Live data from Hacker News

New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

351–360 of 432 posts

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#351
post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>because you-know-who proposed them Have we really arrived at the point where we've become the parody of a society in a Harry Potter book?

Yea, it’s clear that even saying the world “Trump” triggers people enough that you stand to get more signal in responses if you avoid writing it. Don’t shoot the messenger, I don’t have TDS.

I think that says a lot about those people more than anything else.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#352
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If 11.3% fewer people were infected overall up to that point in time, how many people are likely to be infected at T+1? 11.3%. It's not even a trick question.

But again, that's not what the study measured. You're extrapolating incorrectly. First, the study conflates distancing and mask-wearing. They admit this in the paper (there is a significant increase in distancing amongst the mask wearers). There is also a large change in the size of the populations that could easily swamp the effect size (i.e. the size of the mask population was something like 9% bigger than the cont…

I just noticed: my comment is missing the word "fewer". It should have read "how many fewer people are likely to be infected at T+1?"

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#353
post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Feels like you’re slinging a lot of assertions without substantive evidence, seemingly asking people to “Google that for you”. Among other things, vaccinated persons can and do contract, carry, and spread, during which a decent* mask does do its thing. And who doesn’t wear an N95 class mask? I see about 2/3rds N95, KN95, or KF94s, 1/3 useless masks, appearing to be mostly correlated along economic lines ($2/masks vs.…

None of that is relevant. The virus is now endemic so everyone will eventually be exposed regardless of whether they wear masks in some situations. https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/vinay-prasad/94646

It’s relevant to the point that was begin discussed.

TBC, I’d agree that your point, that of the article you shared, is valid. But it doesn’t pertain to the claims of inefficacy of masks outside a lab.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Feels like you’re slinging a lot of assertions without substantive evidence, seemingly asking people to “Google that for you”. Among other things, vaccinated persons can and do contract, carry, and spread, during which a decent* mask does do its thing. And who doesn’t wear an N95 class mask? I see about 2/3rds N95, KN95, or KF94s, 1/3 useless masks, appearing to be mostly correlated along economic lines ($2/masks vs.…

> And who doesn’t wear an N95 class mask? I see about 2/3rds N95, KN95, or KF94s, 1/3 useless masks, appearing to be mostly correlated along economic lines ($2/masks vs. $0.50/masks). I can't comment on the rest of the science, but fwiw, I live in NYC and I'd estimate that maybe 1 / 20 people I see on the street are wearing N95/KN95/KF94 masks. Everyone else just wears cloth masks, or paper surgical masks.

Sorry, yes, you’re right, it follows that there would be areas with 1/20 as you describe.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#355
post #289
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, those excluded countries included places where Trump had business interests and longtime allies of the US (Saudi Arabia). https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-trump-immigration-ba...

So it wasn't a Muslim ban then?

Just because it doesn’t target all muslim majority countries doesn’t mean it didn’t target solely muslim majority countries.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#356

FYI, slight correction: it’s been classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) now and has the name Omicron, not Nu: https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-o...

Conveniently skipping the Greek letter Xi from Nu to Omicron [0]

[0] https://www.mediaite.com/news/world-health-organization-skip...

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> masks should also be the new normaL For those who wish to wear them, sure. But for those who don’t? That is fine too. Masks should be a personal choice at this point. Not something forced by the state. We have vaccines. Getting one ends your obligation to participate in this Covid stuff. Forcing these NPI’s on vaccinated individuals is completely immoral in my opinion.

If wearing masks were solely a matter of your own personal protection, I would agree. Particularly since being vaccinated nearly eliminates your chances of having a serious covid infection. But vaccines do not prevent you from catching and transmitting covid to others. And some people are precluded from getting vaccinated for legitimate medical reasons, same as they are precluded from other vaccines. A vaccinated per…

Your argument says we should be doing this forever. There will always be viruses that we transmit to each other. Always was. We never took this kind of moral grandstanding before. Why are we doing this for this one specific virus?

I’m sorry, your argument just doesn’t make sense. You are arguing we should always be masked forever.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Source please. Find me a prominent politician that specifically called the China travel ban itself racist or xenophobic. If every politician did it, it must be easy to find a clip.

Oh, I did not read the thread closely enough. The muslim country travel ban, yes, there are many examples. China, not that I know of.

For the other ban, the fact that he called it a "muslim ban" and the specific countries that were picked is what made it racist and ineffective. It's hard to claim it's for security when they didn't include UAE, KSA, Egypt or Lebanon where the 9/11 hijackers were from [0]. It also happened to exclude all muslim countries where Trump has business in.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hijackers_in_the_September_11_...

So yes, it had no other purpose than being racist. Just like Trump didn't really care to use the time bought by the Chinese travel ban to actually develop tests or ramp up PPE. It always was a show rooted in xenophobia.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

COVID does not have a death rate of 33%.

You're missing the forest from the trees here; no one's suggesting that. Instead, we're saying that perhaps you shouldn't use Sweden as evidence supporting non-intervention when their deaths per capita was an order of magnitude higher than similar countries with more aggressive policies.

Right, but I could make the same argument about influenza. We had an order of magnitude of deaths higher in 2019 compared to 2020 due to influenza. That fact alone isn't enough to justify lockdowns for influenza, so it shouldn't alone be enough to justify lockdowns for COVID.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is closer to my area, you're basically right. Viruses copy a lot in immunocompromised people for a long time. Lots of copying is all ya need to make variants.

Since immunocompromised people haven't "produced" super flu variant so far, is it safe to assuming we won't have it with Covid? I may spread faster, but won't be more deadly.

Possibly, but spreading faster is much more deadly than being more deadly - at least for a disease that already starts at a high death rate like Covid does.

This happens because living sick people help spread the disease, while dead people don't.

Post reply on HN