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RIP Higgs Boson (with 95% confidence)

blogs.scientificamerican.com

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Re: RIP Higgs Boson (with 95% confidence)

#21

Post by jamesaguilar »

icarus_drowning wrote: post #15
jamesaguilar wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Europe explored the universe where America did not. What did they get out of it? (Honest question.) Also, supposing the Higg's Boson did exist and this experiment found it, how much benefit would the average European derived? How much less benefit would people from other countries enjoy?

This is, I think, a dishonest question, because we can't know "what they [got] out of it". There is a 5% probability that they might "get something out of it" in the future, and an unknown (likely greater than zero) probability that they will "get" a great deal out of it through readjustments of previously invincible models of how the universe is constructed. Remember, we're trying to figure out why things have mass…

> we can't know "what they [got] out of it"

Of course not. Only when this is ancient history will we truly know the results of the experiment in a practical sense. But we can hazard guesses, and if we are informed (which I am not) those guesses have some chance of being right. Anyway, your consequent doesn't follow: an inability to know the concrete answer to any given question does not make the question dishonest.

> which, I think, is rather prima facia a very important question to answer

Important for what purpose? Human happiness? Some concrete goal of technology or economics? The abstract advancement of knowledge? Some mix of all of these things?

I agree that it would be nice to know where mass comes from, but that fact absent any useful application (or a probability of a useful application) is of limited value to me.

> that will most likely prove to be invaluable in and of itself

It is hard for me to believe that the data itself will be something anyone would be willing to pay money for. Do you mean invaluable in some other sense?

Re: RIP Higgs Boson (with 95% confidence)

#22

Post by zzzmarcus »

teraflop wrote: post #12
nazgulnarsil wrote: post #5

I should place a long bet regarding dark matter...

The Higgs boson has essentially nothing to with dark matter, as far as we know. In fact, they're not even in the same category: the Higgs boson is a theoretical prediction that has yet to be observed (or conclusively ruled out), whereas dark matter is a real, observable thing in the cosmos that we don't yet have a theory to explain.

Dark matter has not been observed, hence the name. We know something is there, but we don't know what is is and we have not seen it.

Re: RIP Higgs Boson (with 95% confidence)

#23

Post by [deleted] »

robryan wrote: post #14
jamesaguilar wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Europe explored the universe where America did not. What did they get out of it? (Honest question.) Also, supposing the Higg's Boson did exist and this experiment found it, how much benefit would the average European derived? How much less benefit would people from other countries enjoy?

I think it's far to early to start talking about the LHC's value in a past tense.

[deleted]

Re: RIP Higgs Boson (with 95% confidence)

#24

Post by icarus_drowning »

jamesaguilar wrote: post #21
icarus_drowning wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is, I think, a dishonest question, because we can't know "what they [got] out of it". There is a 5% probability that they might "get something out of it" in the future, and an unknown (likely greater than zero) probability that they will "get" a great deal out of it through readjustments of previously invincible models of how the universe is constructed. Remember, we're trying to figure out why things have mass…

> we can't know "what they [got] out of it" Of course not. Only when this is ancient history will we truly know the results of the experiment in a practical sense. But we can hazard guesses, and if we are informed (which I am not) those guesses have some chance of being right. Anyway, your consequent doesn't follow: an inability to know the concrete answer to any given question does not make the question dishonest. >…

I agree that it would be nice to know where mass comes from, but that fact absent any useful application (or a probability of a useful application) is of limited value to me.

I guess if you don't see potential applications of understanding where mass comes from, we're at a bit of an impasse here. It is difficult (if not impossible) to make predictions about what the discovery will bring, but the mere possibility that this research could or might lead to the ability to manipulate mass seems rather valuable to me, in many concrete ways.

[UPDATE:

I guess if you want to see this as a gamble, you need to take into account the very good track record of abstract scientific discovery leading to enormous benefits. Given that understanding electricity, magnetism, relativity, and countless other scientific discoveries have brought incalculable value to the human race, I guess I don't understand why one wouldn't believe that science was worth the gamble.]

Re: RIP Higgs Boson (with 95% confidence)

#25

Post by patrickyeon »

jamesaguilar wrote: post #7
indrax wrote: post #2

>to spend billions of taxpayer dollars in search of a particle that likely does not exist would have been wasteful This is infuriating. A negative result is a successful experiment. Don't hamper efforts to fund science with the argument that science might figure out it was wrong. Europe explored the universe where America did not.

> Europe explored the universe where America did not. What did they get out of it? (Honest question.) Also, supposing the Higg's Boson did exist and this experiment found it, how much benefit would the average European derived? How much less benefit would people from other countries enjoy?

There are a number of replies telling you that a better understanding of physics is what we get out of this. I completely agree, but that argument won't convince everybody.

I don't have numbers at hand, but a large amount of the data the detectors spew out is un-necessary, and needs to be sorted quickly (think real-time or very nearly), so that the back end computing resources can actually keep up with storing it. There is a huge grid infrastructure (data transfer and compute resources) dedicated to the LHC. The problems the scientists and engineers had to solve to get the LHC running will come up in some shape down the road, and we'll benefit from this.

