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Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

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Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#591

Interesting. So far the Omicron variant has shown itself to be mild with minimal hospitalizations and 0 reported deaths worldwide. Is there even a need to vaccinate at all? It would seem this is the variant we would want to spread worldwide and let it take over the more dangerous strains.

I think you mean a need to vaccinate against it specifically, but to be clear, we DO need to vaccinate to prevent serious hospitalization.

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#592
post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a weird way to phrase your second paragraph, considering hospitals have been close to full very recently in parts of the us. https://protect-public.hhs.gov/pages/hospital-utilization

Hospitals are not designed to be empty, though. So you can’t just point to 80% full ICU beds and say a hospital is overwhelmed. Is there any data showing ICU beds filled above carrying capacity? Or number of patients transferred to a different hospital due to bed shortage?

In Germany wr have evacuatiom flights from Bavaria to Hamburg for example. We had that early in the pandemic from France and Italy to Germany. So yes, there are numbers for sure somewhere.

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#593
post #441

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I got the flu when I was in my late 20s. Up until that point, in common I suspect with most teens and twenty-somethings, I had thought myself pretty much indestructible, so would never have even thought about getting a flu vaccine - I thought that was only for the old and vulnerable. However, since that experience, I try and get one every year - even if you are young and healthy it can be pretty rough, and why risk h…

> about whether catching something gives you better protection than having a vaccine It's also medically incorrect. When you get a vaccine you are literally getting a live virus injected into you. There's no difference for your immune system. One isn't "fake" and the other "natural". Period. To your point, viruses mutate and so similar to the flu and flu vaccine, if COVID-19 continues to mutate in ways that are diffe…

> When you get a vaccine you are literally getting a live virus injected into you.

This is false for the mRNA vaccines according to the CDC:

mRNA vaccines do not use the live virus that causes COVID-19 and cannot cause infection with the virus that causes COVID-19 or other viruses.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/different...

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#594
post #579

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The linked article both describes the mechanism and has plenty of recent references observing and studying the effect whether or not you think it makes sense. The general mechanism is that recognition of the antigen by memory B cells produces a response that also inhibits (non-memory) B cells from reacting to the antigen. So when the antigen has drifted enough that memory B cells still recognize it, but the antibodie…

Eventually you clear the infection in most cases. How do you think that happens?

It happens the same way. This is just talking about rates. When naive B cells see that existing antibodies are already present on the virus they take that as a signal that memory B cells already exist and the search for new antibodies is called off. So there's a balance between the quantity of virus, how quickly the virus replicates, quantity of antibodies, how well the antibodies bind to the virus, and how many bound antibodies are needed on a virus to suppress the naive B cell response. Basically, if binding becomes less efficient you'd expect the viral load to have to get higher before naive B cells get significantly involved. And in fact the infection may just be cleared without involving naive B cells, but just take a bit longer. It seems unlikely that would be worse than not being vaccinated, but I'm sure the devils are in the details of all these factors.

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#595
post #580

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No there is not strong evidence. The Israeli study highlighted previous infection versus vaccinated but not (yet) infected. Note the "previously infected" category did not exclude the vaccinated, but the vaccinated category did exclude the previously infected. The only solid conclusion to make from that is: that even if you have been previously infected, get a vaccine.

> The Israeli study highlighted previous infection versus vaccinated Yes, they did this, and showed that natural infection was superior to vaccination alone. > but not (yet) infected. Incorrect. > Note the "previously infected" category did not exclude the vaccinated, but the vaccinated category did exclude the previously infected. No. You only have to read the link to see that your understanding of the study is enti…

Okay. I admit that my characterization was sloppy/incorrect. Thank you for pointing that out. The paper is still not strong evidence though. To whit:

"the higher hospitalization rate in the 32,000-person analysis was based on just eight hospitalizations in a vaccinated group and one in a previously infected group. And the 13-fold increased risk of infection in the same analysis was based on just 238 infections in the vaccinated population, less than 1.5% of the more than 16,000 people, versus 19 reinfections among a similar number of people who once had SARS-CoV-2."

These numbers are very small for distinguishing between the effectiveness of two different and effective immunization methods (natural and vaccine). By now, we should have more data to support if the effect size is that strong. Do we?

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#596

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> Omicron deaths are still at zero Omicron hasn't been around long enough to expect many deaths yet. Even the optimists need to wait a few more weeks.

Plenty of evidence that Omicron has been around for a substantial period of time. I believe the lower bound is at least a month in the US and Europe at this point, presumably longer at the point of origin.

technically you are right. However delta is dominate and we don't sequence most tests so we don't really have any data to work with.

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#597

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not the same. They are not giving advice or recommendations, they are reporting the results of a study. That's the beauty of a good scientific study: you do not have to trust the author. In fact don't, the more people try to find errors the better.

General Mills had studies showing sugary cereals are a part of a healthy diet.

Did they publish the study under their own name, being up front about their conflict of interest, or did they pay someone else for the study (and desired outcome)?

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#598

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Though in this case I suspect more was better. At least that’s my hypothesis for why moderna vaccine immunity held up better against delta than Pfizer

Moderna had more time between doses too.

3 Pfizers is basically 1 moderna...

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#599

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> The vaccine hasn't stopped spread in rich countries, why would it do so in poor countries? It has greatly slowed the spread. The highest vaccinated countries have almost stopped it. There is every reason to believe that high vaccination across the world would stop covid, and anything less will ensure continued spread (and mutations). People demanding an all or nothing from a vaccine are missing the big picture.

The highest vaccinated countries have almost stopped it? Israel had among the highest vaccination rates in the world prior to its most recent peak, which has now declined. Other countries are going through the same thing. There is only a very rough/weak correlation between vaccination rate and positive cases.

Isreal hasn't been among the highest vaccinated countries in quite a while. They got over 50% early, but stalled out. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations (Isreal isn't selected by default) Check out countries like Portugal if you want to see what high vaccination does.

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#600
post #526

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How much of your comfort in these drugs is based on who is holding power wherever you may reside? I don't really know what you are talking about with the murder analogy. Obviously the uncomfortable issue at play here is the duality of: Your right to swing your arms ends at my face or whatever. Who's doing what to who here? Are you punching me with the mandate or am I punching you with my hypothetical infection and hy…

> How much of your comfort in these drugs is based on who is holding power wherever you may reside? Literally zero. I know enough about science and economics to know that the US president has no bearing on the efficacy of the COVID vaccine whatsoever, just like politicians have exactly zero bearing on how well the flu vaccine works or how well Ibuprofen works. > Your right to swing your arms ends at my face or whatev…

Oh you mean the Americans who think they have a 15-25% chance of dying from Covid if they get it? I wouldn't trust the majority to be well-informed.

https://covid19pulse.usc.edu/ (granted the numbers have been going down recently, but it still illustrates the hysteria quite well)

And I also wouldn't trust big pharma to have my best interest in mind.

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