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New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

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Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#331

Post by _abox »

blindmute wrote: post #283
bingohbangoh wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, then when does this end? I'm all ears!

It doesn't end until you make it end. When I close my laptop, I am unaware there is even anything going on; I don't wear a mask, I am unvaccinated, and I am fortunate enough to live in a place where people largely behave in this same way. My life is 100% the same as it was 3 years ago. If you're restricting your own behavior, stop. If you're being restricted by third parties, seriously consider moving or outright dis…

I also am thinking of moving again.. I'm not so worried about covid and I'm 100% willing to vaccinate but using masks forever is not something I'm ok with. I have some medical issues that make that really nasty and there is still no proper process or ID for this. I'm willing to accept more risk. I've lived in 4 countries so far so this is fine for me.

But the problem is that governments change. I'll move somewhere and a new government will get voted in that'll change the game again..

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#332

Post by blindmute »

_abox wrote: post #331
blindmute wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't end until you make it end. When I close my laptop, I am unaware there is even anything going on; I don't wear a mask, I am unvaccinated, and I am fortunate enough to live in a place where people largely behave in this same way. My life is 100% the same as it was 3 years ago. If you're restricting your own behavior, stop. If you're being restricted by third parties, seriously consider moving or outright dis…

I also am thinking of moving again.. I'm not so worried about covid and I'm 100% willing to vaccinate but using masks forever is not something I'm ok with. I have some medical issues that make that really nasty and there is still no proper process or ID for this. I'm willing to accept more risk. I've lived in 4 countries so far so this is fine for me. But the problem is that governments change. I'll move somewhere an…

When society in your country or in every country strays too far from what you know is right, you can either become a revolutionary, or become self-sufficient, alone, or as a community. I don't have much advice for revolutions. For the other, all you can really do is move somewhere with like-minded people, rely as little as possible on the government, and try to live among your peers unmolested. This will be very hard if you like city life; the city is antithetical to self sufficiency for obvious reasons. But if you can accept a simpler life (and this does not mean lonely, boring, or anti-intellectual), I highly recommend it.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#333

Post by ed_balls »

lokl wrote: post #6
bingohbangoh wrote: post #2

Does anybody think these variants will ever stop? I hate, __hate__ this constant fear of a lockdown. Hell, a good part of europe is in lockdown right now. I get that the lockdown is being haphazardly enforce for those countries who've decided on it but I dislike these even being rules on the books. Leave me the hell alone! If we couldn't overcome it after a year of lockdowns, why is this gonna be the time it changes?…

According to the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Dashboard, as of now, Sweden has had 15,145 deaths; Norway has had 1,050 deaths; Denmark 2,863; Finland 1,309. With populations from Wikipedia (10,402,070 for Sweden; 5,402,171 for Norway; 5,850,189 for Denmark; 5,536,146 for Finland), this yields deaths per 1,000 people of: Sweden 1.456 Norway 0.194 Denmark 0.489 Finland 0.236 Saying Sweden has "just survived" doesn't capture…

Japan is fascinating for me. Do they just not test people? https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#334

Post by graeme »

biophysboy wrote: post #275
graeme wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This variant is moving much faster to dominance in South Africa than Delta. About 6x faster. You can make some quibbles (small case numbers etc) but this is quick. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/d42bcd3d-e70...

Your link is broken, but if you're talking about that FT chart with the title that starts with "A new variant is spreading rapidly..." then I might be able to to put you at ease a bit, without quibbling about "too early to tell". It is a time vs percentage share of cases chart, comparing Beta, Delta and Omicron. Omicron is growing very fast in percentage share relative to Beta and Delta. But Beta and Delta were compe…

Yeah, thanks for expanding on that. It’s a very valid point.

On the other hand, Israel, Hong Kong and Belgium have all reported breakthroughs from recent travellers. In Hong Kong it did so between two units in an isolation hotel.

So it certainly looks troubling. But yes if there a massive Delta wave in South Africa the relative growth rate would be slower.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#335

Post by kevin_thibedeau »

wrycoder wrote: post #271
cassonmars wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people aren’t wearing N95s, and to my understanding, no jurisdiction has a mask policy that requires them.

In the US, you can hardly get them. Amazon was restricting them to medical professionals until recently, and all the local stores have been out of stock since spring 2020. Now, if you currently look at Amazon for 3M N95, you'll see that a lot of the purchasers are doubtful that the products offered are genuine. We've had two years to increase the output of N95s and expand the hospital facilities to handle severe COVI…

Moldex are domestically manufactured and nobody knows about them. Their process also takes more work to copy. At this point anything "3M" is too risky to buy as it is likely a fake.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#336

Post by ed_balls »

biophysboy wrote: post #309
contravariant wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't really my area so this is conjecture and guesswork. If various immunocompromised people get infected then by a fluke their immune system could be just powerful enough to contain the infection but not eradicate it, this will remain the case until the virus becomes too powerful and the host dies. It's not the absence of selective pressure that is driving the mutation here, it's the mere fact that the virus m…

This is closer to my area, you're basically right. Viruses copy a lot in immunocompromised people for a long time. Lots of copying is all ya need to make variants.

