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Omicron Variant: Early Analysis

thezvi.substack.com

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Re: Omicron Variant: Early Analysis

#11

Post by Waterluvian »

ThePinion wrote: post #6
sdoering wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the article: > I was almost finished with this post when the WHO decided to go with Omicron instead of Nu (or even Xi) and then I had to go through and replace Nu with Omicron about 25 times. We could have just said ‘the Nu variant’ a lot but the WHO hates both efficiency and fun even more than it hates freedom, it seems. Sad.

Funny how they skipped "Xi" Wimps.

No. It’s sensible to. This isn’t a subject to get all edgy and political over. Just avoid any obvious touchy symbols given the symbols are entirely interchangeable.

If there was a letter sharing a name with any current political leader I’m sure they’d do the same.

Re: Omicron Variant: Early Analysis

#12

Post by 542458 »

fizzyfizz wrote: post #10

I'm sure this person means well, and is very intelligent, but I stopped reading at the byline. I went and found what this person's expertise actually is. Zvi Mowshowitz is a former professional Magic: The Gathering player who also held a developer intern position at Wizards of the Coast Magic R&D. He is known for having created innovative and sometimes game-breaking decks TurboZvi and My Fires. Now, there is a balanc…

Especially when his conclusion gets into him predicting specific percent chances of things happening… I know he slapped a disclaimer around it, but that still feels more than a bit irresponsible. This really feels like a “wait for the experts” moment.

Edit: I don’t think the parent comment deserved to be flag killed. It’s entirely legitimate to point out that the author is not an epidemiologist or biologist or any other relevant -ist, and that early on you often need the domain experience to sift hype or panic from actual data. This is doubly true given the somewhat sensational tone here (“we’re f**ed”).

Re: Omicron Variant: Early Analysis

#16

Post by sofixa »

> ... but the WHO hates both efficiency and fun even more than it hates freedom, it seems. Sad

Can someone clarify this part for me please? I find it incredibly hard to trust an author who starts a supposedly serious article with such sensationalist bullshit.

Re: Omicron Variant: Early Analysis

#17

Post by mrjangles »

I feel like we are doing this to ourselves. All the lockdowns are breeding viruses which are stronger and more infectious than ever.

The way viruses normally work is that they evolve to be less deadly over time, and this evolution happens quite quickly. The less deadly strains spread quicker (because carriers aren't walled up in bed), and by the time the deadly strains get to people, they already have partial immunity after catching the less deadly strains.

Anyway, something has clearly changed. Coronaviruses have been around since forever, now we are getting more and more super spreaders appearing, seemingly, out of nowhere. As far as I can tell, the only thing that is different now than in the past that could be causing this is the lockdowns.

Re: Omicron Variant: Early Analysis

#18

Post by chillacy »

542458 wrote: post #12
fizzyfizz wrote: post #10

I'm sure this person means well, and is very intelligent, but I stopped reading at the byline. I went and found what this person's expertise actually is. Zvi Mowshowitz is a former professional Magic: The Gathering player who also held a developer intern position at Wizards of the Coast Magic R&D. He is known for having created innovative and sometimes game-breaking decks TurboZvi and My Fires. Now, there is a balanc…

Especially when his conclusion gets into him predicting specific percent chances of things happening… I know he slapped a disclaimer around it, but that still feels more than a bit irresponsible. This really feels like a “wait for the experts” moment. Edit: I don’t think the parent comment deserved to be flag killed. It’s entirely legitimate to point out that the author is not an epidemiologist or biologist or any ot…

The author could be practicing a superforecasting exercise of coming up with probability estimates and grading them at the end of the year to calibrate, but this author doesn't show his work as to where these estimates come from.

For example:

> In hindsight the 70% prediction was somewhat overconfident, and a prediction of about 45% would have been better

That's a huge post-hoc adjustment, what factors were important? Just because a p70 event does not occur does not mean that it did not warrant a p70 at the time.

Re: Omicron Variant: Early Analysis

#20

Post by estaseuropano »

h2odragon wrote: post #2

Wow that's amazing coverage and will be a great resource someday for seeing how the news and the policy happened over the course of today. Thus far. Excellent work.

It seems to me a rather random selection of info, the only real insight comes from the Twitter threads quoted.
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