim is an absolute ("never"), and a single counterexample serves as a sufficient disproof. I've provided multiple.

Corollary: Naval never admits failure?

It's interesting to contemplate instances in which businesses or industries refuse to do so.

Tobacco, oil, asbestos, lead, pharmaceutical (e.g., Sacklers), coal, gaming, alcohol, dioxins, plastics generally, advertising, adtech, sugar, firearms, trans-fats. That whole slave-trade thing.