Since immunocompromised people haven't "produced" super flu variant so far, is it safe to assuming we won't have it with Covid? I may spread faster, but won't be more deadly.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#338

Post by cthalupa »

spookthesunset wrote: post #324
cthalupa wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Vaccinated individuals have zero business being required to wear masks. They’ve done their part and should be able to return to a fully normal life. Masks help prevent you from spreading the virus to other. As a vaccinated individual, you are highly unlikely to have serious illness from CV19, but you can still get it and spread it to others, even if you are only mildly symptomatic. And this is based on data from th…

> masks should also be the new normaL For those who wish to wear them, sure. But for those who don’t? That is fine too. Masks should be a personal choice at this point. Not something forced by the state. We have vaccines. Getting one ends your obligation to participate in this Covid stuff. Forcing these NPI’s on vaccinated individuals is completely immoral in my opinion.

If wearing masks were solely a matter of your own personal protection, I would agree. Particularly since being vaccinated nearly eliminates your chances of having a serious covid infection.

But vaccines do not prevent you from catching and transmitting covid to others. And some people are precluded from getting vaccinated for legitimate medical reasons, same as they are precluded from other vaccines. A vaccinated person wearing a proper mask is less likely to transmit the virus to an unvaccinated person than they would be without the mask.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#339

Post by coolso »

cthalupa wrote: post #292
coolso wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

- "Travel bans don't work": supports banning the unvaccinated from traveling to particular establishments, supported preventing anyone from traveling pretty much anywhere during the first lockdown stages last year - "Walls don't work": closes and locks door when entering own home, probably has walls in house too - "Ivermectin is horse paste": is actually not good for COVID, but is on the WHO list of essential medicin…

> "Travel bans don't work": supports banning the unvaccinated from traveling to particular establishments, supported preventing anyone from traveling pretty much anywhere during the first lockdown stages last year The reason travel bans don't work is because we apply them too late and too selectively, because otherwise trade shuts down and we have other issues. A travel ban targeting African countries is not effectiv…

> The reason travel bans don't work is because we apply them too late and too selectively

So then don't do either of those things.

> You also cannot ban people from returning to their home country

You can quarantine them for two weeks.

> Establishments requiring vaccines acknowledge that you cannot stop the spread of the virus but require you take some minimal steps to reduce the risk profile. They are not the same thing.

But that's exactly what the US acknowledges with travel bans. They are minimal steps to reduce the risk profile and slow the spread.

> Doors and windows will not stop a motivated person from entering your home. Neither does a wall.

And yet you lock your doors, because they still provide a net-positive benefit and protection.

> People crossing the border illegally are motivated people, and a wall would not stop them either.

And yet mere talk of a wall gave us the lowest illegal border crossings in decades, while welcoming them with open arms, unsurprisingly, has now given us the highest number of illegal border crossings in decades.

You can't let the perfect be the enemy of the good here. Do you also not use hand sanitizer because it "only" kills 99.9% of germs and bacteria?

> this largely has come out of people literally buying it in horse paste form from Tractor Supply and taking it because they think it will help with CV19

No, it comes from the establishment demonizing ivermectin (or any vaccine alternative) from the beginning, causing a few loonies to become paranoid and try to secure some ivermectin for themselves. Then, the establishment took those few loonies, and shut down any legitimate discussion about ivermectin for use against COVID by repeating "horse paste" over and over and over ad nauseum. That doesn't sound very scientific to me. It sounds like treating the vaccine like a religion, and anyone who doesn't follow the establishment-party line is a heretic.

Do you know how many times the average American gets an antibiotic prescription in the US over their lifetime? It's given out like candy. Ivermectin is just as harmless if not more so. And yet the media is real big on these new Merck pills which we're now finding out are probably barely effective and have plenty of side effects, much more so than ivermectin.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#340

Post by eyelidlessness »

tamaharbor wrote: post #312
DaiPlusPlus wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know it’s from the Greek alphabet, but yeah, they shouldn’t have used “Nu” - homophones cause all kinds of confusion. ----- Patient: “Give it to me straight doc, what have I got?” Doctor: “you have a case of the Nu variant of Covid.” Patient: “yeah, but what is it? What’s it called?” Doctor: “the Nu variant” Patient: “yes, but WHAT IS IT NAMED?!” Doctor: “I’VE TOLD YOU ALREADY!”

Third base...

The band on stage…
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