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How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

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Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#241

Post by unanswered »

eqvinox wrote: post #231
HMH wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So even if you're aged 12 to 29, if you don't get vaccinated you're gambling at taking away someone else's hospital bed. Which will doom the rest of us. According to [1] at no point in time since March this year (when they started recording this data) have there been more than 100 hospitalizations in the age group 0-30 in Germany a country with 80+ million inhabitants. If this means doom to all of us I don't know a…

That's a valid argument, I wasn't aware absolute hospitalization numbers … which just leaves the other arguments to get vaccinated. Namely, lesser chance of long-term symptoms and lesser chance of getting infected (last I checked, outbound transmission doesn't seem to be reduced much, but inbound is, so it still serves to slow overall spread.)

So in other words all of the non-debunked reasons for <30 to get vaccinated are all about individual health, and have no impact on anyone else's health.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#242

Post by silent_cal »

titaniczero wrote: post #184
silent_cal wrote: post #158

Why are vaccinated people under 60 are dying at a higher rate than unvaccinated in England? https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/vaccinated-english-adult...

Probably because those rates are from 10 to 60 years, which is quite a broad range. People in their fifties/sixties die like A LOT more than young people and these ages happen to be the most vaccinated compared to the youngest ones. https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/paradox-simpson/ Also, when we are seeing far fewer vaccinated people in hospital in most countries (in my country 70% of the admissions in the hospital…

Then why did this trend only emerge in April? The population of young people being vaccinated has increased since then.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#243

Post by silent_cal »

Pyramus wrote: post #195
silent_cal wrote: post #158

Why are vaccinated people under 60 are dying at a higher rate than unvaccinated in England? https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/vaccinated-english-adult...

Your link also provides the likely answer when you scroll down to the comments: > One reason not to draw too much of a conclusion is that 10 to 59 is a really, really broad age group, and the underlying death rate at the top of that group will be much higher than at the bottom. > If the vaccination is also unevenly distributed in that group (and you would imagine the vaccination rate to be much lower among 10 year-ol…

Then why did this trend only emerge in April? The population of young people being vaccinated has increased since then.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#244

Post by silent_cal »

petmon wrote: post #165
silent_cal wrote: post #158

Why are vaccinated people under 60 are dying at a higher rate than unvaccinated in England? https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/vaccinated-english-adult...

Probably Simpson's Paradox. A 59 year old is both more likely to be vaccinated and to die from any cause, compared to a 10 year old.

Then why did this trend only emerge in April? The population of young people being vaccinated has increased since then.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#245

Post by ryandrake »

nradov wrote: post #111
rob74 wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that vaccination protects you from having a bad case of Covid, but it doesn't protect you from getting infected and infecting others. So, if the vaccinated carry on as if it's 2019, the disease will jump from one vaccinated person to the next until it finds an unvaccinated person.

I encourage everyone eligible to get vaccinated, but since the virus is now endemic everyone will eventually be exposed. You can't seriously expect people to tolerate restrictions indefinitely.

> You can't seriously expect people to tolerate restrictions indefinitely.

Honest question: Why not?

2019 is not some magical single gold standard Right Amount Of Personal Freedom. Behaviors become subject to restriction all the time (and also some other restrictions become lax or disappear over time). Taboos come and go. Society changes and the set of acceptable behaviors can also change with time.

I remember similar arguments being used back when seat belt laws were introduced. "I'll never wear those things!" "They wrinkle my clothing!" "They're tyranny!" "People will not tolerate making them mandatory!" But... now we do tolerate it. Same with anti-smoking laws. Society is very flexible and capable of changing.

There are a lot of dangerous things that were regularly done in the past, but are now forbidden, or even taboo. I don't see why things like masks, distancing, and limits to indoor occupancy are un-changeable special cases.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#246

Post by s1artibartfast »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #222
oceanplexian wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, however the obvious answer is that society should then build more hospitals and train more nurses, the same way that China did in 2020. Not plunge the economy into debt and force millions of people to change their behavior because of a broken system.

> the obvious answer is that society [ ... ] Nobody could even get society to do basic pandemic stuff like wear masks or take vaccines. How would they ever coordinate "build more hospitals and train more nurses" ? Also, what is this "society" you speak of? There are very very few hospital facilities in the USA built as public institutions, or even with (much) public funding. That's now how things work in capitalism.

