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Update on Omicron

who.int

61–70 of 794 posts

Re: Update on Omicron

#61
post #2

This new variant has been called "mild." I hope this proves to be true, and is not used as an excuse for another lockdown. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas...

Why do you say "excuse for another lockdown"? Are you implying that someone in government has alterior motives to desire a lockdown?

COVID is bad. When cases spike, people naturally take steps to avoid getting infected. They also want other people to do the same.

The problem is that some steps are more conspicuous than others and that doesn't always align with efficacy. An obvious example is wearing a mask vs. washing your hands. They're both effective measures, but one can be seen by anyone and the other happens in the privacy of your bathroom, so one gets politicized and over-emphasized even if they're both of similar importance.

It works the same way for politicians. If things are going poorly, they're expected to do something. But their incentive is to do things that are conspicuous, even if they have a high cost and therefore a low cost/benefit ratio.

Almost any kind of mandate falls into this category because the cost/benefit for doing that thing is going to depend on individual characteristics. "Stay at home" may be a better strategy for someone who lives with amiable people than someone who lives alone and suffers from depression, or who lives with an abuser, but blanket mandates don't distinguish them. And yet when cases spike, Something Must Be Done.

Re: Update on Omicron

#62
post #2

This new variant has been called "mild." I hope this proves to be true, and is not used as an excuse for another lockdown. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas...

Why do you say "excuse for another lockdown"? Are you implying that someone in government has alterior motives to desire a lockdown?

On the one hand, people have been claiming for years that the world is sleep walking into authoritarian, kleptocratic fascism.

On the other hand, if you are even slightly sceptical that the same authoritarians might be using lockdowns to make public protest illegal and overstep civil liberties you are a conspiracy-believing, alt-right moron.

Re: Update on Omicron

#63
post #56

When did it get renamed to "Omicron"? Also, dammit, now it's a thing, and it's got its own little soundbite-able name instead of "B.1.1.529".

When people realized that "Nu variant" sounded like "New variant"

Re: Update on Omicron

#64
post #49
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I expect this to be the case since decreased severity is associated with higher virus reproduction. The main question becomes second order effects.

Yup, tradeoffs forced to select towards survival.

wow, suddenly I feel like the film "Venom" was trying to teach me this, it's no good for the virus if it keeps killing its hosts, really its mutating itself while searching for a host that can coexist with it (as I understand it, much of our DNA is incorporated from viruses, but I don't understand it very well :)

Re: Update on Omicron

#65
post #2

This new variant has been called "mild." I hope this proves to be true, and is not used as an excuse for another lockdown. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas...

Why do you say "excuse for another lockdown"? Are you implying that someone in government has alterior motives to desire a lockdown?

He knows. He just needs to make up an alternate reality to justify his own darkness.

On some level many of us simply don't give a shit about the fact that the virus can slaughter millions. We just don't think it will affect us and we don't want to be locked down. It's like a heroin addict. He knows the reality of his addiction but he needs to make up a reality to justify shoving one more injection into his veins, just one more.

Re: Update on Omicron

#66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you say "excuse for another lockdown"? Are you implying that someone in government has alterior motives to desire a lockdown?

I think the ulterior motive is ass-covering. If you don't order a lockdown and it was needed then lots of people die, this is very bad. If you do order a lockdown and it wasn't needed then you can say that you were just being safe. And it's hard to even tell when a lockdown wasn't needed because the very act of doing it changes the result and leads to less cases. The lockdown was successful! It's always easy to say "…

"Ass-covering" is a really uncharitable synonym of "being prudent."

Re: Update on Omicron

#67
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just caught myself on the funny fact, that my level of trust for some stranger on HN is higher than the level of trust for WHO. They worked hard to ruin their reputation.

Yeah, not after this: https://twitter.com/who/status/1217043229427761152?s=21

We're still doing this?

"Preliminary" is a key word, as is "clear". The clear evidence came (to the WHO, at least) about a week later. On the same day as the tweet, they provided further information that doesn't fit in a tweet indicating they expected things to potentially change:

> The timeline states that on that date, a WHO official noted in a press briefing that there "may have been" limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus between family members and that there was "a risk of a possible outbreak."

The WHO doesn't have a covert intelligence arm, so they only had what information the Chinese were willing to provide at the time. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/may/30/brian-fitz...

Re: Update on Omicron

#68

In general, respiratory viruses tend to get less severe over time. With this mass vaccination approach it may not turn out that way by some accounts I've read.

Isn't Delta vs Alpha a pretty convincing counter argument? It was more transmissible, more severe and better at avoiding acquired immunity.
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