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New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

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Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#31

Post by actually_a_dog »

timr wrote: post #24
soperj wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2021/09/surgical-mask... There's one from Stanford & Yale that says they do.

Read the study, not a press release. It said quite explicitly that cloth masks had no effect , and surgical masks had an extremely minor overall effect (11.3% reduction in symptomatic seroprevalence), with an absolute effect size of 0.09%: https://www.poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/publicati...

11.3% reduction in the base of an exponential process is huge.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#32

Post by bradlys »

actually_a_dog wrote: post #14
gfodor wrote: post #3

> Travel bans are not evidence-based: It may seem like travel bans for individual countries are a necessary step, but I cannot stress enough that they do not work. This one point compromised the article for me. The standard for “working”, like all measures, is to slow down the spread. We all know travel bans got a bad name because you-know-who proposed them. But all countries imposed travel bans and we ought to be co…

I agree with about 95% of this, but, I don't think "travel bans got a bad name because you-know-who proposed them." I think they got a bad name because you-know-who proposed them previously, targeting countries with you-know-what religion, for a political reason. Had it been just "we're going to reduce air traffic into the country to slow the spread of the virus," I don't think that would have been terribly controver…

Yeah, people forget the muslim ban happened before COVID.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#33

Post by busymom0 »

miohtama wrote: post #4
bingohbangoh wrote: post #2

Does anybody think these variants will ever stop? I hate, __hate__ this constant fear of a lockdown. Hell, a good part of europe is in lockdown right now. I get that the lockdown is being haphazardly enforce for those countries who've decided on it but I dislike these even being rules on the books. Leave me the hell alone! If we couldn't overcome it after a year of lockdowns, why is this gonna be the time it changes?…

> Does anybody think these variants will ever stop? We have managed to clear out measles, so we should be able to stop COVID as well with high enough vaccination rates. Although this is not apples-to-apples comparison. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measles_vaccine

Measles is a VERY different virus than COVID and even flu.

> The surface proteins that the measles virus uses to enter cells are ineffective if they suffer any mutation, meaning that any changes to the virus come at a major cost.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/05/150521133628.h...

Since the COVID shots doesn't prevent catching and transmitting the virus, at least the current shots aren't going to achieve herd immunity / get rid of COVID.

AstraZeneca vaccine's lead researcher and head of the Oxford Vaccine Group, Andrew Pollard, stated that the "idea of achieving herd immunity is mythical" and "not a possibility" because "vaccinated people can still be infected and transmit the virus". He also warned against making any vaccination policies and programs based on the idea of herd immunity because the virus may mutate to an even more transmissible variant among vaccinated populations.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/12/herd-immunity-is-mythical-wi...

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#34

Post by threatripper »

elzbardico wrote: post #5

The correct title should be “New variant of concern” Not “New concerning variant” To keep with usual terminology

For me this new variant of concern is quite concerning unlike some other variants of concern that don't concern me much in the country where I reside.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#35

Post by timr »

actually_a_dog wrote: post #31
timr wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Read the study, not a press release. It said quite explicitly that cloth masks had no effect , and surgical masks had an extremely minor overall effect (11.3% reduction in symptomatic seroprevalence), with an absolute effect size of 0.09%: https://www.poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/publicati...

11.3% reduction in the base of an exponential process is huge .

Sure, but that is not what the study said, and not at all what the observed difference means.

They found a tiny effect in symptomatic seroprevalence at a single point in time.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#36

Post by dnautics »

mellavora wrote: post #22
splittingTimes wrote: post #13

For a fully waxed person, Would it make sense to try to get infected by Delta to build more immunity to fight off that omicron thing? With so many significant variations on the spike protein the vaccines will be no help..

vaxed or waxed, no. That's not how immunity works.

Not really, we just don't know, and it could legitimately go either way.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#37

Post by sbierwagen »

gfodor wrote: post #3

> Travel bans are not evidence-based: It may seem like travel bans for individual countries are a necessary step, but I cannot stress enough that they do not work. This one point compromised the article for me. The standard for “working”, like all measures, is to slow down the spread. We all know travel bans got a bad name because you-know-who proposed them. But all countries imposed travel bans and we ought to be co…

From the article:

>A travel ban is not an evidence-based solution unless you stop all travel from every country.

Okay, why not do that? China's done it. Vietnam, Australia and New Zealand require a week+ quarantine for international travelers. It obviously works: it stopped two Omicron carriers at the border in Hong Kong. Why not do that?

If COVID-19 is such a serious threat that it requires shutting down all schools for more than a year, why not take the comparatively minor step of halting or drastically limiting international travel?

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#39

Post by scohesc »

Denvercoder9 wrote: post #8
bingohbangoh wrote: post #2

Does anybody think these variants will ever stop? I hate, __hate__ this constant fear of a lockdown. Hell, a good part of europe is in lockdown right now. I get that the lockdown is being haphazardly enforce for those countries who've decided on it but I dislike these even being rules on the books. Leave me the hell alone! If we couldn't overcome it after a year of lockdowns, why is this gonna be the time it changes?…

> Leave me the hell alone! As long as that makes essential things such as grocery shopping more dangerous for others, such as myself, no.

When you can prove in a court of law that person "x" infected person "y" at "Z" date/time - then you can say this with even a minimal level of confidence.

Don't want to get sick? Order groceries online and have them delivered to your door.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#40

Post by timr »

Kkoala wrote: post #25
timr wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, we ought to be evidence-based about everything we have done: travel bans, masks, respirators, distancing, plexiglass, closing businesses, forcing healthy kids to wear masks in schools, forcing everyone to get vaccinated, rubber gloves in the grocery store. All of it. So far, our track record isn't that great. The two RCTs for masks and Covid showed minimal (if not zero) effect [1], and you can barely say the res…

It's pretty clear at this point that restrictions and masks help reduce the spread. Of course it's another question how does that balance out in the longer term, e.g. how did the lockdowns affect the economy, or the mental and physical healtht of people.

Is it? Cite the evidence. Editorials and commentaries don't count.

All of the good evidence (RCTs) on masks is extremely marginal, at best, and there hasn't been a single RCT I'm aware of that showed any effect of the other interventions.

https://vinayprasadmdmph.substack.com/p/do-masks-reduce-risk...

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