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Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#241

Post by nicbou »

bythckr wrote: post #232
uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

> - The "lie-flat" movement massively picks up. This is a serious symptom that is being swept under the rug. Efforts needs to be put in to better understand the issue and enforce steps to resolve it. I lack the basic training in trying to understand the issue - sociology, psychology or whatever is the relevant field. But I feel that "lie-flat" is just an acute variant of the general issue - "checking out of reality".…

Does it need solving? If you support yourself and enjoy your current lifestyle, keep going!

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#242

Post by nicbou »

Politics: The environment will get a bigger slice of the political discussion, but nothing major will come out of it. North America will put everything on electric cars while neglecting everything else. Europe will do a lot more. The rest of the world won't do anything.

COVID: Governments will tighten the screws on unvaccinated people and nudge them agressively towards vaccination or isolation. It will make some people uneasy, and others will cheer for it.

Entertainment: Adam Driver will be cast in every blockbuster, sometimes more than once.

Technology: Big tech will build more of their own chips, mostly ARM chips. The Metaverse will fail to excite the crowd. The EU will isssue billion dollar antitrust fines.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#244

Post by mg »

jstx1 wrote: post #199
mg wrote: post #21

I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla gets their self driving software to a human level within the next 5 years. And that this will be a huge wake-up call for mankind. To think about the future in the face of AI. I often watch videos of people who drive with FSD for the first time. Those are the most intense reactions to a product I can remember. If one day we wake up and see self driving cars all around us, we will start…

You could have made the same prediction for the past 6-7 years and you would have been wrong every time. Sure, it might happen some day but I don't know why 2022 should be different from 2021.

I have worked on some hard engineering problems in my life, where one could not have been sure if it is possible to find a solution. In my experience, when you get to a "From here on it is just more of the same" situation, that is a strong indicator that a solution will be found in the near future.

And that is the feeling I get when I watch FSD videos these days.

5 years ago, people were celebrating lane changes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7jNHFwZ3Ec

Nowadays, FSD drives through all kinds of weird scenarios:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LISLFHCPWrw

And people complain about specific situations FSD can not handle:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OT2H42k7Z1g

I'm pretty sure someone at Tesla sees this and thinks "Hmm.. we can solve this in a similar way we solved lane changes".

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#245

Post by [deleted] »

jstx1 wrote: post #199
mg wrote: post #21

I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla gets their self driving software to a human level within the next 5 years. And that this will be a huge wake-up call for mankind. To think about the future in the face of AI. I often watch videos of people who drive with FSD for the first time. Those are the most intense reactions to a product I can remember. If one day we wake up and see self driving cars all around us, we will start…

You could have made the same prediction for the past 6-7 years and you would have been wrong every time. Sure, it might happen some day but I don't know why 2022 should be different from 2021.

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#246

Post by niknoble »

- Unity Software will hit $400 per share.

- The first serious mass-market VR haptics glove will be announced. By the end of the decade, most newly purchased consumer VR headsets will use haptic gloves instead of controllers.

- At some point during the year, SpaceX's Starship will reach orbit and then land successfully, but SpaceX will not attempt to send anything to Mars yet.

- Another machine learning model will go viral, generating a similar amount of excitement as GPT-3.

- Most people will still be wearing masks in Bay Area grocery stores at the end of the year.

- In 2022 or 2023, a disease that is not Covid will sweep through the world. The phrase "twin pandemics" will emerge and become popular.

- Republicans will win big in U.S. midterm elections.

- US media outlets will identify a surge in far right, nationalist sentiment among young people, with Nick Fuentes being a central figure.

- Crypto will become politicized. By the end of the year, it will be universally felt that support for crypto suggests right-wing sentiment.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#247

Post by adrianmsmith »

armchairhacker wrote: post #98
uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

I really don't see us ever locking down again. If we do lock down, it will be a half-assed "lock down", even more half-assed than before. Or it would be because of an especially bad variant, and even then it would have to be actually coordinated and enforced or there would be mass riots. I feel guilty saying it, but most people are tired of lockdowns and will refuse even if it's the moral choice. If we lock down in 2…

> I really don't see us ever locking down again.

I wish that were true. But I live in Austria (Europe) and there is a full lockdown starting tomorrow (Monday). Officially it's just going to be for a few weeks, but that's what they said every time before, and it always got extended before, so I don't have any reason to suspect this time will be different. I imagine (but I could be wrong) that it'll extend into 2022.

Perhaps it'll just be limited to Austria, but generally in the past when one country went into a lockdown other countries were in a lockdown a few weeks or a month later...

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#248

Post by austincheney »

niknoble wrote: post #246

- Unity Software will hit $400 per share. - The first serious mass-market VR haptics glove will be announced. By the end of the decade, most newly purchased consumer VR headsets will use haptic gloves instead of controllers. - At some point during the year, SpaceX's Starship will reach orbit and then land successfully, but SpaceX will not attempt to send anything to Mars yet. - Another machine learning model will go…

- Republicans will win big in U.S. midterm elections.

- US media outlets will identify a surge in far right, nationalist sentiment among young people, with Nick Fuentes being a central figure.

I agree with this first point for the same reason I disagree with the second. I think people are generally done with social media fueled extremes.

I think the Trump brand is done and the progressive agenda will be voted into a minority. I think people will be voting for more Republicans than Democrats in 2022 but the real winners from either party will be centrists/moderates talking about budgets.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#249

Post by schwartzworld »

5F7bGnd6fWJ66xN wrote: post #155
oars wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything in your post looked legitimate until you said COVID will die out in Q2 2022. Perhaps I am interpreting this sentence incorrectly and you meant the "economic effects of COVID will die out in Q2 2022"?

Yes, herd immunity will happen through both natural infection or vaccine induced infection. People will adjust and come back to work, school and economic activities.

> herd immunity will happen through both natural infection or vaccine induced infection.

People can catch covid more than once AND you can still transmit it when vaccinated. What leads you to believe herd immunity is even possible?

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#250

Post by blablabla123 »

chii wrote: post #236
blablabla123 wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think distrust in governments has already peaked, at least in Europe. The right conservatives have lost votes in the last elections. Also paradoxically Covid has proven conspiracy theorists wrong and further will since more anti-vaccination people will get seriously sick. On the other hand disillusionment in governments will be greater especially from the progressives because of Climate Change. The latter will prob…

> proven conspiracy theorists wrong the problem with conspiracies is that they don't require proof for their world-views!

That's true, it's mostly a feeling. On the other hand if looking at Qanon for instance. There are established politicians who kind of support it. I don't think they actually believe there are reptile people below the ground. I would assume it's rather a generic criticism of how things are going.
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