Facing housing crisis, L.A. voters back duplexes in single-family neighborhoods • Hacker News Board

Re: Facing housing crisis, L.A. voters back duplexes in single-family neighborhoods

#151

Post by robotburrito » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 6:07 PM UTC

cageface wrote: post #102

_fat_santa wrote: post #5

As soon as you look at the zoning of LA, the housing problem there becomes clear as day, even for someone who doesn't visit very often. I don't know what you would call this system but LA's problem is that the folks that have the power to fix housing have zero interest in doing because it would hurt their self interest. Housing is only a "problem" if you haven't bought a house yet, once you purchase a house, all the…

After living in Asia for the last several years where cities combine high density housing and good mass transit with door to door access to great shopping centers the US just looks comically dysfunctional to me. Who wants to spend hours every day stuck in traffic and looking for parking and then pay outrageous rents for the privilege?

I too have this dream. Unfortunately the behavior here in mass transit is much different than what I experienced in Asia. This turns many people off to using it IMO.

Re: Facing housing crisis, L.A. voters back duplexes in single-family neighborhoods

#152

Post by ghaff » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 6:07 PM UTC

seibelj wrote: post #133

ghaff wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never spent a lot of time in JP, but my understanding is that it is nicer than it used to be. And the gentrification has been somewhat controversial: https://planetgeogblog.wordpress.com/2020/04/22/the-two-jps-... Also, for those not from the area, JP is indeed a "Boston neighborhood" but it's on the outskirts around parkland, the Arnold Arboretum, etc. and is about a 30 minute public transit ride [edit: on the…

The JP line is the orange line, and getting downtown takes less than 20 minutes. It is the second fastest and most reliable line after the blue line. Arlington is a car suburb and is not Boston proper.

Bleh. I knew that. Google did say 30 minutes when I looked. (I've never actually taken transit to JP.)

Of course, the reason that Arlington doesn't have better transit links is that they didn't want it when the Red line was extended to Alewife. JP is certainly less suburban than Arlington but it also doesn't (to me) really feel like it's in "the city."

Re: Facing housing crisis, L.A. voters back duplexes in single-family neighborhoods

#153

Post by lalaland1125 » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 6:10 PM UTC

ordinaryradical wrote: post #59

chizhik-pyzhik wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Upzoning does not magically make housing affordable. Housing pricing is more complicated than a simple supply and demand curve, although that tells a story at the macro level. And truly affordable housing can only be created by mandating that units sell below market value. Can you elaborate? "Affordable" housing only works as a hack within an artificially constrained market, how is building more housing not the ult…

Of course it's building more. But the question is what kind of more. Is artificially changing the density of every Single Family Home neighborhood going to create a more that depresses pricing? No. Because the housing will not all be built magically overnight. Units will come onto the market after: 1) The developer buys. 2) Tears down the SFH. 3) Builds a new multiplex. The capex in each of these steps guarantees tha…

> But in reality pricing is also dictated by: location, style, build quality, schools, and a hundred other factors.

All of those factors though are considered with respect to supply. If there are 11 homes and 10 buyers, then by necessity the prices for those homes must come down despite how good those homes are.

> This can make housing more dense and it can gradually lead to more units on the market. Potentially you could eventually reach competition dynamics that depress pricing.

You vastly overestimate the number of units that would need to be built to depress prices. Prices are set on the margin and a relatively small increase in supply (say 20% over 20 years which is quite feasible) can have a huge influence.

Going from 10 buyers chasing 9 homes to 10 buyers chasing 11 homes changes the dynamics an incredible amount.

Re: Facing housing crisis, L.A. voters back duplexes in single-family neighborhoods

#154

Post by jp57 » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 6:10 PM UTC

Do these California laws (or other laws in CA) address restrictive covenants that would prohibit duplexes in a neighborhood regardless of city zoning?

You often hear about how Houston, for example, "doesn't have zoning", but a huge fraction of new housing in Texas (Houston and elsewhere) is in planned neighborhoods covered by restrictive covenants that prohibit all sorts of things. In those neighborhoods, it's unlikely that anyone would be able to tear down a single family house and build a duplex on the lot. (Or even paint the existing house a different color without approval of the HOA board.)

Re: Facing housing crisis, L.A. voters back duplexes in single-family neighborhoods

#155

Post by 999900000999 » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 6:11 PM UTC

The city has been too far gone for 20 years.

You have some of most inept local politicians you can imagine, who are more focused on taking glamor shots in front of half a million dollar per unit homeless shelters.

If it's really costing half a million dollars to house a single homeless family, why not just give them $5,000 to move?

Even for someone like myself, and I do consider myself to be somewhat upper middle class, LA is a bad deal. Deal. The bare minimum to afford a place to live plus transportation ends up being around 3,200 per month. That's about $2400 for a 1 bdrm + 800$ for a car payment / insurance/ gas.

Compared to Chicago where a 1bdrm in a fantastic metro accessible area can be had for 1300$ or so. 100$ metro pass gets you around.

LA and much of California is past saving, get out while you still can.

