Earlier quoted context omitted.
Which ones do you believe are level headed?
The Economist.
The financial press is always better on this sort of thing because they are only really interested in the economic outcomes.
Update on Omicron
141–150 of 794 posts
Re: Update on Omicron
#142Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the ulterior motive is ass-covering. If you don't order a lockdown and it was needed then lots of people die, this is very bad. If you do order a lockdown and it wasn't needed then you can say that you were just being safe. And it's hard to even tell when a lockdown wasn't needed because the very act of doing it changes the result and leads to less cases. The lockdown was successful! It's always easy to say "…
"Ass-covering" is a really uncharitable synonym of "being prudent."
Ya, to me, ass covering is much more like trying to rewrite history after the fact, downplaying the virus, or maybe trying to hide statistics like nursing home deaths in your state.
Re: Update on Omicron
#143Tl;dr: we don’t know much currently. It is very frustrating that our tools and techniques are so slow at analyzing, detecting, understanding airborne diseases.
I think their best would be educated guesses without actually seeing how it behaves in the wild. Though with them simply saying it's a VoC with a high number of mutations has led the media to catastrophise in their reporting.
Re: Update on Omicron
#144Earlier quoted context omitted.
We definitely shouldn't oversimplify. Delta was simultaneously more infectious and more deadly than the original variant. Virus mutations can be better for us, and they can be worse. This article https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095397/ paints a sensibly nuanced picture.
> Delta was simultaneously more infectious and more deadly than the original variant. That's not my understanding
We don't know for sure, because a lot of people with and without symptoms got tested regularly.
Re: Update on Omicron
#145Earlier quoted context omitted.
We definitely shouldn't oversimplify. Delta was simultaneously more infectious and more deadly than the original variant. Virus mutations can be better for us, and they can be worse. This article https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095397/ paints a sensibly nuanced picture.
> Delta was simultaneously more infectious and more deadly than the original variant. That's not my understanding
It's well known it's more infectious, and widely suspected to be more deadly. See both https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/why-is-de... and https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-var...
Re: Update on Omicron
#146Earlier quoted context omitted.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/26/covid-omicron-variant-south-... South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla said that new travel restrictions amid concerns over a heavily mutated Covid variant are “unjustified.” He slammed other nations for “wanting to put blame” and ascribe the variant to South Africa rather than working collaboratively to address the situation as guided by the WHO.
And https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-59453842 where ‘[SA president] Cyril Ramaphosa said he was "deeply disappointed" by the action, which he described as unjustified, and called for the bans to be urgently lifted.’ Your country has a very low vaccination rate and you are ground zero for a new variant, but feel the need to be “deeply disappointed” that others trying to slow the spread slightly may impact your…
Also note that the low vaccination rate in SA is not due to a lack of vaccine availability.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-...
Re: Update on Omicron
#147Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why do you say "excuse for another lockdown"? Are you implying that someone in government has alterior motives to desire a lockdown?
This narrative is so silly to me. Same with those who think that mandating mask wearing is some flex by the government to exert control. It's common sense that in order to stop the spread of highly contagious respiratory viruses, having folks stay away from one another for a bit works... if people follow the lockdown, which too many don't. If anything, politicians are hesitant to invoke a lockdown due to the vocal mi…
> And it's not like the local government is gaining anything from slowing down the local economy and annoying its citizens
It’s a lot simpler than that. Weilding political power is psychologically addictive, perhaps even more so than recreational drugs. Like drugs, the user will always want to come back for another hit, and thus politicians will use every excuse and rationalization to continue to use emergency powers.
Re: Update on Omicron
#148South Africa's COVID-19 adviser, Prof Barry Schoub told Sky News that so far, most Omicron cases, were mild. https://youtu.be/3RSRtuRm92o Edit: "South African doctor who raised alarm about omicron variant says symptoms are ‘unusual but mild’" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas... "Dr Angelique Coetzee said she was first alerted to the possibility of a new variant when patients in her busy pr…
This is a novice interpretation of the data. Most early cases are recorded as mild. Severe cases and hospitalizations lag infections by 2-3 weeks, and deaths lag by 2-3 months. It's frankly irresponsible to report this factoid without that caveat.
> Severe cases and hospitalizations lag infections by 2-3 weeks
The starting point in this case would be symptoms onset, surely? First samples were taken on November 14; the median time between the onset of symptoms and hospitalization is 5-10 days; patients have been followed since November 18 [0].
[0] https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/safrican-doctor-says-pa...
Re: Update on Omicron
#149Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why do you say "excuse for another lockdown"? Are you implying that someone in government has alterior motives to desire a lockdown?
On the one hand, people have been claiming for years that the world is sleep walking into authoritarian, kleptocratic fascism. On the other hand, if you are even slightly sceptical that the same authoritarians might be using lockdowns to make public protest illegal and overstep civil liberties you are a conspiracy-believing, alt-right moron.
Are there any examples in the US of using lockdowns to make public protest illegal?
Re: Update on Omicron
#150Earlier quoted context omitted.
I expect this to be the case since decreased severity is associated with higher virus reproduction. The main question becomes second order effects.
Yup, tradeoffs forced to select towards survival.
Being more severe and deadly is not necessarily a propagation disadvantage.
Because if you sick you stay at home and don't go out. If you are very sick, you need to go to the doctor, or the hospital. This can create more spread.