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Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

covid-datascience.com

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Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#241
post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The moment you go down that road, every academic epidemiologist and COVID expert will immediately be prosecuted because they have repeatedly made claims that were totally false and which have led directly to many deaths. For example, the claim that lockdowns work (they don't and this was known before COVID times), has led directly to people dying due to delayed medical treatment. Poverty also kills of course and thei…

> the claim that lockdowns work (they don't and this was known before COVID times) This is a bold claim and I'd be curious to see you back this up. By "lockdowns" - do you mean actual, genuine lockdowns / quarantines (mandatory stay-at-home orders, government-distributed emergency food packs and other essentials), or do you mean capacity restrictions etc. that get called "lockdowns" in the popular media? Note that my…

Yes. Take a look at table 1 in this WHO report from 2019 on non-pharmaceutical interventions:

https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/329438/9789...

"Quarantine of exposed individuals", "contact tracing", "border closures" and "internal travel restrictions" are "not recommended under any circumstances".

"Home quarantine of exposed individuals to reduce transmission is not recommended because there is no obvious rationale for this measure, and there would be considerable difficulties in implementing it"

And: "Border closures may be considered only by small island nations in severe pandemics and epidemics, but must be weighed against potentially serious economic consequences."

Also: "There is also a lack of evidence for the effectiveness of improved respiratory etiquette and the use of face masks in community settings during influenza epidemics and pandemics."

Finally: "This document will serve as a core component of WHO’s influenza prevention and control programme in community settings".

Consider that this was published in 2019. Less than a year later every single position had been inverted, and epidemiologists / public health experts were telling the world that "the science" didn't just recommend all these things but outright required them. The masks issue is especially neuralgic because at the start they correctly stated that there was no evidence mask mandates would have any effect, then flipped their position overnight and asserted anyone who thought otherwise was ignoring science.

As you correctly argue, there must be never be punishments for being wrong. However this is not a case of merely being wrong. No new evidence came to light to cause these flips in position, and in fact - as predicted - lockdowns, masks and so on have had no impact on the course of the pandemic. The models that were used to justify lockdowns were never validated against reality, and even contained severe coding errors: the people behind them have never admitted they did anything wrong here. Moreover the people who pushed hardest for lockdowns consistently claimed that there was "scientific consensus" behind what they were doing, even though just a year earlier the WHO itself had published a document stating that their recommendations should never be used in any circumstances! In other words, they were lying.

And that's before we get to the fact that the WHO has a long track record of going into mad panics over diseases that are extremely mild or may not even exist at all.

Der Spiegel, 2010, "Reconstruction of a Mass Hysteria: The Swine Flu Panic of 2009", https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/reconstruction-of...

Unherd, 2021, "Is the WHO inventing diseases" (in reference to gaming addiction disorder), https://unherd.com/2021/11/whats-china-got-against-gaming/

Any standard that allowed people to be imprisoned for spreading misinformation that was applied fairly would quite simply result in the mass imprisonment of public health officials, advisors and experts.

Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#242

> I don't know how to explain this other than movie-caused mortality. The above sentence alone gets my Skepticism antennae whirling, let alone the majority of the (relatively unassociated) facts. What the heck is movie-caused mortality? An exact search[0^] returns this same HN post, no help there. An inexact search[1^] returns results mainly about deaths that occurred during the filming of a movie or TV show. These d…

This morning, I heard about the OP's article on the podcast "More or Less." Hats off to OP, and shame on me for getting caught in the trollnet. :D

. .

BTW, More or Less is a great data science / stats podcast! https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qshd

Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#243
post #14

This reminds me of the sort of light poking of common "correlation is not the same as causation" and "beware of confounding factors" statistical failures behind the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster "clearly reduction in pirates has caused global warming!" [0]. But it's a major in modern public discourse, and one for once that I'm quite willing to lay heavily at the feet of the public education system. Easily on…

The BS filter is only obvious because we all agree that scientifically, watching a movie can't change your medical risk.

Try swapping the graph labels with: Took vitamin D pills, Excercised 30mins a week, Got the vaccine.

Most would agree that all three points probably have some level of health benefit. Suddenly the cause vs correlation can be much more difficult for the average person to determine.

Do all three reduce the death risk? Do some of them just also trend with more health conscious individuals? Are any of the three just completely bogus?

Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#244
post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. No one needs to become an expert in every possible field. What we do need to do is educate people out of new forms of innumeracy and illiteracy, where they are falling prey to basic fallacies of statistics or rhetorical tricks like motte and bailey and cat couplings. People are generally familiar with logical fallacies like ad hominem, strawman arguments, or circular reasoning. New weapons of persuasion are g…

Sounds good in theory but what about those who've fallen so hopelessly down the rabbit hole? I've pointed out the statistical flaws in the tweets and Instagram posts they send me, often there's an "aha" moment. But then they'll find another article from a questionable source or tweet from some "data scientist" misrepresenting data from John's Hopkins and the process begins all over again. Debunking the same nonsense…

I don’t have a ton of hope for some short-term (5-10 years) corrective out of the present state of affairs.

What I do see happening in that timeframe is a recognition that these skills are foundational to online culture and discourse, and a push to inculcate them in forthcoming generations through education and private and public policy action.

An immune response evolving to the environmental harms of Twitter, if you will.

But yeah - that chap who keeps failing at science in your Insta is likely a lost cause.

Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Statistics are meaningless without a rigorously examined causal model of the phenomenon under investigation. In my experience of statistics education, the art of crafting causal theories was scarcely addressed.

Sometimes it's so hard it seems almost impossible. People are still debating whether there is casual relationship between lead and violence.

Or aluminum and neurotoxicity.

Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#246
post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Testing more will uncover more benign cases, that's true, but it is also possible that people are testing more due to having more symptoms. Vaccination has continued in Denmark so if vaccines were killing people we'd expect to see that rocketing as Denmark has one of the highest vaccination rates. I think the causality is: More illness -> More people get tested More illness -> More people get vaccinated More illness…

I agree that if the vaccine was killing people, we'd be seeing mass death. Currently we are experiencing +15% all-cause mortality, where 2020 was around 0%. The reason we are testing 200k/day is because you don't have many options for moving around without a valid test or vaccine. Ie. school, shopping, work etc requires it.

Don't you think the +15% all-cause mortality is the "mass death" you would expect to see? Isn't it interesting that Pfizer originally publically under-reported all-cause-mortality numbers in March in the vaccinated group and then went ahead and provided the correct # of deaths in the vaccinated 4 months later? It looked like by their trials all-cause-mortality was identical in vax vs unvax'ed groups, but turns out 'statistically significant' higher number of deaths in the vaccinated group. Hmmmm.

Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#247
post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the claim that lockdowns work (they don't and this was known before COVID times) This is a bold claim and I'd be curious to see you back this up. By "lockdowns" - do you mean actual, genuine lockdowns / quarantines (mandatory stay-at-home orders, government-distributed emergency food packs and other essentials), or do you mean capacity restrictions etc. that get called "lockdowns" in the popular media? Note that my…

Yes. Take a look at table 1 in this WHO report from 2019 on non-pharmaceutical interventions: https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/329438/9789... "Quarantine of exposed individuals", "contact tracing", "border closures" and "internal travel restrictions" are "not recommended under any circumstances". "Home quarantine of exposed individuals to reduce transmission is not recommended because there is no obvi…

That document does recommend "school measures and closures" and "workplace measures and closures" for severe epidemics, and it also does in fact recommend "internal travel restrictions" once it becomes a pandemic.

Hence my question about what you mean by "lockdown." This document actually argues in favor of the sorts of things called "lockdowns" in the media, and against quarantines - which was not my personal position, but I think it definitely does not back up the claim that lockdowns (in the media sense) do not work, either.

I would also note that right beside all of the things you quote is a column "Quality of evidence," and the recommendations saying that you should avoid home quarantines and border closures are based on evidence of "very low" quality. So I don't think that you or the WHO actually have evidence saying that these things don't work. The WHO just went with their gut feelings that they were bad ideas. Now we have facts, which supersede feelings. That is an appropriate, science-based reason to change your opinions.

(Also, SARS-COV-2 is not an influenza pandemic, it's a SARS pandemic, and this document is about influenza.)

Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't get this attitude, if things are correlated, it should at least make a scientist wonder why. It certainly could be random chance, but correlation can also lead to establishing a causal model or discovering a third variable. If two things keep happening in conjunction, it at least merits further investigation. It seems like there's this extreme reaction against people behaving like correlation equals causation…

I don't remember who said that (pretty sure that it was R Monroe in xkcd, as usual): correlation is not causation but the data is heavily winking at you (it was more funny in his words)

Of course it was xkcd: https://xkcd.com/552/. The exact text is: "Correlation doesn't imply causation, but it does waggle its eyebrows suggestively and gesture furtively while mouthing 'look over there'."
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