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100 years of whatever this will be

apenwarr.ca

731–740 of 924 posts

Re: 100 years of whatever this will be

#731

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't know how you are going to be productive without consensus. At the risk of pedantry (but in this case I think warranted): consensus literally means every single person agrees. This is as opposed to something like democratic rule, where rules can be made and enforced even if not every single person involved agrees. I think OP is using the precise (non-colloquial) definition of "consensus" and rightly points o…

You can certainly get a small room of people to agree on what's good for lunch, if the premise is that there's no lunch at all until they agree on what to have. There will be some compromising involved, so not everybody might get the dish that is their first choice, but the more important thing is that nobody gets something that they hate . That aside, consensus always has a particular domain of applicability, and by…

A solution is cultural:

Invite people to abandon their preferences and then organize those people so they show the world how many more needs it meets than not doing it. In particular, abandoning preferences allows the need for not to get met more easily.

Re: 100 years of whatever this will be

#732

* Everyone seems to increasingly be in it for themselves I was fortunate to have had a career with mild autonomy to help other team members even if it was slightly out of my job description. But this only happens in a shared office environment where you can see when someone is falling behind or overhear a problem. That physical presence also creates a bond with co-workers that's often more powerful than the corporate…

I know. I'm mixed on this, but isn't it ultimate work-life separation?

Getting a little sci-fi here, but imagine not even knowing the names of your coworkers, project, manager, or even employer in the future; the system is so well-designed that you just have to do the little mission and there are communication channels minimally restricted to just the questions you'd have. Once such a system got up and running it would be the closest thing to a genuine "AI" or rather the more general case of an emergent intelligence; emergent since none of the actors are directly cooperating with the other actors, and hypothetically such a system could independently evolve and evolve with nobody at the steering wheel.

For an example of a compartmentalized operation, see CIA, NSA. I'm not saying these organizations are anything like what I described above. Just examples of highly compartmentalized work systems.

Anyways, just got me thinking ;)

Re: 100 years of whatever this will be

#733

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get where defi is coming from, and the regulations are onerous, but also those regulations were hard-fought for, and came about on the backs of real problems for real people, often by being exploited by people most accurately described as conmen. Caveat emptor, sure, but on the way from "investing your play money" to someone close to retirement's 401k, there's a much bigger pitfall. The "battles" are shaping up to…

Folks very quickly forget that regulations are written in blood. You know what other kinds of regulations are onerous? Everything aviation related. Every corner of aviation. And yet we're not clamoring to deregulate aviation because the consequences are so clear and self-evident. Regulations are generally there for a reason. If they aren't, they need to be amended, we don't need to make our own money, except for blac…

Not all regulations are written in blood, and not all regulations have their intended effect.

Aviation is a great example of this. Yes aviation in most of the developed world continues to be extremely safe and the regulations are largely written in blood, off the backs of many failed aviation experiments. But regulations _are_ stifling aircraft design and the FAA is trying to desperately figure out how to not calcify the industry without endangering people. Anything but your largest passenger movers are all either from the 1960s or just reruns of these '60s designs. Despite huge advances in sensor fidelity, reliability, and electronics process changes, the cost to certify a new aircraft design is so high that most aircraft makers don't bother and just coast on old designs that have already been approved and are mostly just grandfathered in designs. It's taking decades for leaded aviation fuel to be phased out because of the difficulty in iterating on engine designs due to above regulations. We could have been much farther along in aircraft energy efficiency, maybe even electrification, if these regulations weren't as onerous. (One could even make a case, though probably unsubstantiated, that had regulations not had this impact that aviation would be cleaner and would lead to lower pollution-based mortality, so a regulation that's _ensuring_ blood.) Experimental aviation and sport aviation regulations in the US are a direct response to this slowdown in innovation and I hope they pave the way for more lightweight regulatory out-valves in aviation.

Ham radio is another great example of a medium that is dying due to regulations. There's large restrictions on digital modes and encryption on multiple ham bands. Because of the internet then, Ham doesn't really offer anyone anything that they can't do on the internet, so most people these days just don't care. The regulations themselves are in place to make sure the spectrum allocated to amateurs isn't abused; allow encryption and commercial vendors will use Ham bands for their own private operations, and allowing too many digital modes could (but doesn't necessarily) increase the noise floor. That doesn't mean that regulation doesn't have a strangling effect on the medium as a whole.

It's important to remember that as technology improves, regulations may have to be rethought. I'm fully onboard with the idea that regulations need to work hand-in-hand with the market to produce desirable outcomes, but to deify regulations like this is much too coarse a filter for a complicated, nuanced issue like finance. It provides a nice fight with clearly delineated sides when you pit "regulation good" people against "regulation bad" people, but the truth is that regulations are complicated and IMO should be reevaluated in the face of change.

