Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#211

Post by tasogare » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 5:54 PM UTC

armchairhacker wrote: post #98

uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

I really don't see us ever locking down again. If we do lock down, it will be a half-assed "lock down", even more half-assed than before. Or it would be because of an especially bad variant, and even then it would have to be actually coordinated and enforced or there would be mass riots. I feel guilty saying it, but most people are tired of lockdowns and will refuse even if it's the moral choice. If we lock down in 2…

I agree that at first a lockdown was arguably a somewhat half-reasonable option when the dangerousness of covid was unknown but since then it have been very clear that it's impacting only a very small segment of the population (very old people and those in overweight), yet it has been handled as if everyone were at risk.

At this point covid is a manufactured crisis used by governments as a power grab over citizens freedom, and pharmaceutical groups to get magic money. This has to stop. The lives of young people, who need to study, socialize, meet a partner, start a career are heavily negatively impacted by all those measures taken to save a few retired people that already did all those things. This is profoundly injust. Scared of covid? Then fine, do a personal lockdown but don't ask for the whole society and human interactions to stop for this. People would barely notice it's existence (like in Africa) if the media weren't speaking about it.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#212

Post by hereforphone » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 6:10 PM UTC

jstx1 wrote: post #198

hereforphone wrote: post #113

Hackernews comments will continue to devolve and become more Reddit-like on the whole. Someone will begin working on an alternative that will make them rich in 2024.

> alternative that will make them rich Given that HN doesn't make money, I doubt that any alternative would either.

It helps make money for its owners. It's not here for charity.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#213

Post by x1ph0z » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 6:10 PM UTC

tasogare wrote: post #211

armchairhacker wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really don't see us ever locking down again. If we do lock down, it will be a half-assed "lock down", even more half-assed than before. Or it would be because of an especially bad variant, and even then it would have to be actually coordinated and enforced or there would be mass riots. I feel guilty saying it, but most people are tired of lockdowns and will refuse even if it's the moral choice. If we lock down in 2…

I agree that at first a lockdown was arguably a somewhat half-reasonable option when the dangerousness of covid was unknown but since then it have been very clear that it's impacting only a very small segment of the population (very old people and those in overweight), yet it has been handled as if everyone were at risk. At this point covid is a manufactured crisis used by governments as a power grab over citizens fr…

Everyone is at risk, since people don’t suddenly die from COVID, they take hospital space and resources. So if covid patients start filling up ICU’s a hospital’s capacity to deal with other emergencies become limited. You and I may not be at direct risk of COVID but definitely will have an impact on our health.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#214

Post by x1ph0z » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 6:12 PM UTC

nickthemagicman wrote: post #154

pjc50 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

.. and death rates rise.

Florida and Texas seem to be doing just fine.

Ah yes Florida where jailing scientists and statisticians is par for the course

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#215

Post by x1ph0z » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 6:13 PM UTC

reaperducer wrote: post #115

jonathanlb wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It must be nice to belong to a demographic that is unaffected by politics.

90% of Americans aren't wrapped up in the manufactured anger industry. They just want to feed their family.

Must be nice to be in a demographic that you can believe this.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#216

Post by missedthecue » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 6:28 PM UTC

dillondoyle wrote: post #180

300bps wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. That's what the U.S. government needs. $29 trillion in debt paying $417 billion in interest per year = average interest of 1.43%. Now imagine average interest rate across the curve goes to 2.86% and now we're paying $834 billion in interest per year. Then it goes to 5% and we're paying $1.45 trillion in interest payments per year. That's over a third of the total…

This might be a dumb question... Are most of the treasuries we've already sold - e.g. I assume that's what $29 trillion in debt means - already fixed coupon rate from the govt? I know it trades on market which inverse reflects real return. Just googling I found floating rate notes, which seem to respond like an adjustable mortgage would. But they seem small and short term. But I do understand we have a deficit and ha…

Your thinking is correct, the only thing you're missing is how frequently the treasury rolls over debt into new debt. Most debt isn't 20 or 30 year bonds. Take a look at the link below and see how much of the total outstanding debt is in t-bills. These are instruments with a duration of less than a year. That means throughout the year, the treasury has to issue new debt to pay off the old debt, essentially refinancing constantly. This makes the government particularly vulnerable to interest rate risk.

https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/us-treasury-securit...

During the previous admin, there was talk of issuing a 100 year bond while rates were so low in order to reduce some of this risk, but nothing ever materialized. I'm not sure if this idea is on the present administration's radar at all.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-mnuchin-idUSK...

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#217

Post by ksaj » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 6:41 PM UTC

lvass wrote: post #181

ksaj wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's very interesting. That and dead pools never really had a practical way to operate. But now they do. Eventually it will happen, but I suspect that even before then, there will be some other added layer of plausible deniability come into existence. Incidentally, I'm not sure why you provided that particular link. It's not very fashionable to post links on HN without first checking if they even work. Cryptome has…

The link works and they're alive. I'm curious on why it doesn't work for you.

Well, that is weird then.

I get:

403: Forbidden

This error message is generated when the web server is trying to access a file that does not exist or has been configured incorrectly

So I asked Google if they were still around, and one of the links says they no longer are. I think there was a time that they were actually taken offline, so that comment might very well be outdated.

Maybe the error is a country thing. I'm in Canada. I used to be able to see their site no problem years ago.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#218

Post by nickthemagicman » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 6:52 PM UTC

x1ph0z wrote: post #214

nickthemagicman wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Florida and Texas seem to be doing just fine.

Ah yes Florida where jailing scientists and statisticians is par for the course

"A single data scientist amongst a department of data scientists, who did actual, illegal stuff, and is being charged for that."

"par for the course"

We have different measures of normalcy or different news sources.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#219

Post by pvaldes » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 7:06 PM UTC

jmnicolas wrote: post #56

I know nobody care but in 2022 I will lose my job because France will mandate vaccination at work.

This is a problem easy to avoid.

Alternatively you could choose to lie in an hospital bed with a plastic tube raping you orally non-stop 24/7 for four entire months as somebody that I know, but I would humbly suggest you to take any necessary measure so this never, ever, happens to you (or to one of your beloved ones). Don't be another stupid victim.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#220

Post by blablabla123 » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 7:22 PM UTC

t0bia_s wrote: post #147

Trust of public in governments and media fall dawn rapidly, because people will get more angry and tired of constant restrictions, massive surveillance and rising prices of everything. Eventually civil war here and there. Tendencies of green pass and deals will fall, because people simple will not be rich that much to afford "care to nature", priorities will be more focused on survive (financially, mentally, physical…

I think distrust in governments has already peaked, at least in Europe. The right conservatives have lost votes in the last elections. Also paradoxically Covid has proven conspiracy theorists wrong and further will since more anti-vaccination people will get seriously sick.

On the other hand disillusionment in governments will be greater especially from the progressives because of Climate Change. The latter will probably be pivotal and if both governments and economies fail to deliver, this will lead to disrupting changes in the way politics is done. In France there are already citizen councils since the Yellow vest protests (sparked by increased fuel taxes) and in Germany they are also being evaluated. I expect those to grow much stronger already in the upcoming year.