Live data from Hacker News

Omicron cases are mild so far

businessinsider.com

1–10 of 36 posts

Re: Omicron cases are mild so far

#3
post #2

This could be the "endemic version" of COVID that we've been looking for. Particularly if it really is so much more infectious than the other variants and so manages to displace them.

Could be. We've been waiting/hoping for something endemic but mild.

But there's no particular reason COVID would need to get any more mild than Delta.

Re: Omicron cases are mild so far

#4
post #2

This could be the "endemic version" of COVID that we've been looking for. Particularly if it really is so much more infectious than the other variants and so manages to displace them.

Why would that be something to look forward to? can't it still mutate to cause harm?

Re: Omicron cases are mild so far

#5
post #4
post #2

This could be the "endemic version" of COVID that we've been looking for. Particularly if it really is so much more infectious than the other variants and so manages to displace them.

Why would that be something to look forward to? can't it still mutate to cause harm?

Variants can have mixed qualities. For example, one could be suitable for maximum spreading yet also have a weakness that makes it easier to treat as an illness

Re: Omicron cases are mild so far

#6
post #4
post #2

This could be the "endemic version" of COVID that we've been looking for. Particularly if it really is so much more infectious than the other variants and so manages to displace them.

Why would that be something to look forward to? can't it still mutate to cause harm?

My understanding is that diseases tend to naturally select to be more contagious but less harmful. The more contagious more harmful mutations tend to die out because they incapacitate the host before maximally spreading vs. less harmful mutations. Not to say it's not possible for a more harmful mutation to spread widely, just that it's not the expected evolution.

Re: Omicron cases are mild so far

#8
post #7

This is a trick. They will say it is mild and then suddenly they will try to spin everything into extreme fear ... and oppression. Well known recipe.

You're saying that they're lying to make it seem innocuous? First, who are they? And what's the motive?

Re: Omicron cases are mild so far

#9
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would that be something to look forward to? can't it still mutate to cause harm?

My understanding is that diseases tend to naturally select to be more contagious but less harmful. The more contagious more harmful mutations tend to die out because they incapacitate the host before maximally spreading vs. less harmful mutations. Not to say it's not possible for a more harmful mutation to spread widely, just that it's not the expected evolution.

In a vacuum this isn't true: diseases will select to be more transmissible, that can mean less deadly, but not always, think HIV. If the incubation time is long enough before death, then it could not matter. So, you could imagine a nightmare scenario where some disease selects to have a longer incubation time while still transmitting, but then causes more severe disease down the road.

However, because we have vaccines, I do think ultimately you're right. If it turns out that omicron (or another variant) is basically a cold but also evades current vaccines, I think society will 'allow' it to become endemic.

Re: Omicron cases are mild so far

#10
post #4
post #2

This could be the "endemic version" of COVID that we've been looking for. Particularly if it really is so much more infectious than the other variants and so manages to displace them.

Why would that be something to look forward to? can't it still mutate to cause harm?

Yes, it could, but potentially you reach a point where there is little or no interest in vaccination. In that case the harmful mutations are self-defeating because they get stuck at dead-end homes with their hosts, who stay home from work.

In the highly vaccinated version of the story, vaccinated people are mostly unaffected by the severe effects, so they go about their lives and, if they happen to be the ones with the harmful mutations, they give those variants a fighting chance to spread. It would be different if the vaccines reduced viral load, but the limited studies available don't seem to point in that direction.

Post reply on HN