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The Handwavy Technobabble Nothingburger of Crypto

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Re: The Handwavy Technobabble Nothingburger of Crypto

#341

Post by kbenson »

thinkmassive wrote: post #122
soco wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For some reason all ransoms are requested in cryptocurrencies as of late. There must be a reason, hmm...

" as mainstream adoption of cryptocurrency has grown, the percentage of transactions used to promote or conceal crime has also decreased." - FinCEN Chief Digital Currency Advisor, Michele Korver https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2021/07/06/fincen-hires-doj-...

That is entirely consistent with a few possible (and I would say likely) explanations that include cryptocurrency being beneficial for crime. I'll cover one below.

If crime accounts for some small percentage of financial transactions (we'll say 1% to make it easy, even if that's very unlikely), and those transactions migrate to cryptocurrency first, then what you'll see is a very high percentage of crime in cryptocurrencies, that then drops as the much larger normal transaction flow shifts, even the total amount of crime transactions might be stable or even increasing (as we're talking about percentages of a whole, normal transaction traffic and would have to be shifting very slowly and crime increasing extremely fast for us to see anything else).

Re: The Handwavy Technobabble Nothingburger of Crypto

#342

Post by ineptech »

llimos wrote: post #301

Most people on HN are rational people who look at the world in a rational way. Bitcoin and friends are not operating in a rational market, therefore we don't understand them, and most of us would probably be pretty lousy investors since we would try to make decisions rationally instead of memeing and YOLOing. But, and this is a key point, that doesn't make us right and them wrong . It's just a different kind of marke…

The anti-crypto case is not that it's "worse" than some other speculative investment asset (gold, comic books, etc), it's that crypto is a speculative asset, as opposed to the things it's sometimes claimed to be (e.g. currency, a new way to do finance, etc).

Re: The Handwavy Technobabble Nothingburger of Crypto

#344

Post by koonsolo »

llimos wrote: post #301

Most people on HN are rational people who look at the world in a rational way. Bitcoin and friends are not operating in a rational market, therefore we don't understand them, and most of us would probably be pretty lousy investors since we would try to make decisions rationally instead of memeing and YOLOing. But, and this is a key point, that doesn't make us right and them wrong . It's just a different kind of marke…

Sorry, but please speak for yourself.

Plenty of people here see the potential that cryptocurrencies and blockchains can offer.

Let's find out where it takes us, but at this point, we're winning :D.

Re: The Handwavy Technobabble Nothingburger of Crypto

#345

Post by prewett »

rawtxapp wrote: post #275
NoGravitas wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Up to a point, more money printing is good for me: dollars become devalued, my employer has to pay me more of them to keep up with the cost of living, but my mortgage is still valued in 2009 dollars. I can pay it off faster, or just have more purchasing power left over every month after paying it on schedule.

If you have assets and debt (and a job that will actually pay well, keep up with inflation), money printing is awesome for you! If you're in the majority of people who don't have those things, life just gets harder and wealth gap keeps getting larger and larger.

> If you're in the majority of people who don't have those things ...

Home ownership in the US is around 65% [0], so the majority do have an asset and mortgage. There are also some people who choose not to own a house but have other types of assets. Things really aren't as dire as you seem to think.

And for those people who actually are harmed by inflation, I think the consensus is that they would be harmed by the other option--deflation--even more, mostly because the disincentive to invest leads to fewer employment opportunities. The Great Depression, a deflationary environment, was not good times.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home-ownership_in_the_United_S...

Re: The Handwavy Technobabble Nothingburger of Crypto

#346

Post by outside1234 »

rawtxapp wrote: post #336
llimos wrote: post #301

Most people on HN are rational people who look at the world in a rational way. Bitcoin and friends are not operating in a rational market, therefore we don't understand them, and most of us would probably be pretty lousy investors since we would try to make decisions rationally instead of memeing and YOLOing. But, and this is a key point, that doesn't make us right and them wrong . It's just a different kind of marke…

Are you implying that no rational person should ever buy Bitcoin? That seems a bit far-fetched, no? At this point, considering that it's stronger than ever and it's pretty clear it's not going away, I would expect a rational person to allocate even a small percentage to it for diversification, in case they happen to be wrong on their conclusions or understanding of Bitcoin.

