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Betting on things that never change (2017)

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Re: Betting on things that never change (2017)

#11
post #6

Or as Deming put it: long-term successful organisations need to find their constancy of purpose . Kodak didn't find it: they were in the business of analogue film; they could have been in the business of capturing memories, and survived the digitalisation of photography. Manufacturers of carburetors generally didn't find it; they were in the business of carburetors, and not stochiometric mixtures of air and fuel, and…

This is the premise of the book Start With Why

Re: Betting on things that never change (2017)

#12

>Take three companies in the 1990s: Sears, Beenz, and Amazon. >Sears bet the Internet changed nothing, to its detriment. Beenz bet the Internet changed everything – creating a points-based currency valid only at online merchants – to its detriment. Amazon bet the Internet changed distribution, but rooted its strategy in things that have never, and will never, change. It nailed the center of the Venn diagram of change…

It's hard to make a perfect analogy, some potentials:

* Computer companies that bet Cloud changed nothing (HP, IBM) * Oil companies that bet solar/wind changed nothing (Chevron, Exxon) * Car companies that bet electric changed nothing (Fiat?)

Re: Betting on things that never change (2017)

#13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, you've done a nice job of restating the article, actually. It claims that all seemingly revolutionary businesses were not successful because of the things that change (like technology solutions e.g., "finding things", "communication", "compute infrastructure" etc) but on the same unchanging principles (e.g., business opportunities and strategies). TFA / TL;DR: In the last 100 years we’ve gone from horses to jet…

Then I've done a bad job communicating what I meant. My point is, (virtually) every single product can make the claim they are making a bet on something that doesn't change. Both good and bad products. Failed and successful. The entire article says nothing of practical value. Everyone is betting on something that doesn't change and something which does.

It's not about products (business tactics). It's about business philosophy and business strategy.

Re: Betting on things that never change (2017)

#14
post #6

Or as Deming put it: long-term successful organisations need to find their constancy of purpose . Kodak didn't find it: they were in the business of analogue film; they could have been in the business of capturing memories, and survived the digitalisation of photography. Manufacturers of carburetors generally didn't find it; they were in the business of carburetors, and not stochiometric mixtures of air and fuel, and…

This is.. a weird spin. Kodak is a great long-term success story. Businesses aren't forever. If Kodak was in the "business of capturing memories", what would they have done differently?

If Kodak was in the "business of capturing memories", they wouldn't have dropped the technology for digital cameras. They wouldn't have been afraid of their own new tech (Kodak had digital camera technology in the early 70s) cannibalizing old tech (film), and instead invested in that segment.

They wasted something like 25 years dragging their heels because they didn't realize that people don't use film because film is somehow magic. They use it to capture memories. Kodak missed that boat, spectacularly, because they believed they were in the film business. Their answer to digital, for a long time, was "let's market film harder"

(Sidebar: For somebody from outside the US, 100 years is at best a mid-term success story. )

Re: Betting on things that never change (2017)

#15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, you've done a nice job of restating the article, actually. It claims that all seemingly revolutionary businesses were not successful because of the things that change (like technology solutions e.g., "finding things", "communication", "compute infrastructure" etc) but on the same unchanging principles (e.g., business opportunities and strategies). TFA / TL;DR: In the last 100 years we’ve gone from horses to jet…

Then I've done a bad job communicating what I meant. My point is, (virtually) every single product can make the claim they are making a bet on something that doesn't change. Both good and bad products. Failed and successful. The entire article says nothing of practical value. Everyone is betting on something that doesn't change and something which does.

[deleted]

Re: Betting on things that never change (2017)

#16

Seems like a nice sounding narrative that doesn't really hold water, at least from a practical perspective. Twitter, Facebook, Twitch, AWS, Google Search and a lot of others - they were in fields changing all the time. Unless you define these very abstractly as "communication", "socializing", "entertainment", "compute infrastructure" and "finding things" and say "these things don't change in that they continue to hap…

Well, you've done a nice job of restating the article, actually. It claims that all seemingly revolutionary businesses were not successful because of the things that change (like technology solutions e.g., "finding things", "communication", "compute infrastructure" etc) but on the same unchanging principles (e.g., business opportunities and strategies). TFA / TL;DR: In the last 100 years we’ve gone from horses to jet…

Very few of these things seem to have gotten better overall, so I’d say that most of these companies have failed, as has the overall strategy.

Re: Betting on things that never change (2017)

#17
post #6

Or as Deming put it: long-term successful organisations need to find their constancy of purpose . Kodak didn't find it: they were in the business of analogue film; they could have been in the business of capturing memories, and survived the digitalisation of photography. Manufacturers of carburetors generally didn't find it; they were in the business of carburetors, and not stochiometric mixtures of air and fuel, and…

But people in Kodak got that, which is why they invented the digital camera. They didn't execute well. Transitions are tough.

Re: Betting on things that never change (2017)

#18
> Or, “I love Amazon, I just wish you’d deliver a little slower.” Impossible.

Not entirely impossible ;-). Amazon now offers the option of having your orders bundled up and delivered on a set day each week to save on trips. However, in my experience, they are quite bad at it and subset of the items will arrive "too fast" a day early.

Re: Betting on things that never change (2017)

#19
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is.. a weird spin. Kodak is a great long-term success story. Businesses aren't forever. If Kodak was in the "business of capturing memories", what would they have done differently?

If Kodak was in the "business of capturing memories", they wouldn't have dropped the technology for digital cameras. They wouldn't have been afraid of their own new tech (Kodak had digital camera technology in the early 70s) cannibalizing old tech (film), and instead invested in that segment. They wasted something like 25 years dragging their heels because they didn't realize that people don't use film because film i…

So they would have invested a lot in digital cameras, executed well(?) and gone bankrupt. Mobile phones ended up eating cameras for all but very niche uses.

Re: Betting on things that never change (2017)

#20
post #17
post #6

Or as Deming put it: long-term successful organisations need to find their constancy of purpose . Kodak didn't find it: they were in the business of analogue film; they could have been in the business of capturing memories, and survived the digitalisation of photography. Manufacturers of carburetors generally didn't find it; they were in the business of carburetors, and not stochiometric mixtures of air and fuel, and…

But people in Kodak got that, which is why they invented the digital camera. They didn't execute well. Transitions are tough.

Even if they executed well they would have been toast, it just would have taken another 10(?) years.
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