Re: Facing housing crisis, L.A. voters back duplexes in single-family neighborhoods

#156

Post by gkop » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 6:11 PM UTC

duped wrote: post #138

ihaveajob wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing I don't get is why many SFH owners don't see the benefit of upzoning their lot: Overnight, their house is much more valuable because if they choose to, they can sell to a developer who can make MORE money by building more homes. And if they choose to keep their house as is, nobody is going to force them. In the end, it boils down to cars, though. Many people see the free parking space in front of their hous…

Some people aren't solely motivated by the rise in their property. Evidence already suggests doing nothing increases it plenty. On the other hand, some folks just don't like living in higher density neighborhoods. I can empathize with someone that bought a single family home decades ago, probably can't afford to buy a new one today even after selling it, and doesn't want to see their quiet neighborhood turn into a bu…

Is it “not solely home prices” or “has nothing to do with home prices”? The latter is not a defensible argument, on its face.

Re: Facing housing crisis, L.A. voters back duplexes in single-family neighborhoods

#157

Post by givemeethekeys » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 6:12 PM UTC

subsubzero wrote: post #130

What is the end solution to this housing crisis? The solutions will all hurt existing homeowners or multi-homeowners and are not likely to be implemented. The duplex in a single family lot is not going to move the needle on this crisis much, as building 2 houses on a existing lot will require a teardown of the original structure, then a buildup of the new duplex, all very costly. It will run at least $500K+ and I don…

My thoughts on the above list:

#1 will be challenged in court the highest level. Think "corporations are people".

#2 will pass only if a majority of California residents are renters and decide that they want to band together on this one issue.

#3 could work since it would ensure support from people who are currently renting but want to buy a home soon.

#4 is small compared to how much home prices appreciate. The real problem is supply.

#5 this would open up more space for residential development. If it is zoned mix-use with a mandate for minimum density, then it could definitely add more supply.

Re: Facing housing crisis, L.A. voters back duplexes in single-family neighborhoods

#158

Post by clairity » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 6:14 PM UTC

ordinaryradical wrote: post #59

chizhik-pyzhik wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Upzoning does not magically make housing affordable. Housing pricing is more complicated than a simple supply and demand curve, although that tells a story at the macro level. And truly affordable housing can only be created by mandating that units sell below market value. Can you elaborate? "Affordable" housing only works as a hack within an artificially constrained market, how is building more housing not the ult…

Of course it's building more. But the question is what kind of more. Is artificially changing the density of every Single Family Home neighborhood going to create a more that depresses pricing? No. Because the housing will not all be built magically overnight. Units will come onto the market after: 1) The developer buys. 2) Tears down the SFH. 3) Builds a new multiplex. The capex in each of these steps guarantees tha…

you’re making a reasonable initial point and then veering into an unsupported conclusion. it’s reasonable to say that static analysis (upzoning reducing prices ‘overnight’) can’t capture real-world dynamics (prices will change more gradually at a macro scale, since development isn’t instant or uniform). but the idea that sub-market rate housing only comes through incentivizing/mandating developers is a wholly unsupported conclusion.

consider the thought experiment where most existing regulation, especially zoning limits on number/type of units, are removed in LA. you’d eventually reach a steady state where developers would make cost plus a small risk premium while prices generally go down as supply equilibrates with demand (housing starts equal net immigration). you’d get affordable housing without directly incentivizing developers at all. that’s because the market would be freed of distortionary burdens specifically designed to backstop housing prices.

that’s done by a number of regulatory mechanisms including zoning, ceqa, building codes, federal housing loans, distortionary incentive programs, etc. changing just one piece of that complex regulatory environment (developer incentives) guarantees nothing other than tilting the current market towards developers, not fixing the housing problem.

Re: Facing housing crisis, L.A. voters back duplexes in single-family neighborhoods

#159

Post by MrFoof » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 6:14 PM UTC

jperras wrote: post #7

Montréaler here; I live in a neighbourhood which is uniquely composed of plexes - 3 to 8 units per "plex", with the typical number being 3, thus the term "triplex". Honestly, it's the ideal density IMHO. I get the convenience factors of urban density, but without (most) of the downsides of a high-rise condominium building.

Boston-area is loaded with them. Within 10 miles of Boston’s Downtown Crossing (which includes many, very dense adjacent cities) it’s unquestionably the most dominant type of building for residences.

Duplexes, triplexes and tenements dominate any decent sized city (100K+) in Massachusetts. It’s just what tends to happen when cities were founded 350-400+ years ago.

Re: Facing housing crisis, L.A. voters back duplexes in single-family neighborhoods

#160

Post by r0m4n0 » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 6:14 PM UTC

_fat_santa wrote: post #5

As soon as you look at the zoning of LA, the housing problem there becomes clear as day, even for someone who doesn't visit very often. I don't know what you would call this system but LA's problem is that the folks that have the power to fix housing have zero interest in doing because it would hurt their self interest. Housing is only a "problem" if you haven't bought a house yet, once you purchase a house, all the…

Agree with you and I think of this problem similar to that of slavery (not nearly the same ethically though).

It does concern me however what it took to make people give up their advantages, the grossly more obvious inequities in that case (and solution), and how long it took.