There are rational reasons for buying Bitcoin - most of them revolve around money laundering, drug trades, and ransomware.

This is the reason we should enforce "know your customer" laws on Bitcoin such that we have government ID for everyone for every transaction that hits the chain.

Re: The Handwavy Technobabble Nothingburger of Crypto

#347

Post by coralreef »

bildung wrote: post #111
coralreef wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We have one already: cash. Cash is awful if you live in Turkey, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Lebanon, etc. The USD has lost 90% of its purchasing power since the 1950's, meaning cash is toxic over longer time horizons. You cannot have a society where everyone seeks to get rid of the reserve asset over time. > If your country turns into a full-out surveillance state, you are not going to overthrow it by buying things with B…

> The USD has lost 90% of its purchasing power since the 1950's That's a meaningless number without context: The median income gain was 2000% (i.e. double the purchasing power loss) during the same period (median yearly family income was $3300 in 1950 https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1952/demo/p60-00... )

Yes, money creation pushed wages up as it did costs. And gains from technology resulted in real wealth increases for society in general.

However, holding the asset itself resulted in loss of buying power over time. There is a distinction between cash the asset (the thing you hold and trade with), and income.

Holding shares in a corporation over 50 years may be a good idea (depending on the company). Holding land/house over 50 years may be a good idea (depending on the location). Holding fiat cash over 50 years is never a good idea.

And the problem is someone in society has to hold it; we can't all own stocks and houses.

Re: The Handwavy Technobabble Nothingburger of Crypto

#348

Post by secondaryacct »

llimos wrote: post #301

Most people on HN are rational people who look at the world in a rational way. Bitcoin and friends are not operating in a rational market, therefore we don't understand them, and most of us would probably be pretty lousy investors since we would try to make decisions rationally instead of memeing and YOLOing. But, and this is a key point, that doesn't make us right and them wrong . It's just a different kind of marke…

Taxpayers, law abiders, hell even environment conscious is who we are to say our way is better.

Re: The Handwavy Technobabble Nothingburger of Crypto

#349

Post by rawtxapp »

outside1234 wrote: post #346
rawtxapp wrote: post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you implying that no rational person should ever buy Bitcoin? That seems a bit far-fetched, no? At this point, considering that it's stronger than ever and it's pretty clear it's not going away, I would expect a rational person to allocate even a small percentage to it for diversification, in case they happen to be wrong on their conclusions or understanding of Bitcoin.

There are rational reasons for buying Bitcoin - most of them revolve around money laundering, drug trades, and ransomware. This is the reason we should enforce "know your customer" laws on Bitcoin such that we have government ID for everyone for every transaction that hits the chain.

> most of them revolve around money laundering, drug trades, and ransomware.

You need a citation for that, because according to experts “In 2020, the illicit share of all cryptocurrency activity fell to just 0.34%,” reported Chainalysis [1].

For many, it's a hedge against inflation, for others it's the next potential global reserve currency, for some it's just a savings mechanism. There are more rational reasons than just crime that you're ignoring.

1: https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en-us/posts/investigation-fra...

Re: The Handwavy Technobabble Nothingburger of Crypto

#350

Post by dsr_ »

wsc981 wrote: post #321
Scarblac wrote: post #38

I wonder how much of the Crypto hype is because the US banking system still lives in the 1980s or thereabouts. If everybody in the US had access to bank accounts with easy electronic transfers within 5 seconds for no charge, no chargebacks and so on, as people are used to in the EU, would people still be excited about Bitcoin?

> If everybody in the US had access to bank accounts with easy electronic transfers within 5 seconds for no charge, no chargebacks and so on, as people are used to in the EU, would people still be excited about Bitcoin? As someone born in the EU (now living in South-East Asia) I am still excited about Bitcoin. Because I feel it's the only safe haven for my honestly earned money out of reach of governments and banks.…

Why do you consider it a safe haven for your money when the volatility is so high?
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