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Update on Omicron

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Re: Update on Omicron

#231

Post by grimdata »

layoric wrote: post #193
grimdata wrote: post #179

The media blows these variants out of proportion. I've been doing research in computational epidemiology now for quite some time. Get concerned when we say there is a new strain. As for now, this new variant will be used for political purposes (look at us, we're doing something about it). This variant has been in the US for about two months, and it is easy to spot in the data in places like Colorado. Don't blame me,…

Are there any sources you know of regarding the related African countries selling their allocations?

I recommend pulling a FOIA from ita.gov on vaccine redirection. Just ask for any documents related to redirection of aid to South African countries.

Re: Update on Omicron

#232

Post by spartanatreyu »

djbusby wrote: post #182
Hermel wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the virus could ever be stopped with today's vaccines, even if everyone was vaccinated. Data from fully or almost fully vaccinated countries clearly show that this doesn't eliminate the virus. It of course helps, but we have to depart from the idea that the "zero covid" strategies work.

We got to zero polio. What's stopping it from happening here?

Denialism and lack of economic support.

Re: Update on Omicron

#233

Post by thomascgalvin »

willmorrison wrote: post #158

Pretty useless statement. No interesting information.

In science, "we don't know yet" is on of the most useful statements you can make. It does two things of note:

1. Tells anyone that's paying attention that any speculation is just that, speculation, and 2. Tells people that while we don't have answers yet, those answers are being looked for.

Re: Update on Omicron

#234

Post by mattrighetti »

ant6n wrote: post #207
mattrighetti wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems to be disputed too, this is an interesting read: Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States.[0] > At the country-level, there appears to be no discernable relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days > Notably, Israel with over 60% of their population fully vaccinated had…

That article is garbage, full of randomly picked data points, not accounting for other variables, blatant misinterpretations and convenient omissions. Anti-vaxxers love posting it.

Can you elaborate more on that? Legitimate question, I came across this a couple days ago on some other thread here on HN.

Re: Update on Omicron

#235

Post by oezi »

XorNot wrote: post #107
oezi wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it is the other way around, there is no pressure to maintain a high severity as long as the virus can spread thus leading to mutations that lose the severe traits.

Viruses aren't trying to kill their hosts, they're trying to replicate. But to replicate they kill the cells they're in. COVID's severity is because it's making a tradeoff between the time it takes the immune system to destroy it, vs the need to get a host walking around and socializing while breathing it out onto new hosts. The lethality is a side-effect of its replication strategy.

I thought the lethality was just the immune system running havoc. If a virus could achieve it, it would remain symptom-less and just spread.

Re: Update on Omicron

#236

Post by kevin_thibedeau »

ceejayoz wrote: post #155
coolso wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fauci told 60 Minutes on March 8th, 2020: > “There’s no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet, but it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is. And, often, there are unintended consequences — people keep fiddling with the mask and they keep touching their…

Albert Einstein: > Quantum mechanics is very impressive. But an inner voice tells me that it is not yet the real thing. The theory produces a good deal but hardly brings us closer to the secret of the Old One. I am at all events convinced that He does not play dice. Scientists get things wrong. I'm more concerned about someone who won't change their position when better information becomes available.

That statement hasn't been proven wrong.

Re: Update on Omicron

#237

Post by LasersGoPew »

samwillis wrote: post #167
mr_sturd wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very true; and even if Omicron turns out to be less dangerous than previous variants, it's a case of when, not if, a deadlier variant will emerge from a poorly-vaccinated population.

History shows that as a Virus mutates and evolves they tend towards more transmissibility but lower morality rate. There is a high chance Covid-19 will flow the same path. That’s not to say that a more deadly variant won’t appear it almost certainly will (or has already) but it is unlikely to become the dominant variant.

The current vaccines don't prevent infection, reinfection, or transmission -- which eliminates much of the selective pressure for lower mortality. We could end up with a situation where everyone alive on earth is vaccinated, carries the virus, receives regular boosters, and anyone who isn't or who misses a few boosters, faces certain death. Similar to Marek’s disease in chickens.

Re: Update on Omicron

#238

Post by somewhereoutth »

cletus wrote: post #108

No one still thinks Covid is ever going away, right? It's likely something we'll just have to deal with like the flu. For one thing, there are now Covid-19 reservoirs in various animal populations. It's hard to say how this will evolve but there's a lot of evolutionary pressure on viruses to become more transmissible and less deadly. Why less deadly? Because a virus that is too deadly will likely die. It's why the Sp…

> Why less deadly? Because a virus that is too deadly will likely die. It's why the Spanish flu is now just H1N1.

Given how slowly SARS-CoV-2 kills you (if it does), there isn't any selection pressure to do it less often.

Indeed, my understanding is that no human virus has evolved to become less virulent. It is unclear why H1N1 disappeared a few years after it emerged as the Spanish flu, most likely it simply ran out of susceptible hosts. In particular, we have no evidence of a successor virus, evolved from H1N1, that was both less virulent and drove out H1N1 at that time.

I agree that annual shots are a very real possibility. I also share your pessimism about our response to global warming.

Re: Update on Omicron

#240

Post by sxg »

kubav wrote: post #226
aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

Totally agree. I am 30 and already got 2 jabs. I will probably need to get 3rd in less than 6 months to be able to normally live (covid pass in Europe). Risk to person of my age is low even without vaccine. I got myself vaccinated only to help the society (and to get covid pass) but I do not feel that I am helping if they are wasting vaccines on people like me instead of sending them to people who actually need them.…

Vaccination is less of a supply problem and more of a distribution and demand problem. One vaccine administered in the western world does not mean one vaccine has been made unavailable to the third world. It's similar to food scarcity, the primary problem is poor infrastructure making distribution networks extremely inefficient.
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