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Omicron Variant: Early Analysis

thezvi.substack.com

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Re: Omicron Variant: Early Analysis

#21

Post by estaseuropano »

fizzyfizz wrote: post #10

I'm sure this person means well, and is very intelligent, but I stopped reading at the byline. I went and found what this person's expertise actually is. Zvi Mowshowitz is a former professional Magic: The Gathering player who also held a developer intern position at Wizards of the Coast Magic R&D. He is known for having created innovative and sometimes game-breaking decks TurboZvi and My Fires. Now, there is a balanc…

The whole article is a ln unreasonably self confident assemblance of either obvious/common sense points or facts grabbed together by other sources (most twitter) with some witty comments.

Not worth reading, except for the tweets embedded.

Re: Omicron Variant: Early Analysis

#22

Post by nojito »

mrjangles wrote: post #17

I feel like we are doing this to ourselves. All the lockdowns are breeding viruses which are stronger and more infectious than ever. The way viruses normally work is that they evolve to be less deadly over time, and this evolution happens quite quickly. The less deadly strains spread quicker (because carriers aren't walled up in bed), and by the time the deadly strains get to people, they already have partial immunit…

>All the lockdowns are breeding viruses which are stronger and more infectious than ever.

Not sure you where you got this from, but this variant came from a region with subpar vaccination rates.

>The way viruses normally work is that they evolve to be less deadly over time, and this evolution happens quite quickly. The less deadly strains spread quicker (because carriers aren't walled up in bed), and by the time the deadly strains get to people, they already have partial immunity after catching the less deadly strains.

Also very incorrect. Delta has a higher hospitalization rates than other variants

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

Re: Omicron Variant: Early Analysis

#24

Post by Quarrelsome »

estaseuropano wrote: post #21
fizzyfizz wrote: post #10

I'm sure this person means well, and is very intelligent, but I stopped reading at the byline. I went and found what this person's expertise actually is. Zvi Mowshowitz is a former professional Magic: The Gathering player who also held a developer intern position at Wizards of the Coast Magic R&D. He is known for having created innovative and sometimes game-breaking decks TurboZvi and My Fires. Now, there is a balanc…

The whole article is a ln unreasonably self confident assemblance of either obvious/common sense points or facts grabbed together by other sources (most twitter) with some witty comments. Not worth reading, except for the tweets embedded.

> except for the tweets embedded.

but I would never have read those tweets were it not for the article. Does that make it worth reading?

Re: Omicron Variant: Early Analysis

#25

Post by layer8 »

marcod wrote: post #8
R0b0t1 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems reasonable to skip Nu to avoid miscommunication. Maybe overthinking it a little.

Hey, only 8 variants left until we are done with this shit! Pi, Rho, Sigma, Tau, Upsilon, Phi, Chi, Psi, Omega Right?!?!

Then aleph is next.

Re: Omicron Variant: Early Analysis

#26

Post by jefftk »

fizzyfizz wrote: post #10

I'm sure this person means well, and is very intelligent, but I stopped reading at the byline. I went and found what this person's expertise actually is. Zvi Mowshowitz is a former professional Magic: The Gathering player who also held a developer intern position at Wizards of the Coast Magic R&D. He is known for having created innovative and sometimes game-breaking decks TurboZvi and My Fires. Now, there is a balanc…

Zvi has been blogging approximately weekly about covid since the beginning, and has a very good track record.

Look through some of his posts and see how they've held up? https://thezvi.wordpress.com/?s=covid

(On credentials, it looks to me like you ended up with his credentials specifically in the context of game design? He's also worked as a trader, which is some practice at turning unclear information coming out in real time into good concrete predictions.)

Re: Omicron Variant: Early Analysis

#27

Post by zerobits »

Here's an attempt at a summary of this article:

· Became dominant strain in South Africa in like a week (way faster than Delta). Must be either a superspreader event, much more transmissible, or much more evasive of antibodies.

· No real data on that cause, and no evidence for increased lethality. Will find out in next 1-2 weeks probably. Decent chance this becomes dominant worldwide and US soon, but not clear if that will be a problem or not.

· The one worrying data we know is the variant has a lot more mutations than other variants, which would make it likely to evade vaccine/antibody treatments – but not necessarily the other kinds of treatments.

· WHO not recommending countries to limit travel. Also problematic that vaccines aren't updating for new variants, and good chance FDA will be the bottleneck there.

Re: Omicron Variant: Early Analysis

#28

Post by [deleted] »

sofixa wrote: post #16

> ... but the WHO hates both efficiency and fun even more than it hates freedom, it seems. Sad Can someone clarify this part for me please? I find it incredibly hard to trust an author who starts a supposedly serious article with such sensationalist bullshit.

[deleted]

Re: Omicron Variant: Early Analysis

#29

Post by mrjangles »

nojito wrote: post #22
mrjangles wrote: post #17

I feel like we are doing this to ourselves. All the lockdowns are breeding viruses which are stronger and more infectious than ever. The way viruses normally work is that they evolve to be less deadly over time, and this evolution happens quite quickly. The less deadly strains spread quicker (because carriers aren't walled up in bed), and by the time the deadly strains get to people, they already have partial immunit…

>All the lockdowns are breeding viruses which are stronger and more infectious than ever. Not sure you where you got this from, but this variant came from a region with subpar vaccination rates. >The way viruses normally work is that they evolve to be less deadly over time, and this evolution happens quite quickly. The less deadly strains spread quicker (because carriers aren't walled up in bed), and by the time the…

I feel like you really need to reread my comment. Nothing you wrote is related to anything I said.

>Not sure you where you got this from, but this variant came from a region with subpar vaccination rates.

I never said anything about vaccinations.

>Delta has a higher hospitalization rates than other variants

yes that's what I said. We are breeding stronger viruses.

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