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Update on Omicron

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Re: Update on Omicron

#151

Post by coolso »

minimaxir wrote: post #128

> Fauci told Biden it'll take ~2 weeks to get "more definitive information on the transmissibility, severity, and other characteristics" of Omicron, per WH. > "He continues to believe that existing vaccines are likely to provide a degree of protection against severe cases of COVID." https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/146508649802653696... https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases...

Fauci told 60 Minutes on March 8th, 2020:

> “There’s no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet, but it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is. And, often, there are unintended consequences — people keep fiddling with the mask and they keep touching their face.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-fauci-outdated-...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/preventing-coronavirus-facemask...

Re: Update on Omicron

#152

Post by 0-sodium »

baby wrote: post #77

Tl;dr: we don’t know much currently. It is very frustrating that our tools and techniques are so slow at analyzing, detecting, understanding airborne diseases.

Chose carefully - fast or accurate.

Re: Update on Omicron

#153

Post by mikeyouse »

Taywee wrote: post #71
gukov wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, not after this: https://twitter.com/who/status/1217043229427761152?s=21

Wasn't that the most up-to-date data at the time? Are you claiming that they did find clear evidence and were lying about it, or that they somehow should have had evidence to the contrary at that time? Just like any burgeoning subject, you should generally keep up with the expert recommendations. Expecting them to have had all the answers and get everything exactly right in a circumstance with as many unknowns as thi…

The same thing happens with e.g. Fauci's mask remarks from March of 2020. Somehow people pretend like that was the fatal communication sin of the whole pandemic and the reason there's little trust in the medical community and they ignore the months and months of downplaying the virus and just an endless stream of disinformation from literally everyone else in the administration in service of trying to get reelected.

Re: Update on Omicron

#154

Post by aetherspawn »

Ok, my 2 cents.

This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story?

It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’ll never get out of this.

The only way you’ll stop this thing from mutating into a variant not covered by the vaccine is by eradicating it everywhere, simultaneously.

Re: Update on Omicron

#155

Post by ceejayoz »

coolso wrote: post #151
minimaxir wrote: post #128

> Fauci told Biden it'll take ~2 weeks to get "more definitive information on the transmissibility, severity, and other characteristics" of Omicron, per WH. > "He continues to believe that existing vaccines are likely to provide a degree of protection against severe cases of COVID." https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/146508649802653696... https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases...

Fauci told 60 Minutes on March 8th, 2020: > “There’s no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet, but it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is. And, often, there are unintended consequences — people keep fiddling with the mask and they keep touching their…

Albert Einstein:

> Quantum mechanics is very impressive. But an inner voice tells me that it is not yet the real thing. The theory produces a good deal but hardly brings us closer to the secret of the Old One. I am at all events convinced that He does not play dice.

Scientists get things wrong. I'm more concerned about someone who won't change their position when better information becomes available.

Re: Update on Omicron

#156

Post by PeterisP »

danenania wrote: post #130
PeterisP wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Multiple countries have sustained mass testing of at least certain groups of population. The argument about undetected asymptomatic cases would be valid in early 2020 when tests were scarce, but now there are good continuous metrics from people who get tested even if asymptomatic.

Gotcha—I’d be interested in links to some of this research. I wasn’t aware there was conclusive evidence that it’s more severe.

Oh, I'm not following the news on Delta or any other variants much, however, I just know people who are measuring the prevalence of variants in the general population in reasonable ways which would definitely cover also asymptomatic people (one is mass testing - e.g. right now 100% of local kids are getting weekly tests in schools, and all hospital admissions get tested even if it's e.g. a car crash, but there's also the viral analysis in sewer system, which is a cool way to get a total perspective on large populations), so studies about the severity of Delta (whatever they are saying) should not be distorted by the particular problem of asymptomatic cases not getting reported, the researchers now have good tools to get the "denominator" part correct.

Re: Update on Omicron

#157

Post by wrl »

coolso wrote: post #151
minimaxir wrote: post #128

> Fauci told Biden it'll take ~2 weeks to get "more definitive information on the transmissibility, severity, and other characteristics" of Omicron, per WH. > "He continues to believe that existing vaccines are likely to provide a degree of protection against severe cases of COVID." https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/146508649802653696... https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases...

Fauci told 60 Minutes on March 8th, 2020: > “There’s no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet, but it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is. And, often, there are unintended consequences — people keep fiddling with the mask and they keep touching their…

Yeah, and humanity used to believe in miasma theory too. Fauci being wrong and then correcting himself later is a good thing, actually.

Re: Update on Omicron

#159

Post by mattrighetti »

aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

The fact that this has been discovered in Africa doesn’t mean that it originated there in the first place.

> Several scientists said they suspected that the variant had been spreading undetected in countries with lackluster sequencing efforts before it surfaced in Botswana and South Africa, giving it more time to scatter globally. Nevertheless, European nations did not find the variant until after South Africa alerted them to it, demonstrating the gaps in their own surveillance efforts. [0]

More on this can also be found here [1].

[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/27/world/africa/coronavirus-...

[1] https://www.linkedin.com/posts/graemecodrington_interesting-...

Re: Update on Omicron

#160

Post by lkbm »

evgen wrote: post #135
tpmx wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/26/covid-omicron-variant-south-... South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla said that new travel restrictions amid concerns over a heavily mutated Covid variant are “unjustified.” He slammed other nations for “wanting to put blame” and ascribe the variant to South Africa rather than working collaboratively to address the situation as guided by the WHO.

And https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-59453842 where ‘[SA president] Cyril Ramaphosa said he was "deeply disappointed" by the action, which he described as unjustified, and called for the bans to be urgently lifted.’ Your country has a very low vaccination rate and you are ground zero for a new variant, but feel the need to be “deeply disappointed” that others trying to slow the spread slightly may impact your…

Ground Zero was Botswana[0]. South Africa is the country leading the research and monitoring because they have an exceptionally strong epidemiological community and facilities.

(And, yes, a very low vaccination rate.)

[0] https://www.dw.com/en/covid-what-we-know-about-the-omicron-v...

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