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New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

291–300 of 432 posts

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#291
post #147
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand the recent celebrating of Florida’s COVID performance — in September, after vaccinations and treatment options were widely available, Florida was losing more than 300 people per day to COVID. They went from ~25th in the nation for COVID Deaths per capita to 8th worst since the pandemic started. That “just surviving” came at a huge cost of lives.

Florida has a higher proportion of elderly residents at higher risk. When you adjust for demographics the death rate in Florida is about average for the USA.

Citation?

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#292
post #146
post #3

> Travel bans are not evidence-based: It may seem like travel bans for individual countries are a necessary step, but I cannot stress enough that they do not work. This one point compromised the article for me. The standard for “working”, like all measures, is to slow down the spread. We all know travel bans got a bad name because you-know-who proposed them. But all countries imposed travel bans and we ought to be co…

- "Travel bans don't work": supports banning the unvaccinated from traveling to particular establishments, supported preventing anyone from traveling pretty much anywhere during the first lockdown stages last year - "Walls don't work": closes and locks door when entering own home, probably has walls in house too - "Ivermectin is horse paste": is actually not good for COVID, but is on the WHO list of essential medicin…

> "Travel bans don't work": supports banning the unvaccinated from traveling to particular establishments, supported preventing anyone from traveling pretty much anywhere during the first lockdown stages last year

The reason travel bans don't work is because we apply them too late and too selectively, because otherwise trade shuts down and we have other issues. A travel ban targeting African countries is not effective when the variant is already spreading on two other continents.

You also cannot ban people from returning to their home country, so there is no way to truly prevent variants landing on the soil of a country with a travel ban.

Establishments requiring vaccines acknowledge that you cannot stop the spread of the virus but require you take some minimal steps to reduce the risk profile.

They are not the same thing.

>- "Walls don't work": closes and locks door when entering own home, probably has walls in house too

Doors and windows will not stop a motivated person from entering your home. Neither does a wall.

People crossing the border illegally are motivated people, and a wall would not stop them either.

Doors and locks are there to increase the effort required to break in, which is often a crime of opportunity. Border crossings are not a thing of opportunity.

They are not the same thing.

> "Ivermectin is horse paste"

While I'm sure some people do not understand that Ivermectin is more than just horse paste, this largely has come out of people literally buying it in horse paste form from Tractor Supply and taking it because they think it will help with CV19. If someone is dealing with a parasitic infection then we should not mock them for taking ivermectin, but that has not been the context for 99.999% of all ivermectin related discussion over the past year.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#293
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a link to a real actual science study that used tuberculosis-sized particles and found filtration efficiencies of 99.5% or higher by N95 masks. Which isn't minor. It's been over a year. If you're not using an N95, you're doing yourself and those around you a disservice. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9487666/

That's nice, but filtration efficiency =/= real-world efficiency. Unless you plan on super-glueing mask fabric to everyone's face holes, of course. Also, last time I checked, most people aren't wearing N95 masks. Probably because they're annoying and difficult to wear. > Which isn't minor. It's been over a year. If you're not using an N95, you're doing yourself and those around you a disservice. I am vaccinated. Whic…

Feels like you’re slinging a lot of assertions without substantive evidence, seemingly asking people to “Google that for you”.

Among other things, vaccinated persons can and do contract, carry, and spread, during which a decent* mask does do its thing.

And who doesn’t wear an N95 class mask? I see about 2/3rds N95, KN95, or KF94s, 1/3 useless masks, appearing to be mostly correlated along economic lines ($2/masks vs. $0.50/masks).

PS. This is bigger than “fractions of a percent”:

https://jdrampage.org/real-world-covid-mask-trial-proves-mas...

* This shows lame mask are lame:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32512240/

Put those two concepts together, you get humdinger models suggesting:

“… if only around half of the population opted to wear respirator-type masks from the beginning of the pandemic, COVID-19 would have failed to establish in the United States.”

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.210699

(Would have needed closer to 2/3 with those sneeze guard ’surgical’ masks.)

