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Update on Omicron

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Re: Update on Omicron

#401

Post by semerda »

somewhereoutth wrote: post #354
semerda wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Replication-incompetent adenoviral vectors? Lex Fridman had a virologist on his podcast talking about the mutations done to the adenovirus to make it safe for the delivery of the s-protein (used in viral vector J&J + AstraZ vax). Maybe I misunderstood that?

Engineered vs evolved. For sure you can take a virus and knock out the bad bits - but I believe we have no evidence this has occurred in the wild due to selection pressure.

I’m not talking about inactivation with formaldehyde. If they did that in the viral vector it would disable the delivery mechanism (adenovirus).

Re: Update on Omicron

#402

Post by PostOnce »

teaearlgraycold wrote: post #361
PostOnce wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's plausible, but it's not the whole picture. It may only partially explain some of the problem. We have, in the wealthy west, millions of vaccine-hesistant and vaccine-denialist people. I'm not just talking about poor or uneducated people, either. I personally know wealthy, educated, analytical people who have bought into the fearmongering and propaganda. I was shocked to find how deeply skeptical they were. I w…

Is the propaganda really that good? Or did they want to be skeptical to begin with?

I think it's not a function of quality, but of time and volume; if you hear something enough, you might–if only fleetingly–find yourself asking "what if they're right?", because it's not like it's just one crazy guy, it's a lot of voices.

Re: Update on Omicron

#403

Post by YZF »

nradov wrote: post #374
YZF wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you think of some issues with this study? legitimate question. Looking at one data point here. Israel. The data point pretty much represents the peak of the wave caused by the Delta variant. The story in Israel goes that the vaccines worked so well against the previous variants that the entire country went back to normal. But with 60% of the population vaccinated and Delta the effective R number is easily over 1…

"Experts: Vaccine Immunity Waning, Signs Israel Facing Fifth COVID Wave" https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/experts-vaccine-immunity...

Right (also "in part because the vaccination of children takes time to come into effect").

They are hovering around R=1 with very minimal restrictions and still a significant amount of people that won't take the vaccine ("citing the fact that a third of the population remains unprotected. This refers to 670,000 unvaccinated Israelis, more than a million people who haven’t received the booster, and children under 12"). They're making up for the vaccine coverage to some extent by:

1. Lots of people got sick. Israel has a young population and a very strong healthcare system so they were able to manage a very high daily case rate per capita.

2. Booster shots.

3. And now, vaccinating children.

I don't think anyone knows yet exactly what sort of waning effect you have after the third booster. It's also hard to say what portion of the change is behavioral changes vs. the vaccine's wane.

Now the new variant completely changes the calculus yet again.

Re: Update on Omicron

#405

Post by anonnyj »

YZF wrote: post #198
Hermel wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the virus could ever be stopped with today's vaccines, even if everyone was vaccinated. Data from fully or almost fully vaccinated countries clearly show that this doesn't eliminate the virus. It of course helps, but we have to depart from the idea that the "zero covid" strategies work.

Which are the fully vaccinated countries you're talking about here? Vaccines for kids 5-12 are just starting and even the countries with the most vaccine intake still have 10%-20% that won't take it. At any rate it's really enough to bring this to a low enough case per capita which generally the vaccines do help with. The less active cases the lower the number of random mutations.

2 more weeks to flatten the curve

Re: Update on Omicron

#406

Post by cblconfederate »

samwillis wrote: post #167
mr_sturd wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very true; and even if Omicron turns out to be less dangerous than previous variants, it's a case of when, not if, a deadlier variant will emerge from a poorly-vaccinated population.

History shows that as a Virus mutates and evolves they tend towards more transmissibility but lower morality rate. There is a high chance Covid-19 will flow the same path. That’s not to say that a more deadly variant won’t appear it almost certainly will (or has already) but it is unlikely to become the dominant variant.

Covid is actively being stopped from evolving however because of vaccines and because, you know, we don't just let infected people die. Deaths are usually in people with preexisting conditions. In this context , why will the virus evolve a milder version? It seems strict isolation of the infected might help

Re: Update on Omicron

#407

Post by mrhands556 »

sol_invictus wrote: post #307
hx2a wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only way you’ll stop this thing from mutating into a variant not covered by the vaccine is by eradicating it everywhere, simultaneously. Even if it were possible and achievable to vaccinate all humans, we'd still have a problem because COVID has spread to other mammal species. There's no reasonable plan that I know of to vaccinate animals in the wild. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/11/10/1054224…

Whats your plan to solve logistical problems with the vaccines in Africa? https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/covid-19-vaccine-delive...

Africa has the youngest population in the world and they deal with viruses on a daily basis that are much more deadly than covid to young people. It will be hard to entice people to get vaccinated for covid in these situations.

Re: Update on Omicron

#408

Post by lots2learn »

cheaprentalyeti wrote: post #166
aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

If the vaccines are only retarding infection and transmission instead of blocking it, then all they're doing is giving the virus a space to evolve in.

They teach the immune system how to fight the virus, reducing duration and quantity of infection, which reduces opportunities for the virus to replicate and potentially mutate.

Re: Update on Omicron

#409

Post by mrhands556 »

cblconfederate wrote: post #406
samwillis wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

History shows that as a Virus mutates and evolves they tend towards more transmissibility but lower morality rate. There is a high chance Covid-19 will flow the same path. That’s not to say that a more deadly variant won’t appear it almost certainly will (or has already) but it is unlikely to become the dominant variant.

Covid is actively being stopped from evolving however because of vaccines and because, you know, we don't just let infected people die. Deaths are usually in people with preexisting conditions. In this context , why will the virus evolve a milder version? It seems strict isolation of the infected might help

If that was the case we would’ve been wiped off as a species 40 years ago as the seasonal flu mutated into a super virus.

Re: Update on Omicron

#410

Post by seoulmetro »

coolso wrote: post #190
ceejayoz wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Did better information become available... Yes. We have significantly more information on the utility of cloth and surgical masking than we did in March of 2020.

Ahh, so the Asian countries that have been using them for decades, as well as medical workers all over, have been hiding their secrets from us until after March 8th, 2020. Perhaps the real answer is a little bit of both things can be true? That is, if you don’t consider Fauci an infallible deity?

The real answer is that some people hide facts for political gain. Actually, most people do. It's a shame really.
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