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Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

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Re: Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

#261

Post by kccoder »

tamaharbor wrote: post #257

Like the common cold or the flu, odds are the coronavirus will be with us forever in some form or another. It is unrealistic to create a vaccine for every variant. We should learn how to treat, and allow natural immunity to take over. Take the 0.07% (correction) chance of death. Edit: Stupid math error.

The case => death rate is much higher worldwide (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality). Even if you assume that every human on the face of the planet has had COVID and the death counts are perfectly accurate you arrive at a rate of 5.5M dead / 7.8B cases = 0.07%, ten times the rate you stated. But of course not every human has contracted COVID, largely thanks to people taking preventative measures like social distancing, mask wearing and vaccination. The path you suggest would likely lead to the preventable death of many million more people.

Re: Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

#262

Post by LogonType10 »

proactivesvcs wrote: post #247
spookthesunset wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't mean any of these NPI's work, are ethical, or are worth their immense cost to society. It is entirely possible to "take this serious" but feel that society is causing itself far more harm with all these measures than it would have by doing absolutely nothing at all. None of these thing were in any playbook prior to march of 2020. And here we are almost a month from 2022 still working from this unwritten,…

Masks are cheap and simple with no drawbacks. Ventilation is easy in many cases. Keeping one's distance costs nothing (which is not the be-all of social distancing, I agree). Vaccines are free. These are all ethical, very effective and cost the individual almost nothing. Enforcing social distancing is complex and incurs costs. For outdoor venues it seems to be less effective. What other methods are causing far more h…

> Keeping one's distance costs nothing (which is not the be-all of social distancing, I agree).

Actually this costs trillions of dollars.[0]

[0] https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-2nd-qua...

Re: Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

#263

Post by OnlyLys »

tamaharbor wrote: post #257

Like the common cold or the flu, odds are the coronavirus will be with us forever in some form or another. It is unrealistic to create a vaccine for every variant. We should learn how to treat, and allow natural immunity to take over. Take the 0.07% (correction) chance of death. Edit: Stupid math error.

Isn't updating the vaccine on a yearly basis something that's already being done for the flu vaccines?

> because flu viruses are constantly changing, the composition of flu vaccines is reviewed annually, and vaccines are updated to protect against the viruses that research indicates will be most common during the upcoming flu season.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/keyfacts.htm

Re: Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

#264

Post by tamaharbor »

h0l0cube wrote: post #258
tamaharbor wrote: post #257

Like the common cold or the flu, odds are the coronavirus will be with us forever in some form or another. It is unrealistic to create a vaccine for every variant. We should learn how to treat, and allow natural immunity to take over. Take the 0.07% (correction) chance of death. Edit: Stupid math error.

> 0.007% chance of death Not sure if you're being hyperbolic, but the death toll just in the US has surpassed 0.23%

Sorry, misplaced decimal point…

World covid deaths = 5.7 million

World population = 7.9 billion

Death toll = 0.07%, rounded up

Re: Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

#265

Post by DebtDeflation »

tamaharbor wrote: post #264
h0l0cube wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 0.007% chance of death Not sure if you're being hyperbolic, but the death toll just in the US has surpassed 0.23%

Sorry, misplaced decimal point… World covid deaths = 5.7 million World population = 7.9 billion Death toll = 0.07%, rounded up

Not everyone in the world has had COVID, so you’re using the wrong denominator.

Re: Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

#266

Post by chii »

op00to wrote: post #224
koheripbal wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His argument is fallacious. He's saying that since there all other variants we're susceptible to the vaccine, it's unlikely that this one is. ...and goes on to list the high number of different markers the vaccines target. Unfortunately, vaccines largely target the spike proteins, and sequencing of omicron is demonstrating that every single protein marker on the spike is changed. Vaccines will likely have a very smal…

No. If every single “protein marker” on the spike protein was changed, there wouldn’t be a heck of a lot of chance for the virus to attach to a cell. There still needs to be basic compatibility with the cell and the spike to get inside.

> there wouldn’t be a heck of a lot of chance for the virus to attach to a cell.

but there isn't just a single shape that could be used to attach to a cell. Another shape could be compatible, but is not targeted by the vaccine of today.

I'm guessing that this makes the virus a different virus - but isn't that what mutations are? they are slowly causing the virus to change and at some point, it becomes a different virus.

Re: Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

#267

Post by chii »

kccoder wrote: post #261
tamaharbor wrote: post #257

Like the common cold or the flu, odds are the coronavirus will be with us forever in some form or another. It is unrealistic to create a vaccine for every variant. We should learn how to treat, and allow natural immunity to take over. Take the 0.07% (correction) chance of death. Edit: Stupid math error.

The case => death rate is much higher worldwide ( https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality ). Even if you assume that every human on the face of the planet has had COVID and the death counts are perfectly accurate you arrive at a rate of 5.5M dead / 7.8B cases = 0.07%, ten times the rate you stated. But of course not every human has contracted COVID, largely thanks to people taking preventative measures like social…

> The path you suggest would likely lead to the preventable death of many million more people.

people who suggest that we should "let natural immunity work" are implicitly imagining that they themselves are going to be OK, and would rather have their freedom and activities restored at the cost of lives. Other people dying is "a sacrifice i'm willing to make".

Re: Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

#269

Post by crate_barre »

tgsovlerkhgsel wrote: post #220
bmakdbd wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> However, Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association and a practising GP based in Pretoria, said it was “premature” to make predictions of a health crisis. “It’s all speculation at this stage. It may be it’s highly transmissible, but so far the cases we are seeing are extremely mild,” she said. “Maybe two weeks from now I will have a different opinion, but this is what we are seeing. So are…

Best case scenario: A virus that causes only mild symptoms, spreads quickly, and causes immunity against the original (more harmful) variants. Just lift measures and let it do its work...

COVID has been weaponized politically. Any politician that doesn’t take part in counter-measure theatrics risks losing an election where they will be attacked for not doing enough.

Re: Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

#270

Post by chii »

School-Cotton wrote: post #208
somewhereoutth wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"some of you may have to die, but that is a sacrifice I'm willing to make"

It’s perfectly reasonable to think X people dying is worth it to avoid Y people’s quality of life being reduced by Z, depending on the values of X, Y, and Z. Everyone behaves as if this is true every single day, regardless of how mad they get when it’s stated explicitly.

> It’s perfectly reasonable to think X people dying is worth it to avoid Y people’s quality of life being reduced by Z, depending on the values of X, Y, and Z.

not if I'm part of the X group, for purely selfish reasons, and it's perfectly rational for anyone to not want to be in the X group, no matter what values assigned to Y and Z are.

So the crux of the problem isn't what you stated - it's that these decisions are made, and some people disagree, because either they are in the X group, or not. This is why conscription is required in a war, and this is why lockdowns are needed in a pandemic, etc.

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