We can list off a whole lot of advances that were made for pure science that are ridiculously useful for us today (spectroscopy, lasers, atomic clocks, nuclear reactors, even particle accelerators, off the top of my head). We may also wish to keep in mind that solving the infrastructure problems scientists face also gives society great payoffs.

Re: RIP Higgs Boson (with 95% confidence)

#26

Post by jamesaguilar »

henrikschroder wrote: post #19
lucasjung wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. The question isn't, "Did this experiment advance scientific knowledge," the question is, "Was this a prudent and appropriate use of tax money, especially in light of the enormous opportunity costs inherent in any expenditure of tax money?"

That is ridiculous, ROI is relevant if you're talking about applied research where you have a short-term goal and can make the calculation. But the LHC is basic research, you can't do ROI calculations on that. Instead, you dump as much money as you can into it, and then you know that decades down the line, you'll be very happy that you did it.

> and then you know that decades down the line, you'll be very happy that you did it.

How do you know that? Has all blue sky research in history resulted in massive benefits decades down the line?

Re: RIP Higgs Boson (with 95% confidence)

#27

Post by jamesaguilar »

icarus_drowning wrote: post #24
jamesaguilar wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we can't know "what they [got] out of it" Of course not. Only when this is ancient history will we truly know the results of the experiment in a practical sense. But we can hazard guesses, and if we are informed (which I am not) those guesses have some chance of being right. Anyway, your consequent doesn't follow: an inability to know the concrete answer to any given question does not make the question dishonest. >…

I agree that it would be nice to know where mass comes from, but that fact absent any useful application (or a probability of a useful application) is of limited value to me. I guess if you don't see potential applications of understanding where mass comes from, we're at a bit of an impasse here. It is difficult (if not impossible) to make predictions about what the discovery will bring, but the mere possibility that…

> . . . we're at a bit of an impasse here.

Only because I don't know the science behind it. I asked the question to be informed. Everyone is so busy trying to show that I am wrong to ask the question that no one has taken time to answer it.

What potential applications are there of knowing where mass comes from in the level of detail we are speaking about here (i.e. the proof of the SM or the suggestion of one of the Higgless theories)? Of course, you could give me science fiction, but I'm hoping for applications that are likely.

RE: your update, excellent, and I agree, although people were able to make predictions about technologies arising from much of the abstract research of the past long before it became practical. I am asking for such predictions, if they exist, or confirmation that no such predictions currently exist. I have not been able to find any in all my searchings, but perhaps I am looking in the wrong places.

Re: RIP Higgs Boson (with 95% confidence)

#28

Post by D_Alex »

lucasjung wrote: post #10
jamesaguilar wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Europe explored the universe where America did not. What did they get out of it? (Honest question.) Also, supposing the Higg's Boson did exist and this experiment found it, how much benefit would the average European derived? How much less benefit would people from other countries enjoy?

Indeed. The question isn't, "Did this experiment advance scientific knowledge," the question is, "Was this a prudent and appropriate use of tax money, especially in light of the enormous opportunity costs inherent in any expenditure of tax money?"

Yes, yes, good question.

People who make the decisions to spend money on this scale - US$ 9 billion! - must be well qualified to make such decisions, and do so after careful consideration of various alternatives.

I think it was the right decision. Of course opportunity cost must be considered - you could have had, instead: 1 new Nimitz class aircraft carrier (without the air wing), OR 4 new B-2 bombers OR 1 extra week of Bush tax cuts....

Re: RIP Higgs Boson (with 95% confidence)

#29

Post by wtallis »

jamesaguilar wrote: post #18
fragsworth wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Suppose they got absolutely nothing out of it. This shouldn't matter. You cannot easily predict what rewards will come as a result of cutting-edge scientific research. It's a gamble. However, due to all the technologies we have right now as a result of expensive government spending on research, the general consensus is (or at least should be) that the benefits FAR outweigh the costs.

> It's a gamble. Even gambles have odds. And, to me at least, it does matter if we get something valuable out of our tax dollars. Don't get me wrong, I'm not some slobbering hard-line libertarian who believes that any experiment with a negative result is wasted money. On the other hand, if the odds are that a positive or negative result is nowhere likely to benefit the public in a concrete manner (either directly or…

If you could know the odds or expected payoff in advance, then it wouldn't be cutting-edge science anymore. It would be engineering.

You can't make valid predictions about the expected benefit of any single experiment before running it for the first time. All we have to go on is the history of major scientific undertakings, and the technologies they have eventually lead to.

That history primarily shows two things: sustained serious scientific research correlates with technological advances and breakthroughs, and governments are usually the only ones willing and able to throw large amounts of cash at a project for a long time before the results start coming in or making money.

Re: RIP Higgs Boson (with 95% confidence)

#30

Post by SoftwareMaven »

zzzmarcus wrote: post #22
teraflop wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Higgs boson has essentially nothing to with dark matter, as far as we know. In fact, they're not even in the same category: the Higgs boson is a theoretical prediction that has yet to be observed (or conclusively ruled out), whereas dark matter is a real, observable thing in the cosmos that we don't yet have a theory to explain.

Dark matter has not been observed, hence the name. We know something is there, but we don't know what is is and we have not seen it.

Its gravitational effects have been observed, that is how we know it is there. Nobody has seen it, but little in the sky is actually accessible via visible wavelengths.
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