Live data from Hacker News

Update on Omicron

who.int

21–30 of 794 posts

Re: Update on Omicron

#21
post #2

This new variant has been called "mild." I hope this proves to be true, and is not used as an excuse for another lockdown. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas...

Why do you say "excuse for another lockdown"? Are you implying that someone in government has alterior motives to desire a lockdown?

People like power, in particular politicians. The have a bias towards any measure that makes them feel powerful and in control.

Re: Update on Omicron

#24
post #12

In general, respiratory viruses tend to get less severe over time. With this mass vaccination approach it may not turn out that way by some accounts I've read.

Citations? I think I've heard that too, but if you've read something recently that would help me separate a study from a rumor.

The argument one frequently reads/hears on this is, that a virus has no evolutionary advantage to kill its host and if the virus becomes fitter in terms of infecting new hosts, they can neglect functions in their genome that lead to deadliness.

A respiratory virus may have an evolutionary advantage if it doesn't hit the organism so hard that the host stays home and isolates. Mild symptoms may increase the likelihood for socialising for example, thus there could be evolutionary pressure for a milder form to develop.

I would assume that these are just general observations and it won't allow a clear prediction where COVID19 variants are headed. But there are theories that other coronaviruses have been more aggressive initially until they became the milder forms that are nowadays endemic.

Of course we know plenty viruses that have evolved and are still deadly, so this isn't something I would bet on.

Re: Update on Omicron

#25

In general, respiratory viruses tend to get less severe over time. With this mass vaccination approach it may not turn out that way by some accounts I've read.

In order for there to be an evolutionary pressure toward becoming less severe, having higher severity has to give some disadvantage - e.g. killing the host before it can spread the disease or giving stronger symptoms so hosts can be isolated before they can spread it. The corona virus is pretty unique in how much it can spread before/without any symptoms showing up, which should mean there's relatively less room for improvement by lowering the severity.

Re: Update on Omicron

#26

In general, respiratory viruses tend to get less severe over time. With this mass vaccination approach it may not turn out that way by some accounts I've read.

Dude that’s 2019 science. Get with the times!

Re: Update on Omicron

#29

In general, respiratory viruses tend to get less severe over time. With this mass vaccination approach it may not turn out that way by some accounts I've read.

In the book “spillover”, notably written before Covid (so quite prophetic read from today’s perspective), the author discussed this claim. Although it often happens, it is by no means guaranteed (at least on satisfactory timelines), and there are counter examples.

One is the evolution of myxomatosis in Australia, it is a disease affecting rabbits. The disease split into 4 strains. Eventually the dominant one become, IIRC, one that had the slowest progression, but also was the deadliest overall.

Buns infected with that strain had larger chances of passing it on (since they were alive longer), and yet they would be more likely to die.

I guess evolution doesn’t care, and if a strain is more deadly, yet more persistent, it will win.

Re: Update on Omicron

#30
post #2

This new variant has been called "mild." I hope this proves to be true, and is not used as an excuse for another lockdown. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas...

Why do you say "excuse for another lockdown"? Are you implying that someone in government has alterior motives to desire a lockdown?

It doesn't have to be someone in government.

It could be a group of people acting strategically towards a particular goal, in a series of steps. Those steps would include paying funds for the following: Lobbying governmental officials across all three branches, Strategically networking & "giving gifts" (quid pro quo), Sponsoring scientific studies, Paying journalists to report certain things.

For example, Amazon Executives have a financial interests in reducing competition from independent retailers ("Mom & Pop shops"). A lockdown would certainly boost Amazon's position in that case. And Bezos does own the Washington Post.

By the way, have you heard of Operation Mockingbird [1]?

"Operation Mockingbird is an alleged large-scale program of the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) that began in the early years of the Cold War and attempted to manipulate news media for propaganda purposes."

"According to author Deborah Davis, Operation Mockingbird recruited leading American journalists into a propaganda network and influenced the operations of front groups. CIA support of front groups was exposed when a 1967 Ramparts magazine article reported that the National Student Association received funding from the CIA. In 1975, Church Committee Congressional investigations revealed Agency connections with journalists and civic groups."

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mockingbird

Post reply on HN