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Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

covid-datascience.com

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Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#31

Post by boole1854 »

tux1968 wrote: post #5
gregjw wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its so so clearly a joke. Come on man.

What's the joke? It seems to me they're trying to make a point about the study that appears lower on the page, the one claiming that vaccinated people are dying at a higher rate than unvaccinated.

The joke is that not taking into account all known correlated predictors when performing a statistical analysis can produce absurd results. In this case, age is a metric variable known to be a correlated predictor of what movies an individual has seen, the probability of their death due to COVID-19, and the probability of their being vaccinated against COVID-19. The precise relationship between those four items is beside the point here -- the point is just that if you did not take into account that age is a metric variable and that it is a correlated predictor of both vaccination status and death, then you did your analysis incorrectly.

Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#32

Post by IgorPartola »

guilhas wrote: post #30

This article is like the factcheckers fact checking a similar irrelevant thing to avoid having to investigate the real issue

Sorry I am confused about which removed chart I’m supposed to see here. If you are talking about “3. Weekly mortality rates for deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) by vaccination status“ then it’s in no way clear to me that your conclusion is correct. First, the fully vaccinated line is the lowest there. I can definitely see a correlation between people getting their first shot, getting adventurous because they feel safe, and then catching COVID that they aren’t prepared for because they aren’t fully vaccinated. Also this chart isn’t separated by populations. That is the mortality rate isn’t “per 100,000 fully/partially/un-vaccinated”. It’s per 100,000 total. Which means that as the total number of unvaccinated people declines so does that particular mortality rate. If everyone was vaccinated and people still died from COVID then of course only the vaccinated would die, right?

Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#33

Post by nicoburns »

guilhas wrote: post #30

This article is like the factcheckers fact checking a similar irrelevant thing to avoid having to investigate the real issue

I'm seeing a slight upward trend in the "1 dose" line (indeed just crossing the "unvaccinated" line in a latest month), but the "2 doses" line is much lower than both, and doesn't seem to be changing much.

Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#36

Post by ctdonath »

tejohnso wrote: post #28
nanna wrote: post #12

Nice example of 'correlation does not imply causation' and if you submit this kinda thing to me in my data analysis class I'll fail you.

Makes me cringe a little bit when global warming presentations start out with a co2 vs global temperature chart. Especially if that forms the entire basis of the analytic part of the presentation. Because I know someone (most) is just thinking "correlation != causation" and dismissing the entire thing.

Yes; interesting that they never bring up the chart showing we’re at the peak of a natural 125,000 year temperature cycle.

Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#37

Post by phonypc »

guilhas wrote: post #30

This article is like the factcheckers fact checking a similar irrelevant thing to avoid having to investigate the real issue

What chart for October and November? Your link only goes to 24th September and says it's the latest release.

Edit: this comment and others now appear to be nonsensical because OP essentially replaced their comment with an entirely different one.

Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#38

Post by OJFord »

Tl;dr someone fell for Simpson's paradox [0] and wrote a (probably 'viral') post on how Covid-19 vaccines are killing us; this is a (slightly confusing at first without context, I thought - especially because it starts of joking about correlation/causation that seems a bit different to me) rebuttal.

[0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox#Correlatio...

Re: Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

#39

Post by OJFord »

gregjw wrote: post #3
tux1968 wrote: post #2

There's no way on earth they can actually know the movie-viewing history of those who recently died. So the data must simply be fabricated. It undermines the point they're trying to make. They should have used a real example.

Its so so clearly a joke. Come on man.

I read GP as recognising but criticising the joke - saying that (with quite a bit more thought/effort probably) you could construct one as jokey and ridiculous/unbelievable but based on real sources to make the point with actual data.
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