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How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

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Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#101

Post by Bud »

steviedotboston wrote: post #32

It really seems like it's safe to say that a fully vaccinated person's risk of dying from covid is low enough where based on the pre-2020 accepted societal standards for risk there should be next to no behavior modification expected.

Sigh.

How many times does this have to be explained before everyone gets it?

It is not all about you. There are other people in the world.

Masks and social distancing protect them, too. In addition, as others have noted in this thread, death is not the only bad result, here. Long covid is horrific, and even milder cases can have permanent health effects that are extremely undesirable.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#102

Post by GDC7 »

zwieback wrote: post #27

The average person (vax or anti-vax) will read this to the end, maybe even understand the numbers but then think "well, but half of COVID deaths are among the vaccinated". 90% of people know that Stats is the hardest math there is and the other 15% don't get it.

Not knowing statistics is a form of protection against depression, sadness and anxiety.

Gotta thank god that the majority of people believe bad stuff doesn't apply to them.

It's a burden for few.

If you want to see society collapse just improve the literacy in statistics

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#103

Post by moosey »

rob74 wrote: post #85
steviedotboston wrote: post #32

It really seems like it's safe to say that a fully vaccinated person's risk of dying from covid is low enough where based on the pre-2020 accepted societal standards for risk there should be next to no behavior modification expected.

The problem is that vaccination protects you from having a bad case of Covid, but it doesn't protect you from getting infected and infecting others. So, if the vaccinated carry on as if it's 2019, the disease will jump from one vaccinated person to the next until it finds an unvaccinated person.

I believe that the proper response to this is to limit the percentage of hospital wards that can be devoted to COVID 19 cases, as the main effect of low vaccination rates is that the hospitals get too full.

And suddenly, I'm not worried anymore, unlike now where the regional hospitals are massively backed up or closed due to low vaccination rates.

My compassion is completely fatigued. All I can think about now is getting back to the gym when my youngest is fully vaccinated.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#104

Post by pengaru »

listless wrote: post #56
encryptluks2 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vaccinated people spread to the rest of the population as well. Don't know why you think vaccination prevents people from spreading COVID-19.

Exactly this. I am double vaxxed Moderna and got it. I was bad sick, but not as bad as my unvaxxed friends who got it. But I’m sure I spread that sucker all over the place. And by the way, the mask made no difference In my case. I’m convinced it’s a fresh N95 everyday or you’re wasting your time.

> the mask made no difference In my case

How can you possibly know such a thing? The mask is more about reducing your spread to others, do you have reliable data on how many people you would have infected in lieu of masking? No, you don't.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#105

Post by the-dude »

elif wrote: post #93
HMH wrote: post #70

Maximum death rate for all age groups with Moderna, which at least according to these plots provides the lowest death rate, is at 0.8/100_000 in August 2021 for all age groups. Maximum death rate for the unvaccinated of age 12-17 is at 0.17/100_000, for age 18-29 it is 0.76/100_000, also in August 2021. So even unvaccinated younger people (age < 30) are better off than the average vaccinated Joe. The thing is, so far…

That perspective is only accurate egocentrically. If you look at population-level epidemiology you will find vaccines inhibit viral spread.

NL is at ~85% vaccinated 12 yrs up. Infections are through the roof.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#106

Post by hirundo »

If a lion is killing the weakest members of your herd it is natural to want to kill the lion. But that victory can be a defeat for the health of herd. I wonder if a scientist in a lab somewhere decided that a disease that takes the old and infirm while sparing the young was a wonderful species of lion, a gift to the herd to be released into the wild.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#107

Post by johndevor »

elif wrote: post #93
HMH wrote: post #70

Maximum death rate for all age groups with Moderna, which at least according to these plots provides the lowest death rate, is at 0.8/100_000 in August 2021 for all age groups. Maximum death rate for the unvaccinated of age 12-17 is at 0.17/100_000, for age 18-29 it is 0.76/100_000, also in August 2021. So even unvaccinated younger people (age < 30) are better off than the average vaccinated Joe. The thing is, so far…

That perspective is only accurate egocentrically. If you look at population-level epidemiology you will find vaccines inhibit viral spread.

> you will find vaccines inhibit viral spread

Is this true? Countries like Singapore and Israel are seeing huge spikes in cases despite having some of the highest vax rates.

My suspicion is that vaccines have the downside of suppressing symptoms, thus making the vaxxed more likely to spread covid without knowing it.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#108

Post by abeppu »

angelzen wrote: post #68
abeppu wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But still, it is worth noting that the peak US vaccinated death rates on those charts (e.g. ~1.47 / 100k for Pfizer) are higher than the current _unvaccinated_ death rate in Chile. Vaccination contribute an order of magnitude decrease in the death rate, but surges can contribute an order of magnitude difference as well, within a country over time or between countries. Vaccines matter a lot, but all the other public h…

The numbers are small and the risk concentrated in the elderly ailing population such that an outbreak in nursing homes can skew the overall numbers one way or another, depending on lack of PCR tests or over-sensitive PCR tests. These numbers are mostly useful for detecting general trends, e.g. are the cases going up or down, what is the O(death risk)?. Strictly comparing different locales is not going to be very inf…

I think your point is valid for e.g. not comparing municipalities.

But comparing countries of tens of millions of people I think is not dominated by noise.

But perhaps a more pointed comparison is the US peak death rate for J&J vaccine recipients was higher than the lowest unvaccinated death rate. That swing happened only from early June to early August. I.e. if you got the J&J shot in early June, you decreased risk by 15 micromorts/wk with that vaccination but in just two months, the surge increased your risk by like 28 micromort/wk.

I don't think that's a statistical fluke; I think the situation really did get materially worse in the US over that period. That proceeded from choices we made as a society.

This winter, our collective choices still have the potential to create impacts which will rival the efficacy of the vaccines.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#109

Post by admax88qqq »

lmilcin wrote: post #63
zwieback wrote: post #27

The average person (vax or anti-vax) will read this to the end, maybe even understand the numbers but then think "well, but half of COVID deaths are among the vaccinated". 90% of people know that Stats is the hardest math there is and the other 15% don't get it.

These days you can't rely even on scientists to interpret results correctly. I see interpretation problems almost every other paper I read that has any non trivial research that involves statistics. Vast majority of people are functional illiterates when it comes to statistics. How you present statistics is more important than what the data actually says.

Fun fact, you probably never could rely on scientists to interpret results correctly.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#110

Post by enchiridion »

jrd259 wrote: post #100
HMH wrote: post #70

Maximum death rate for all age groups with Moderna, which at least according to these plots provides the lowest death rate, is at 0.8/100_000 in August 2021 for all age groups. Maximum death rate for the unvaccinated of age 12-17 is at 0.17/100_000, for age 18-29 it is 0.76/100_000, also in August 2021. So even unvaccinated younger people (age < 30) are better off than the average vaccinated Joe. The thing is, so far…

If you are under 30, it appears your risk of death is low regardless of your status, but you will not forever be under 30, and perhaps you know some over-30 for whom the difference in death rate is important? Even if there's no one you care about who is over 30, to the extent that vaccination also reduces your risk of infecting others, it is polite to your society to be vaccinated. Perhaps you get no great benefit, b…

Does anyone have good stats to share on how vaccination impacts transmission? I’m curious.
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