Re: 100 years of whatever this will be

#734
post #730

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Folks very quickly forget that regulations are written in blood. You know what other kinds of regulations are onerous? Everything aviation related. Every corner of aviation. And yet we're not clamoring to deregulate aviation because the consequences are so clear and self-evident. Regulations are generally there for a reason. If they aren't, they need to be amended, we don't need to make our own money, except for blac…

These people likely do not know of the lives destroyed by the wildcat banking era of the mid-1800's in the United States, which is what DeFi seems to become. People don't think of the failing power of international sanctions. The consequences of a fully de-regulated financial system will likely lead to more armed conflicts. That said, I agree that the political system is broken, but that's a problem of democracy. htt…

The historical consensus behind this idea is not there. Here's [1] a good example of some scholarly dissent. I'm pretty sure the truth is more complicated than advocates of the "Wildcat Banks evil" idea keep parroting.

[1]: https://www.alt-m.org/2021/07/06/the-fable-of-the-cats/

Re: 100 years of whatever this will be

#735

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would decentralized finance affect the advertising driven business model of web applications?

Micropayments have been suggested since Internet was young, but now that's available on top of the right cryptocurrent (eg SOL). Whether that's actually a model people want (vs saying they want) remains to be seen, but Substack seems to be doing well enough for their writers. 3 cents from each of 100,000 likes on Twitter/Insta/tt starts to add up for those with a large enough following to make several of those a mont…

How many people even say they want micropayments? It seems like a relatively niche position even in my circles — most people seem relatively happy with the idea that their monthly costs are fixed and they don't need to think about how much it'll cost to open a link.

The proposed web3 model seems far more likely to be like those abusive micro-payment games with constant prompts to pay for something, with a page's worth of content moved behind successive paywalls since publishers aren't going to switch to a system which pays even less and you'd need to ask permission before charging someone.

This also adds problems with people who don't have money or aren't allowed to spend it (children, elderly, etc.) or the same scandals when those people are taken advantage of, not to mention the privacy impacts of effectively creating a super-cookie which can be used to track people all over the web.

Re: 100 years of whatever this will be

#737

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This happened with cable TV too. You pay for the TV already, as a subscription even, why do you also get Ads? Drives me batshit that amazon does this on Prime. Play the fucking film you bastards

Too bad we can't just fork a copy without ads and use that instead.

The reason you can't fork it is because the copyright owner wants to maintain control. That means that the content will never be on a blockchain even if we see the 8+ orders of magnitude efficiency improvements which would be needed to do so and when you've built the systems which would be necessary to hold and authorize access you don't get anything except expense and support burden from a blockchain.

Re: 100 years of whatever this will be

#738
post #63

For everyone reading this article who agrees with it, I would encourage you to start reading some history, especially ancient history, late 1800s history, and the history of colonialism. Society, once you look at inputs and outputs, is predicated on "the masses" abdicating intellectual responsibility to leaders who leverage them for their own benefit. This has happened since before recorded history. It is codified in…

It's gonna happen this decade, I'm sure of it. Covid has completely screwed our hyperefficient society to the point where I think no human institutions can stem the massive tidal wave that is coming. I'd guess that the financial system, the higher education system, and the political system will all come undone during this period - there aren't many good bets, but I think being good with computers is reasonably safe,…

I have the same gut feeling, but have come to the opposite conclusion: Being good with computers will be very low on the list of meaningful skills once things really start to break down.

Re: 100 years of whatever this will be

#739

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Marriage is a contract. Governments regulate the enforcement of contracts. That's why they're involved. The religious part of marriage is entirely optional.

I think the difficulty is that for the vast majority of American history, marriages weren't really performed without any religious connotation. Hell, even legally, from what I understand, there was a time where marriages _had_ to be performed by a clergyman of some kind. Now, you're right, the religious association is technically optional, but it's worth remembering that for a very, very long time, marriage was as mu…

There was once a time (and still some places) when religion played a role in regulating other aspects of society, like dietary regulations. Nobody says "keep religion out of my kitchen" when the local health department insists that you don't cross contaminate other foods with utensils used on raw meat.

Just because we used to regulate these ideas with religion in the past doesn't mean that our current institutions are religious. Some people who are legally married also subscribe to religious meanings of marriage. Some people who have food handlers cards also follow religious food customs. They're related but independent concepts in the modern day. The modern legal construct of marriage in the US is secular.

Re: 100 years of whatever this will be

#740
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, but society has accelerated. 50 and 100 year precedents used to make sense. Now it seems like they need to be updated at least every 10 years, because that's how long it takes for society to fundamentally change at the current rate of progress. Regarding government, if you don't like your current government, then if you think hard about it, what you really want is either 1) additional regulations or restructur…

Voting is a blunt tool. It destroys too much nuance and freedom of choice.

Agreed. We should revise that process through new regulations and modifications to the existing system.
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