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Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

covid-datascience.com

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Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#61

Post by everybodyknows »

OJFord wrote: post #38

Tl;dr someone fell for Simpson's paradox [0] and wrote a (probably 'viral') post on how Covid-19 vaccines are killing us; this is a (slightly confusing at first without context, I thought - especially because it starts of joking about correlation/causation that seems a bit different to me) rebuttal. [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox#Correlatio...

Alternative explanation: He didn't "fall for" anything -- he's cynically exploiting a weakness in the UK stats presentation, with the help of selective citation, on a project of self-aggrandization. Try a scroll through the blog history.

https://alexberenson.substack.com/

Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#62

Post by OJFord »

cldellow wrote: post #56
OJFord wrote: post #38

Tl;dr someone fell for Simpson's paradox [0] and wrote a (probably 'viral') post on how Covid-19 vaccines are killing us; this is a (slightly confusing at first without context, I thought - especially because it starts of joking about correlation/causation that seems a bit different to me) rebuttal. [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox#Correlatio...

It seems to me that Berenson didn't "fall" for Simpson's paradox. He's a smart person. He peddles inflammatory rhetoric to build an audience. For example, he portrayed New Zealand's 2-week quarantine requirements for incoming travellers to New Zealand as "indefinite confinement for New Zealanders". When people pointed out the gulf between what he was saying and what the law was, he doubled down. I'd share the exact t…

What's the motivation for that? Infamy?

Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#64

Post by _jal »

api wrote: post #18

This sort of thing is why "do your own research" is simply not plausible advice for 99% of people, even highly educated intelligent people with time on their hands. Most of the high level problems in our civilization require years of study to even be capable of formulating a valid opinion. The thing people have to do is to instead focus on evaluating people and deciding who probably knows who they are talking about.…

Take the "Do your own research" slogan for what it is - an attack on expertise.

It is an attempt to lower the status, and presumably power, of "the elites" (credentialed experts), mostly perpetrated by the real (monied) elites.

Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#65

Post by fghab »

Creatively using statistics happens on both sides. Example: "Case statistics show us that this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated!"

But due to the 3g rule (access to events or buildings is granted to the vaccinated, recovered or people with a PCR test less than 24h ago) in countries like Germany, guess which group is tested most: The unvaccinated. Other groups do not need tests!

Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#66

Post by MeinBlutIstBlau »

dylan604 wrote: post #60
kwertyoowiyop wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Statistics is probably more useful than Calculus for just about everyone.

77% of all statistics are made up on the spot

Statistics and my AI class taught me it's 100% predictology. I mean just look at Zillow. It's the modern "tea leaf" reading.

Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#67

Post by emodendroket »

OJFord wrote: post #57
emodendroket wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Berenson is one of the most prominent deniers, previously famous for his claims about marijuana being far more dangerous than commonly believed.

I'm curious how you're (as someone who it sounds like doesn't believe him/fall for it) aware of them? I believe you, assume you're correct, he's (nor anyone else like that) just not 'on my radar' at all. I just assumed prominence/virality of at least this one post due to the existence of one (the submission) refuting it.

He is a former New York Times reporter, makes frequent media appearances, and was very active on Twitter before being suspended, so I was familiar with him before anybody had heard of COVID-19.

Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#68

Post by mattcwilson »

sinuhe69 wrote: post #41
api wrote: post #18

This sort of thing is why "do your own research" is simply not plausible advice for 99% of people, even highly educated intelligent people with time on their hands. Most of the high level problems in our civilization require years of study to even be capable of formulating a valid opinion. The thing people have to do is to instead focus on evaluating people and deciding who probably knows who they are talking about.…

My take is opposite. Everybody with a bit of common sense would see such claims as problematic immediately and so they can dive deeper into the stuff. The problem is so much easier to explain if one uses the visual approach with proportional boxes for each age group. Single metric (projection) can distort a multi-dimensional data significantly, everyone knows that. But unfortunately people make the same mistake again…

Agreed. No one needs to become an expert in every possible field.

What we do need to do is educate people out of new forms of innumeracy and illiteracy, where they are falling prey to basic fallacies of statistics or rhetorical tricks like motte and bailey and cat couplings.

People are generally familiar with logical fallacies like ad hominem, strawman arguments, or circular reasoning. New weapons of persuasion are getting crafted every day; we owe it to ourselves, each other, and the future humans to educate them on defense against the dark arts.

Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#69

Post by mcguire »

sinuhe69 wrote: post #41
api wrote: post #18

This sort of thing is why "do your own research" is simply not plausible advice for 99% of people, even highly educated intelligent people with time on their hands. Most of the high level problems in our civilization require years of study to even be capable of formulating a valid opinion. The thing people have to do is to instead focus on evaluating people and deciding who probably knows who they are talking about.…

My take is opposite. Everybody with a bit of common sense would see such claims as problematic immediately and so they can dive deeper into the stuff. The problem is so much easier to explain if one uses the visual approach with proportional boxes for each age group. Single metric (projection) can distort a multi-dimensional data significantly, everyone knows that. But unfortunately people make the same mistake again…

"But unfortunately people make the same mistake again all the time."

Exactly what the previous comment said.

Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#70

Post by DarylZero »

xoa wrote: post #14

This reminds me of the sort of light poking of common "correlation is not the same as causation" and "beware of confounding factors" statistical failures behind the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster "clearly reduction in pirates has caused global warming!" [0]. But it's a major in modern public discourse, and one for once that I'm quite willing to lay heavily at the feet of the public education system. Easily on…

I took high school statistics. I don't think it really had the kind of effect on students that you're going for.

Statistics like any math class was just another pointless and imposed game of symbol manipulation, for most. Not something that affects how they see the world or how they process disinformation (which disables rational thinking by appeals to emotion, so rational capabilities aren't necessarily even the issue).

Humans are naturally using statistical type reasoning all the time and are very good at it. But when it comes to things like in-group out-group consensus-forming conformity mechanisms, the whole point is they _overcome rationality_ for social cohesion. To follow rationality instead of the group, you have to leave the group, which is unthinkable, so your mind prevents you from thinking it long enough to change your mind, by emotional terminations.

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