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Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

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Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#311

Post by sAbakumoff »

stolenmerch wrote: post #146

If I'm reading this correctly, this is "protection against severe disease" and has little to do with transmission. The National Airport Data from Israel seems to suggest "the absolute number of infected individuals in the Vaccinated (boosted) group is likely to be at least as high as in the Unvaccinated" [0] So it seems to me that as long as we all remain obsessed with case numbers and not actual hospitalizations and…

The Netherlands assess the "risk level" based on hospital admissions and ICU admissions: https://coronadashboard.government.nl/over-risiconiveaus

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#312

Post by hef19898 »

detaro wrote: post #234
hef19898 wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who has quite some experience in running operations based on data, numbers and metrics the German approach to COVID on that front alone really puzzled me from the beginning. First the incidence of 50 that they pulled out of their ass for contact tracing, which was ignored basically the next day. Then the fact that resources weren't really increased to improve contract traceability. Then the decision to use…

Yes, it's been really frustrating to see RKI predict this for weeks and just ... nothing happening. And then you still get headlines of "incidence fell slightly!" - from 392,4 to 392,2 (or sth like that), when testing labs are hitting capacity. We somehow lucked into a relatively good first wave and ever since then... so much unnecessary mess.

The drop in incidence is the same BS when reporting in DAX or S&P moving by 0.2 % day-to-day. That's noice, no signal.

EDIT: That's also noise for HF traders, because day-to-day numbers are pointless when you worry about milliseconds.

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#313

Post by seoaeu »

Thiez wrote: post #252
snovv_crash wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, it was effective as promised against the strains it was marketed as effective against. Those strains have been effectively eradicated. The issue is Delta, and now Omicron, which developed after the vaccine was designed.

They also said the vaccine targeted the spike protein, which was said to be very unlikely to mutate since it's such a vital part of the virus and there is little room for variation.

Unlikely to mutate much. The vaccine still remains effective because the new variants still have very similar spike proteins

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#314

Post by pseudalopex »

phkahler wrote: post #265
hamburglar1 wrote: post #239

Is there a comprehensive white-paper anywhere with sample sizes and error bars? Otherwise this seems like an anecdote. "The sera were collected from subjects 3 weeks after receiving the second dose or one month after receiving the third dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine" How do we know this study isn't just measuring the effect of that additional week? Also how many subjects was this sera pulled from? Are…

>> Is there a comprehensive white-paper anywhere with sample sizes and error bars? Otherwise this seems like an anecdote. It's marketing. When the vaccine effectiveness is waning the solution seems to be more of it If it only took 2 days to create the vaccine, why do they not have an updated one? Is there another in development that targets more than just the spike protein? Why is the entire defense that vaccine?

> When the vaccine effectiveness is waning the solution seems to be more of it

Yes. That's the definition of a booster.

> If it only took 2 days to create the vaccine, why do they not have an updated one?

The article said they started clinical trials with a delta vaccine. But they found the original vaccine was effective.

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#315

Post by Spare_account »

nahqz wrote: post #238
mentat wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Remain obsessed" with transmission of a highly contagious virus that has shown significant ability to mutate at scale? That sure seems worth being obsessed about. When it mutates to spread past all current defenses then consistently kill because we failed to stop current spread it will indeed be "depressing".

There is absolutely no way to stop the spread forever. Just suggesting it is crazy. It is an option you have to forget about. Stalling the spread is useless as well - we have already had two major mutations in less than two years.

>we have already had two major mutations in less than two years.

How frequently do equivalent Flu mutations occur?

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#316

Post by hef19898 »

iSnow wrote: post #240
hef19898 wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who has quite some experience in running operations based on data, numbers and metrics the German approach to COVID on that front alone really puzzled me from the beginning. First the incidence of 50 that they pulled out of their ass for contact tracing, which was ignored basically the next day. Then the fact that resources weren't really increased to improve contract traceability. Then the decision to use…

German government staff is as un-digital as you can get. They have no idea how a small modeling group would have helped. Maybe the incoming government will do better, but I am not holding my breath.

It's not modelling, just having a basic understanding of your metrics and the ability to choose the right ones. German officials showed none of that. Well, I'm not holding my breath on that neither.

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#317

Post by nahqz »

Spare_account wrote: post #315
nahqz wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is absolutely no way to stop the spread forever. Just suggesting it is crazy. It is an option you have to forget about. Stalling the spread is useless as well - we have already had two major mutations in less than two years.

>we have already had two major mutations in less than two years. How frequently do equivalent Flu mutations occur?

More or less at the same rate which is why stalling the virus is useless.

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#318

Post by 4ggr0 »

detaro wrote: post #79
eckmLJE wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Untrue, I believe you need a certain amount of karma to be able to flag.

But it's something like 20 or 25, so really trivial to hit for any genuine user. (Although it's possible there is some weighting going on, so maybe new accounts get less flagging power or something like that)

Nope, I have 213 karma and the only thing I can do is upvote comments.

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#319

Post by tremon »

gentleman11 wrote: post #302
yvdriess wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not the same. They are not giving advice or recommendations, they are reporting the results of a study. That's the beauty of a good scientific study: you do not have to trust the author. In fact don't, the more people try to find errors the better.

Part of being a good scientific study is having unbiased experimental scientists run the study with no conflicts of interest. The pressure on that team will be incredible

No, part of being a good scientific study is being upfront about any (even potential) conflicts of interest. Most studies aren't interest-free, do you think e.g. CERN doesn't have a vested interest when it publishes studies about the LHC experiments?

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#320

Post by TechBro8615 »

invalidusernam3 wrote: post #222
soared wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a weird way to phrase your second paragraph, considering hospitals have been close to full very recently in parts of the us. https://protect-public.hhs.gov/pages/hospital-utilization

Sure, but I'm willing to bet most of the hospitalised are not vaccinated, or at least a disproportionate amount of them aren't vaccinated

How much are you willing to bet? Keep in mind that if the population is 90% vaccinated, you expect something approaching 90% of ICU beds to be vaccinated (well, with an effective and sterilizing vaccine you wouldn’t expect this, but that’s not where we are).

In England last month, 79% of Covid deaths were vaccinated. Currently about 36% of hospitalizations are unvaccinated.

The raw data is here, good luck parsing anything useful out of it: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

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