>Nobody could even get society to do basic pandemic stuff like wear masks or take vaccines. How would they ever coordinate "build more hospitals and train more nurses"

The answer is pretty simple. You don't need mass coordination to build more hospitals.

It requires 1 person (the president) to agree to build emergency hospitals, or at worst 51% of 535 people in congress.

Compare this to requiring 330 million people to continually agree and coordinate basic pandemic behavior like masks and vaccines.

There are less than 1000 covid ICU patients in California today and 12,000 in the entire country. China built a 1000 bed covid hospital in 10 days and staffed it with army nurses.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#247

Post by dragonwriter »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #246
PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the obvious answer is that society [ ... ] Nobody could even get society to do basic pandemic stuff like wear masks or take vaccines. How would they ever coordinate "build more hospitals and train more nurses" ? Also, what is this "society" you speak of? There are very very few hospital facilities in the USA built as public institutions, or even with (much) public funding. That's now how things work in capitalism.

>Nobody could even get society to do basic pandemic stuff like wear masks or take vaccines. How would they ever coordinate "build more hospitals and train more nurses" The answer is pretty simple. You don't need mass coordination to build more hospitals. It requires 1 person (the president) to agree to build emergency hospitals, or at worst 51% of 535 people in congress. Compare this to requiring 330 million people t…

> It requires 1 person (the president) to agree to build emergency hospitals, or at worst 51% of 535 people in congress.

At worst, it takes 60% of the Senate (because cloture), 218/435 in the House, plus the President to pass the law to do it federally, and then someone invokes the judiciary via lawsuits over federal authorities (“building hospitals is not an enumerated power”).

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#248

Post by s1artibartfast »

salamandersauce wrote: post #240
oceanplexian wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, however the obvious answer is that society should then build more hospitals and train more nurses, the same way that China did in 2020. Not plunge the economy into debt and force millions of people to change their behavior because of a broken system.

Oh OK. How many years will that take? You can't just staff these new hospitals with just new nurses, you need doctors and other support staff. We have a vaccine now. If everybody just got it when they could we could start to move on without spending millions or billions building new hospitals and paying people to train to become nurses and doctors in half a decade.

China built a 1000 bed covid hospital in 10 days and staffed it with army nurses.

Compare this to requiring 330 million people to continually agree and coordinate basic pandemic behavior like masks and vaccines.

Costs are largely irrelevant. Perhaps 100 million for such a hospital. This is 0.0001% of the 6+ trillion the government has spent on other covid actions.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#249

Post by s1artibartfast »

dragonwriter wrote: post #247
s1artibartfast wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Nobody could even get society to do basic pandemic stuff like wear masks or take vaccines. How would they ever coordinate "build more hospitals and train more nurses" The answer is pretty simple. You don't need mass coordination to build more hospitals. It requires 1 person (the president) to agree to build emergency hospitals, or at worst 51% of 535 people in congress. Compare this to requiring 330 million people t…

> It requires 1 person (the president) to agree to build emergency hospitals, or at worst 51% of 535 people in congress. At worst, it takes 60% of the Senate (because cloture), 218/435 in the House, plus the President to pass the law to do it federally, and then someone invokes the judiciary via lawsuits over federal authorities (“building hospitals is not an enumerated power”).

I think the point still stands.

But if we want to be pedantic, you are assuming a filibuster and controversy.

I think that could be done entirely by executive action, using administrative actions, like 900 billion dollars of other covid spending that had no legislative approval.

I suppose states and governors could sue to have federal hospitals treating their residents torn down in the middle of a pandemic, but that would be terrible PR.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#250

Post by edmundsauto »

thesis wrote: post #154
edmundsauto wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Recently infected people haven't had as much chance to succumb. There are also delays in reporting I believe. I also think your explanation carries much of the effect size, but the timing also matters.

You’re wrong here. It’s not about recently infected. It’s about deaths per day of unvaccinated. If the amount of death among the unvaccinated is going down daily then it is. It has nothing to do with recently infected because at some point some of those people may die next week or the week after and it will be reported then.

If the data reports the date when someone dies, and it takes a couple of days for the death to trickle through the data processing/reporting pipelines, wouldn't that be a lag?
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