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#294

> We know that B.1.1.529 is not a “Delta plus” variant. The figure below shows a really long line, with no previous Delta ancestors. So this likely means it mutated over time in one, likely immunocompromised, individual (see my P.S. note at the end of the post). How does that work ? Virus mutate inside the host until either death or the immune system stops it ? Why is the absence of selective pressure producing a vir…

First detected in Botswana, where apparently 20% of the population is HIV+.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#295
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand the recent celebrating of Florida’s COVID performance — in September, after vaccinations and treatment options were widely available, Florida was losing more than 300 people per day to COVID. They went from ~25th in the nation for COVID Deaths per capita to 8th worst since the pandemic started. That “just surviving” came at a huge cost of lives.

After the vaccine was available it was mostly unvaccinated dying. It's called freedom.

With any vaccine, there are people who

1. Can't access the vaccine, 2. Can't take it for medical reasons 3. Who are scared/skeptical of getting it due to misinformation (often spread by those in power). Florida could have pushed for higher vaccination rates, but mainstreamed misinformation and skepticism instead

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#296
post #203
post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We cannot do the science, because such a randomized test would be deeply unethical. Compare to having pregnant women smoke cigarettes to study effect on the fetus. You do this only afterwards with observational data. Next to politization there is also public health, which is more of a management science than an emperical science. And economic concerns. From all the data worldwide, you only reduce risk of hospitalizat…

> We cannot do the science, because such a randomized test would be deeply unethical. Thank you for perfectly illustrating the problem. I was actually sort of worried that people wouldn't take me seriously when I said that science has become so political that we actually can't do any . It sounds conspiratorial, doesn't it? But, alas: 1) I post results of RCTs showing that masks do little, if anything. 2) Someone repl…

And yet, it’s been done:

In a First, Randomized Study Shows That Masks Reduce COVID-19 Infections

A large study co-authored by Yale SOM’s Jason Abaluck and Mushfiq Mobarak tested the effectiveness of a mask-promotion program in Bangladesh in increasing mask use and preventing symptomatic infections. The study found that masks significantly lower symptomatic infections, especially among older people and when surgical masks [instead of cloth] are used.

https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/in-first-randomized-s...

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#297

Does anybody think these variants will ever stop? I hate, __hate__ this constant fear of a lockdown. Hell, a good part of europe is in lockdown right now. I get that the lockdown is being haphazardly enforce for those countries who've decided on it but I dislike these even being rules on the books. Leave me the hell alone! If we couldn't overcome it after a year of lockdowns, why is this gonna be the time it changes?…

Mutagenesis will continue as long as there are viruses making more viruses.

If I had to guess our future, COVID will become endemic but with less potency. We will manage it with vaccines and anti-virals.

Lockdowns and restrictions? Frankly, I don't think business will allow it, particularly given how hard it is to demonstrate their efficacy (we can't look at the parallel universe where restrictions weren't imposed by a nation).

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people aren’t wearing N95s, and to my understanding, no jurisdiction has a mask policy that requires them.

In the US, you can hardly get them. Amazon was restricting them to medical professionals until recently, and all the local stores have been out of stock since spring 2020. Now, if you currently look at Amazon for 3M N95, you'll see that a lot of the purchasers are doubtful that the products offered are genuine. We've had two years to increase the output of N95s and expand the hospital facilities to handle severe COVI…

McMaster now has them for unrestricted purchase.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#299
With 32 mutations spread out over the ~1300 base pair spike protein, we're approaching the point where antibody resistance will be an issue. But knowing how our bureaucracy works, there is basically zero chance they'll update the vaccine to target omicron (which is very likely to become the dominant variant within a few months).

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#300
post #259

FYI, slight correction: it’s been classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) now and has the name Omicron, not Nu: https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-o...

Yay, it got classified with an interesting name. No, another goddamn variant.

I know it’s from the Greek alphabet, but yeah, they shouldn’t have used “Nu” - homophones cause all kinds of confusion.

-----

Patient: “Give it to me straight doc, what have I got?”

Doctor: “you have a case of the Nu variant of Covid.”

Patient: “yeah, but what is it? What’s it called?”

Doctor: “the Nu variant”

Patient: “yes, but WHAT IS IT NAMED?!”

Doctor: “I’VE TOLD YOU ALREADY!”

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